Even as the guy who was looking for some developmental work for Matt Zollers; and the guy who had written off any weight to wins and losses; and the guy who thinks run-oriented offenses are just less fun
than pass-oriented offenses…I will admit: the Mississippi State was enjoyable.
Yeah, it was closer than we wanted for a while. But Mississippi State was so perplexing in the quarterback-juggling-management and play calling that it never really felt like they were a threat to win the game.
The two pick-sixes and two giant Hardy runs also helped make this game a tidy victory.
And, in the end, that’s what you want in a season that won’t end in a Playoff appearance: fun! Breaking records, ripping off highlight-reel plays, seeing local guys make big impacts, getting to see the zany light show that Faurot can put on in the rare instance it gets a night game.
It was all fun.
(And, no, the penalties didn’t ruin it for me.)
Here’s the advanced box score:
State ran 39 more plays than Mizzou and had 109 fewer yards. I’m not sure how frequently that occurs in the college football ecosystem but it definitely happened on Saturday night. Mizzou also damn-near palindromed State in yards per play, with the Tigers going for 9.2 and the Bulldogs sitting at 3.9 yards per play.
When Missouri Has the Ball
So. Um. Awkward admission here. But…I actually had Ahmad Hardy at 296 yards on the day.
That’s not unusual to this specific game by any means. When you have a game that’s officiated by people and those people are anywhere between 5-10 yards away from the action and just use their standard human vision and memory to place the ball…you’re going to have some discrepancies from where the ball stopped and where you place it.
And while every officiating crew is different, this one tended to give an extra yard in several spotting adventures, meaning the yards a player actually accrued (verified by 4k and me being able to replay as much as I want with no time constraints) differed from where the ball was placed.
But that’s the beauty of the NCAA: while the NFL has an entire team of people that goes back and correctly adjusts yards, tackle accreditation, and all the detail stuff you miss in real-time, the NCAA says “ah you had a guy think it was this? Cool yeah we’ll just roll with that”.
The good news for you (and Mr. Hardy) is that a.) I’m not part of the NCAA, nor am I b.) affiliated with University of Missouri in any actionable way, nor does c.) anyone from those two institutions know who I am, read what I write, or care to change it.
And that’s a good thing. Records stand forever, regardless of what some dude in his basement says!
RUN THE F***ING BALL, KIRBY
Goal: At least a 46% success rate on the ground, 25 carries between Hardy and Roberts.
Actual: 51.4% success rate on the ground, 25 carries by Hardy on his own plus 9 from Roberts.
Winner: Missouri
Convert 3rd-Downs
Goal: At least a 42% success rate on 3rd-down.
Actual: 55% success rate on 3rd-down.
Winner: Missouri
Finish Your Dang Drives
Goal: At least 7 scoring opportunities created and at least 4.5 points per scoring opportunity (31 points)
Actual: 9 scoring opportunities created, 5.4 points per scoring opportunity (49 points)
Winner: Missouri
When Mississippi State Has The Ball
State ran 89 plays and STILL Mizzou had 35% of their defensive stops result in a havoc play. That is absurd. That’s 23 tackles for loss, forced fumbles, passes deflected, or interceptions. I know they gave up some points but it was an incredible defensive performance against an offense that was operating in the way they were comfortable in operating.
Stop The Run
Goal: 40% success rate on the ground.
Actual: 31.9% success rate on the ground.
Winner: Missouri
PRESSURE
Goal: At least 3 sacks on the day.
Actual: 5 sacks on two quarterbacks.
Winner: Missouri
The Little Things
Mississippi State had better punts, better kickoffs, and was perfect in field goal attempts. But losing the turnover battle and operating an average of 7 yards further back was not helpful to their win percentage. The win was big enough that this was no where close to a “win in the margins” game but Missouri’s upcoming opponent is very much a margin-thriving win-vehicle so, hopefully, Mizzou worked out some bugs against a lesser opponent at home.
On the demerit front…lol. Sometimes you have some whacky adventures in officiating and there’s not much you can do about it. SEC referees are not very good this year and probably won’t be up to league standard until 2027 or so. It’s a hard job and the mass wave of retiring’s at the end of the ‘22 and ‘23 season means these crews are still very new and working through things…all while doing something else as their 9-5. Just accept the fact that pass interference will have some intriguing interpretations, that refs will catch a facemask away from the play while someone is getting their arm karate chopped, and hope that you’re playing well enough that none of it matters.
Extra Points
I’m frankly shocked that State’s success rates were this high. The 2nd quarter looks correct but, given how many plays they needed to run, I would have assumed these numbers would be much lower.
Mizzou’s tracks well, though.
It’s very bad for your chances at a victory on the road when your three 4th-down plays go 1.) fumbled field goal snap, 2.) pick-six, 3.) incomplete pass and net -7 yards (or, -87 if you want to count all the fumble/INT return yards).
Again, the yardage here doesn’t match the vibes of the game but, again, State had to run SO MANY MORE PLAYS to keep up with what Mizzou was able to do in 39 fewer attempts.
The curse is broken! Missouri not only manage to win a game when they generated fewer than 20 1st-downs, they did so while generating the fewest 1st-downs of the year! And that’s the lesson you can learn from explosive plays: you don’t need to be efficient when you easily go for 50+ yards multiple times per game.
Conclusion
Ahmad Hardy is awesome and should definitely take home some hardware this year in addition to being on multiple All-American lists.
But Mississippi State is a uniquely terrible defense and Oklahoma is the opposite of that. It’ll be interesting to see how that game goes, especially with rumors of Beau Pribula potentially making a start? In 2025? 28 days after being carted off the field in an air cast and a wheel chair?
Regardless, this game was fun and a nice crowing achievement for the graduating seniors. If they want to make it even more memorable they are welcome to close out the year by beating Oklahoma and Arkansas as well.
