The Buffalo Bills continue their campaign, aiming for the AFC’s number one seed, this Sunday when they host the 4-3 Baltimore Ravens at the New Highmark Stadium. The Ravens have been road warriors this year (3-1 away from home) and should have their own franchise QB, Lamar Jackson, back for this game. A Bills victory here might not put Baltimore away when thinking playoffs, but it certainly makes it tougher for them to still fight for the so precious number one seed.
The Ravens have led by 10 or more
points in all three of their losses, and the defense is the reason. ESPN’s Ben Solak, citing Next Gen Stats, found that Baltimore ranks 29th in completion percentage allowed (64.8%) and 26th in yards per attempt (7.8) when the likelihood of a pass is 75 percent or higher (reminds me of a certain defensive group…). The pass rush isn’t the problem. Baltimore pressures 42 percent of the time in those spots, above the league average. The problem is that 40 percent of those throws go to receivers with at least three yards of separation, the third-highest rate in the league. Joe Burrow posted a perfect passer rating in the second half against them on Sunday, in a 35-13 Bengals win.
That is the defense the Bills (5-1) get after the bye, and it shapes this week’s list. Lamar Jackson is expected to play, with some uncertainty about how close to full strength he will be. Zay Flowers caught eight of 11 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati, even with Tyler Huntley throwing to him. On the other side, we don’t have a Ja’Marr Chase to create all that separation, but having DJ Moore back would certainly help.
With all of this in mind, here are my trending up and trending down Bills players who can be decisive in next Sunday’s matchup.
HEROES
Josh Allen, QB: The matchup is built for him
Baltimore plays zone on 61 percent of obvious passing downs, and a zone defense that rushes well but doesn’t close on routes is the defense Allen punishes. He was efficient against the Raiders: 23-of-33 for 255 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and he tied Jim Kelly’s franchise record for touchdown passes. Through six weeks, he leads the league in total dropback EPA at 58.6, per ESPN. Through five weeks, PFF had him first among quarterbacks in rate of positively graded plays (23.2%) and had him at a 90.8 grade in opponent territory, with ten red-zone touchdowns and no turnover-worthy plays. He is tied for the league lead with three fourth-quarter comebacks, per Pro Football Reference. Baltimore has blown three double-digit leads this season, and that is the kind of game he is best at finishing. We should see more of what we saw the last time those two teams met in Orchard Park, and Josh had to lead a comeback-from-behind victory.
Christian Benford, CB: After Brock Bowers, Zay Flowers is the assignment
Benford’s work on Brock Bowers deserves every bit of attention it got. Next Gen Stats counted 19 matchups against Bowers, 14 of them in man coverage, which was a career high against a tight end for Benford. Bowers was targeted five times with Benford on him, caught two for 23 yards, and had two pass breakups against him. Bowers’ two biggest catches, for 29 and 18 yards, came when someone else was covering him. CB played 64 of the defense’s 66 snaps. The Bills’ defense has allowed 15 touchdown passes, tied for the second-most in the league before Week 7. Jim Leonhard should have Benford traveling with Flowers on Sunday, and this matchup will be must-watch.
HEAD-SCRATCHERS
C.J. Gardner-Johnson, S: The experiment is not working
He was ejected before halftime in Las Vegas for spitting at a Raiders player, after 28 snaps (42%). The league suspended him for a game, and that’s why he’ll miss the Ravens game. The Bills signed him as a one-year veteran to stabilize the back end and to give them “an edge” with his bold attitude. Instead, we’ve had missed tackles and an act that couldn’t be further away from how Buffalo Bills football is played and appreciated.
It’s not just about his antics, though. His PFF grade last season was 51.6, 86th among 98 safeties, which is not far from where he is playing now. It seems he simply isn’t the starting safety he used to be. To be fair, there isn’t a big drop-off when Damar Hamlin plays in his place, and rookie Jalon Kilgore got 11 snaps against Las Vegas, with a third-down pass breakup and a touchdown allowed. He should be involved in the rotation going forward. Also, the safety spot is where I think a trade could change this defense the fastest. The deadline is November 10 at 4 p.m. ET, and Brandon Beane and Leonhard will decide whether the in-house options are enough.
Terrel Bernard, LB: Sunday might be the final test of his role
Bernard is the defense’s main communicator, and the defense has had communication problems. The coaches have already tested snaps without him, with Kaleb Elarms-Orr getting 22 snaps in Las Vegas, some of them next to Dorian Williams, while Bernard played 53 (80%). PFF graded him 53.9 overall (60th among 75 linebackers) and 44.8 in coverage (64th of 75), which should be his strength. His run defense has been ok (69.1, 28th of 75), but Henry will be a test. He ran 17 times for 45 yards against Cincinnati, averages 3.9 yards per carry, and has gone three games without a rushing touchdown, but with Lamar back, things normally get easier for him.
Bernard has to start impacting games more often. He’s the captain, and it’s expected of him. He might be in danger of losing his job if not, after all, there are options — KEO has been getting opportunities, Shaq Thompson is on the practice squad, and a linebacker could be a deadline target too.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Trending Up
- James Cook, RB: He ran for 95 yards and the go-ahead touchdown in Las Vegas. Baltimore’s pattern of losing leads in the second half, with their defense getting tired and allowing run games to succeed, means the Bills will probably have success insisting with the running game late in the game.
- Keon Coleman, WR: Without DJ Moore in Las Vegas, Coleman played 58 of 68 snaps and caught four passes for 59 yards and the touchdown that tied Kelly’s record. A defense with this much open-receiver trouble should give him room.
- Davison Igbinosun, CB: He played 42 snaps against the Raiders and allowed one catch on five targets, per PFF. Leonhard has said he has the majority of the snaps at the position, and with Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews on the other side, he will be tested early.
Trending Down
- Bradley Chubb, EDGE: He played 21 snaps against the Raiders and had one pressure on 11 pass rushes, while rookie T.J. Parker played 41 snaps and had two pressures on 29. Parker’s numbers aren’t dominant, but he has shown some potential. A rib injury opened the door, and if Chubb doesn’t raise his level, Parker’s share grows. The Bills got 12 pressures against Las Vegas and no sack of Cousins, and whether Jackson plays at full speed or Huntley starts again, they need more from the edge opposite Greg Rousseau.
- Maxwell Hairston, CB: He played 26 snaps (39%) in Las Vegas and has lost the starting spot to Igbinosun, while Tre’Davious White is back on the practice squad as a backup plan/warning. Hairston graded 40.0 overall this season (97th of 103 CBs), 36.4 in coverage (99th of 103 CBs), and 59.5 against the run (62nd of 103 CBs). Baltimore’s offense asks outside corners to tackle on screens and run plays, so his rotation snaps matter.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Baltimore’s defense is not a good one right now. It rushes the passer well enough, but it cannot cover, and it has been dreadful in second halves. That gives the Bills an edge on offense, but the defense still needs a fix. The safeties and the linebackers are the ones needing to step up the most, in my opinion. Two of the three starters are under scrutiny (Gardner-Johnson and Bernard), and the others aren’t exactly setting the world on fire either.
I expect the Bills to target reinforcements at those positions, but this Baltimore game is one more opportunity for those players in the roster to show they can get the job done. If you are Brandon Beane before November 10, is your first call a safety or a linebacker? Derwin James is my favorite name right now, and I believe he could be awesome in this defense with his versatility.
Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of Leading the Charge!
