The New England Patriots are headed to Buffalo this week for their second division game of the season. A result similar to the first one — a 33-27 win in Miami — would be a major success for the team of head coach Mike Vrabel, but also a massive surprise given its status as 8.5-point underdogs.
The Patriots pulling off the upset will depend on their ability to play a fairly clean game in all three phases, something they have only managed to do sporadically this season.
“I think that certainly it will
be a huge challenge,” Vrabel said. “The last time they lost at home was 14 games ago. We’re well aware of that and have to do a lot of really good things to give ourselves a chance. They’re, playing good football, they’re playing clean football, they’re not beating themselves and they’re doing a nice job in all phases.”
However, as a look at our head-to-head comparison shows, New England does have potential to come away with a win.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Bills pass defense: No pass defense in the NFL has surrendered fewer yards (503) or a lower net yards per attempt number (4.5) than the Bills’ four weeks into the season; the unit is also ranked seventh in EPA per play (-0.023). That being said, it has not gone up against a murderer’s row of quarterbacks either, with the exception of Week 1, when Lamar Jackson posted an impressive 0.53 EPA per dropback. Drake Maye is no Lamar Jackson yet, but he is at least one step above those other QBs the Bills have played against so far. If he can bring his A-game, and his supporting cast holds up its end of the bargain too, Buffalo’s pass defense will be in for a battle. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Bills pass offense: This is all about one man: Josh Allen. The Bills’ starting quarterback is a definitive problem due to his ability to make plays with his arm and his legs, and he is once again among the most prolific players in the league this season. That does not mean New England’s pass defense is necessarily in for a tough ride against the reigning league MVP — in fact, it actually matches up fairly well with Buffalo from an 11 on 11 perspective, particularly with Christian Gonzalez back in the fold — but until it shows it can stop him, Allen has earned getting the benefit of the doubt. | Edge: Bills
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Bills run defense: On paper, the Patriots should have the edge in this matchup. Their running back trio of Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson and Antonio Gibson has clear potential to do some damage on the ground; the execution last week against Carolina was mostly on point; and the Bills rush defense has not looked particularly sharp this season. Consistency remains a major concern, though, which is why this battle should be quite competitive — especially if the Bills get Matt Milano and Ed Oliver back. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots run defense vs. Bills rushing offense: New England’s run defense generally looked good early in the season, but it had its issues against the Panthers in Week 4. Now, it will go up against the best rushing team in the NFL: the Bills are ranked first in football in rushing yards (654), touchdowns (9) and EPA per run (0.026) while also ranking third in success rate (47.4%) and seventh in yards per carry (4.9). A lot of it is due to AFC Offensive Player of the Month James Cook, who the Patriots will need to find a way to contain in order to slow down Buffalo’s ground game. Not sure they will be able to do that on a consistent basis. | Edge: Bills
Special teams
The two AFC East rivals are trending in opposite directions in the kicking game. The Patriots have started building some consistency, with rookie kicker Andy Borregales starting to string positives together and Marcus Jones once again proving himself as a game changer at punt returner. On the other hand, the Bills will be using their third punter (and holder) of the season on Sunday while also not yet showing the same big play potential New England has. | Edge: Patriots
Coaching
The Patriots have shown some development through the early stages this season, and have been able to take their weekly points of emphasis to heart. However, questions still remain when it comes to fundamentals, something that will be crucial against Buffalo. New England hurting itself with penalties or missed tackles, for example, is not a recipe for success against the Bills. Obviously, the home team will not be immune to those either, but on the whole they seem like a better overall squad when it comes to the fundamentals — a reflection of their coaching staff. | Edge: Bills
Verdict
Despite the Bills being a clear favorite for Sunday’s primetime game, there is a path for the Patriots to victory. One key element of it will obviously be keeping Josh Allen in check, a task far easier said than done. In fact, the 29-year-old could just end up being the difference in this one: the teams are relatively evenly matched in a lot of areas, but Buffalo still has the edge at quarterback; Allen simply can do things that few if no other players in the league can, especially at a consistent level. That might be enough, even though his Patriots counterpart, Drake Maye, has shown that he too can carry his team to victory.
