Admittedly, there is nothing more challenging than doing analysis on the fly. All numbers that appear in the lab during the regular season are a snapshot in time. In April, the impacts of one or two games can have quite an effect on the overall numbers. However, we are trying to look at things holistically and when that happens the numbers have a little more value.
Coming into play the Rockies, the Astros had the number one offense in MLB. They were number one in almost every category. The most telling
category is walks. It seems foolish to say, but nothing gets more giddy and excited than walks. It is the single most underappreciated stat in baseball. Certainly, the season is only two weeks old, but the change has been noticeable.
Before I dive into the numbers I should make a few admissions. First, my username for SBNation is “VBallretired”. I took that name because I am a retired volleyball coach. Admittedly, my career as a coach was short. I quit coaching when my daughter was very young because I wanted to see her grow up. I’ll never regret that decision. I say all that to say that I know how difficult coaching is. I also know that what happens on the field or court is not always a reflection of the message you are giving to the players.
Alex Cintron and Troy Snitker were the guys for the last several years (since 2018 for Cintron). I am not in the clubhouse. I am not an insider. I don’t know the message that was being communicated. I can only see the results. The results were pretty clear. The Astros were less selective overall, more aggressive early in counts, and not particularly effective in situational hitting situations with men on base. Those are the facts. Whether they were coached to do those things or not is unknown.
As a former coach, I can attest to the fact that some teams take to your core message and resemble the kind of team you envision. Some teams don’t. I definitely get it. So, I will not completely crap on Cintron and Snitker except to say that the team was not effective offensively and it was time for a new voice (or voices). Sometimes people’s voices get drowned out for whatever reason. However, the numbers below are a testament to the idea that coaches can have an effect. A number of fans and analysts didn’t think it mattered. Players are who they are. That is certainly true to a certain extent, but it is not universally true.
We are looking at three process numbers do demonstrate what has been happening in the early going. The first number is chase rate. As a reminder, 30 percent tends to be around the league average. We are comparing each player’s 2025 rate with the 2026 rate. So, league norms are not necessarily relevant. The second number is swing percentage. it is followed by zone percentage which is the percentage of pitches that actually wind up in the zone. 50 percent tends to be average on both counts. Again, we are more interested in 2025 versus 2026. Numbers are accurate through the end of the Athletics series.
I should start with the usual caveats and disclaimers. I use the word aggregate because it is the numerical average of all of the numbers. It doesn’t represent differences in who actually gets the plate appearances. It also doesn’t represent the actual roster employed last season. In particular, Nick Allen is much more patient than Mauricio Dubon, so we included Allen because coaches have to be graded based on what they do with what they have and not based on what they have.
Dans Brown’s job is to give Joe Espada the very best roster he can. Espada’s job is to employ that roster to maximum effect. From there, the hitting and pitching coaches are charged with getting as many of their charges to hit or pitch their very best. Given all of those caveats we can begin to digest these numbers to figure out what they might mean long-term.
We will start on the right hand side of the ledger. The zone percentage represents the percentage of pitches that hitters see in the zone. Clearly, teams are not challenging Astros hitters very much. Of course, there are multiple reasons for that. On the one hand, it could be a bigger trend based on past performance. If I were coaching against the Astros, I would probably tell me pitchers to test the Astros hitters and their strike zone judgment. In particular, Diaz, Altuve, and Pena have been free swingers. Why give them a lot to hit?
On the other hand, they have gone up against three teams so far. Even if we include the Rockies, we would see four teams expected to be near the bottom of the standings. The Red Sox might be the notable exception to that rule, but no one has high hopes for the Athletics, Angels, or Rockies pitchers. So, maybe they are just incapable of getting it in the zone consistently.
Either way, the Astros have responded by swinging less often and chasing less often. I’m certain that the actual 2025 numbers would be worse than what we see above. So, the difference is that much more stark. It clearly reflects the messaging going to hitters. Of course, only those inside the clubhouse would know whether the message has changed considerably. Often the key to good coaching is not the message itself, but in how it is communicated. Clearly, the message is the right one and so far it is being communicated in a way most of the hitters can digest. From here, Joe Espada will need to manipulate the lineups to take fuller advantage of those performing and Brown will need to shape the roster by possibly moving some of these guys not performing. That is the way this whole thing works. Of course, the rubber will meet the road when the Astros finally see a good pitching staff in Seattle.
