The Wisconsin Badgers drew a No. 5 seed for the second time in three years in the NCAA Tournament, as they’ll play the No. 12 High Point Panthers on Thursday at the Moda Center.
Wisconsin is entering the tournament hot, being winners of five in a row before falling to the Michigan Wolverines in a close three-point loss. In that stretch, the Badgers beat the Purdue Boilermakers and Illinois Fighting Illini, which were key in them jumping up a seed line to earn the last No. 5 seed.
Now, Wisconsin faces
a High Point offense that ranks fifth in the country in scoring (90.0 points per game), and naturally, they’re seen as an upset candidate. The biggest upsets that we’ve generally seen in the NCAA Tournament have come from the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups, but this year’s betting lines are as wide as ever with ESPN’s BPI projections.
After four matchups had an upset chance (11 seed or lower) greater than 40 percent and eight were greater than 25 percent in 2025, there are zero matchups with an upset chance greater than 40 percent and only one No. 12 seed or lower has an upset chance above 20 percent.
That one team? The High Point Panthers, whom ESPN’s Giant Killers model gives a 24 percent chance to upset Wisconsin, which is easily the highest of any No. 12 seed. In fact, ESPN’s model gives High Point a better chance to upset Wisconsin than it does No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville (19 percent).
“High Point is the only 12-seed with at least a 20% chance to win, according to the model, and this could be one of the highest-scoring games of the first round,” ESPN’s Keith Lipscomb wrote.
“The Panthers are all about turnover differential. They are in the top five nationally in turnover rate at both ends of the court and score 21 points per game off miscues. However, no one is better at avoiding live-ball turnovers than Wisconsin, and the Badgers shoot it well, too. Wisconsin guards John Blackwell and Nick Boyd have combined for 50 points per game over their past four outings, so slowing that duo will be critical for High Point.”
For reference, the model gives No. 12 McNeese a 19 percent chance to upset No. 5 Vanderbilt, No. 12 Akron an 18 percent chance to upset No. 5 Texas Tech, and No. 12 Northern Iowa a 15 percent chance to upset St. John’s.
Wisconsin is hoping to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017. But they will have some challenges ahead of them to do so.
