The Detroit Lions are 2-1, adding to their win column after knocking off an up-and-coming New York Jets team. But if you check the temperature of the more reactionary corners of the fanbase, they’re unimpressed and uninspired. After the shortcomings on defense snowballed—yet again—in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game, those unimpressed feel little confidence in this team’s chances when it comes to accomplishing big-picture goals.
But really though, why care so much in the here and now about the ultimate
objective of Super Bowl viability? Why are people talking about this team like the playoffs start in a couple weeks? It’s not even October! The team with a winning record has some warts in the secondary, but after spending a weekend out and about, chatting with folks from the grocery store to the golf course and dive bars in between, you would have thought they were a winless bunch of sucks; a hopeless group watching their window slam shut on their fingers.
The secondary is bad. That doesn’t mean the Lions are bad. And coming to a verdict on their ceiling based on their performances through three weeks is premature.
That’s not me being dismissive of the very serious problems in the secondary. Be it some mix of coaching, scheme, and/or personnel, Geno Smith shouldn’t have done what he did in Week 3. Smith’s +21.1 completion percentage over expected, defined by NFL Next Gen Stats as, “the difference between a quarterback’s actual completion percentage and expected completion percentage controlling for the level of difficulty of each pass,” was nearly 11% higher than the quarterback who finished second in Week 3 (Patrick Mahomes, +10.25). Smith was second in tight-window rate (27%), the percentage of passes where the targeted receiver has less than 1 yard of separation when the pass arrives. It appears as though Nevin Lawson crawled so Roger McCreary could also come up just shy of making a play.
The secondary was in better position to make plays this week, but there were still missed assignments, miscommunication, and missed opportunities to make a play and get off the field on third down. The guys on the backend still have to make plays in coverage, not just on blitzes where they’re forcing game-winning turnovers—nothing like waiting until the very last moment, Chuck Clark!
It’s with much regret that it’s my job to inform you the secondary for the Detroit Lions is in rough shape. Despite you knowing that their starting safeties are both on PUP, and their No. 1 cornerback as of three months ago is now facing up to life in prison as a member of the Seattle Seahawks, here’s a chance to remind you the most turbulent spot on the roster is experiencing some choppy air while they’re attempting to build the plane with the wheels up.
The issues in the secondary are all anyone can talk about, so we’re going to see people ignore the rest of the defense’s performance against the Jets. “I just can’t ignore the secondary’s play and pretend like this is a team capable of contending for a Super Bowl” is the low-hanging, drive-time topic of conversation after this most recent game.
They’ll ignore Geno Smith getting sacked five times for 44 yards. Pretty sweet the pass rush is second in time to pressure (2.46 seconds) and 10th in quarterback pressure rate (39.0%)! And what about that run defense, eh? 3.1 yards per carry, third in stuff rate (percentage of run plays resulting in no gain or loss: 26.3%), and sixth in rushing EPA per play allowed (-0.23). Some things to hang your hat on if you’re Kelvin Sheppard, but it doesn’t mean it’s time to rest. It never is in the NFL, and there’s still plenty of work to be done.
Also, more good news: there’s no reason to assume the secondary you see now will be the one this team has in January! It sure doesn’t sound like Brad Holmes and the front office are waiting until it’s too late to try and improve at the cornerback position after early-morning reports Sunday about the Lions showing interest in Joey Porter Jr. If it doesn’t end up being the big name in Porter Jr., maybe that player Detroit needs could come from any other number of the 0-3 teams with their playoff hopes actually on life support.
Imagine watching that game against the Jets, getting to see Jahmyr Gibbs pass Billy Sims for second place in rushing touchdowns by a Detroit Lion in eight fewer games, and still letting the secondary ruin your afternoon. The offense scored 30+ points for the third consecutive game without a Ben Johnson in sight and you’re letting the cornerbacks get you bent out of shape? Are you new here? Were you around when the practice field hill was built and the ping pong tables removed?
At the end of the day, the Lions won despite their significant weakness in the secondary rearing its ugly head at the worst possible moment, but there is plenty of time for roster tinkering that could address their glaring weaknesses. Detroit is 2-1, and you haven’t even nailed down a date for a trip to the pumpkin patch. Take a look around the NFC: if there’s a world beater, point ‘em out. There isn’t a single team around here that is free from defects. There’s a long way between now and Week 18, so until then, buckle up if you’re in for the ride.
