The Braves had a major starting pitching disadvantage in Game 1 of their NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday.
While the Dodgers trotted out one of the best pitchers in baseball, Tarik Skubal, on extra rest, Atlanta was forced to begin with a bullpen game due to its rash of late-season pitching injuries and the fact that its wild-card series against the Phillies earlier in the week went three games.
While there was the thought that Chris Sale would bounce back from his relief
appearance in Thursday’s Game 3 of the wild-card series on one day of rest to start Sunday’s Game 2 of the NLDS, that won’t be the case.
The Braves will instead have left-hander Ray Kerr (0-0, 0.00 ERA in postseason), who delivered as an opener in Thursday’s winner-take-all game against the Phillies, start Sunday night’s Game 2 (8 p.m. on FS1).
Sale, who would have been in line to start Game 2 on normal rest, threw 21 pitches to record the final four outs Thursday on his normal bullpen day.
The 32-year-old Kerr, who made his postseason debut Thursday and wrote another chapter in his long and winding journey to the majors, allowed just one hit and one walk over 3 1/3 scoreless innings, doing his job against the challenging top of the Phillies order.
He’ll have an even tougher task against a Dodgers lineup which will have Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman as challenging left-handed bats in the top few spots of the order. But Los Angeles’ lineup is far more balanced and lethal than Philadelphia’s, making for a more difficult all-around challenge in Kerr’s second career postseason start.
Kerr is on two days’ rest from throwing 47 pitches, so it’s a little unclear how many pitches he’ll be available for in this game. The better news for the Braves is that they’ll have a mostly full allotment of their top bullpen arms available for this game after Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias were relied on heavily in the wild-card round.
While Sale could in theory be available for a limited pitch count Sunday, it seems far more likely they’re holding him back for Game 3 in Atlanta on Tuesday with the hope that the Braves aren’t in a 2-0 hole.
The Dodgers, in pretty much the exact opposite situation to the Braves, announced their full-series pitching plan before it began. That plan sees left-hander Blake Snell (4-1, 1.90 ERA) get the ball for Game 2 with a chance to grab a 2-0 lead before the series flips to Atlanta.
Snell made just nine starts this regular season, missing the start of the year due to left shoulder fatigue and then loose bodies in his throwing elbow which sidelined him an additional three months after he made his first start.
Since returning and being able to stay healthy since August, though, he’s been effective. He’s thrown five-plus innings in six of his eight starts over the last two months, allowing no more than one run in any outing. He had a 1.17 ERA in four August starts and a 1.08 ERA in four September starts. Over that span, he has 50 strikeouts to 14 walks over 39 2/3 innings.
Snell’s metrics, albeit in a small sample size, look great with his xERA (2.17) not far above his actual ERA.
Snell also has a strong track record in the postseason, with a 7-5 record and 3.27 ERA over 18 games (15 starts) spanning four postseasons with the Rays (2019-20), Padres (2022) and Dodgers (2025). Last season for Los Angeles, he pitched in six postseason games (five starts) with a 3-2 record and 3.18 ERA over 34 innings. He took the loss in Game 5 of the World Series, giving up five runs on six hits over 6 2/3 innings, but then tossed 1 1/3 scoreless innings of relief on two days’ rest in Game 7.
Snell’s lone start of this season before August came against the Braves on May 9 in Los Angeles. Atlanta tagged him for five runs (four earned) on six hits over three innings, handing him his only regular-season loss. In six career appearances against the Braves, Snell is 0-3 with a 3.49 ERA but has never faced them in the postseason.
Once again, it would seem the odds are stacked against the Braves Sunday night. They’ll likely need to beat those odds this time to have a realistic chance at keeping their season alive and advancing to the NLCS.
