With the season opener against the New York Giants just a few days away, it is once again time for my annual Bold Predictions for the upcoming season.
Something is different this year from all previous editions. The Commanders are entering the 2025 season as established playoff contenders. That would have seemed fanciful this time last year, which makes some of last season’s bold predictions look fairly tame in hindsight. It also raises the bar substantially for this season’s predictions.
But I am
up to the challenge. Please remember, the emphasis is on boldness, not accuracy.
Before we take on 2025, let’s review last year’s predictions. Debunking myths and fear mongering about the OT situation kept me so busy last year that I only managed to produce seven predictions. But there were some good ones.
2024 Bold Predictions Recap
1. Jayden Daniels will take fewer than 40 sacks – INCORRECT, but…
Daniels took 47 sacks in the regular season and collected 4 more in the postseason.
To put this prediction in last preseason’s context – concern for Jayden Daniels’ safety – the number of potentially harmful sacks was much lower than the total might suggest. Seventeen of JD’s credited sacks were for loss of 0 or 1 yds. These were mostly plays where he escaped the pocket and stepped out of bounds without being contacted. So, the number of sacks involving a tackle might be less than 30.
2. Jayden Daniels will win OROY – CORRECT
Jayden rewarded long suffering fans with one of the greatest rookie performances of all time. It was at least the best rookie season performance by a Washington QB since Sammy Baugh led the Redskins to the 1937 NFL Championship. In addition to OROY, Jayden made the Pro Bowl and finished 7th in MVP voting.
3. Terry McLaurin will have his first season over 1,200 receiving yards – CORRECT
Note how I didn’t specify regular season or total season – because it never occurred to me the Commanders would make the playoffs. Terry finished the 2024 season with 1,323 receiving yards. The Commanders would have been unlikely to make it to the playoffs without him, earning him and me the benefit of the doubt on this one.
4. Dorance Armstrong will record at least 12 sacks – INCORRECT
Dorance finished the regular season with just 5 sacks, and added 3.5 more in the playoffs, for a total of 8.5. He will do better this season.
5. Johnny Newton will have more sacks than Chase Young this season – INCORRECT
Johnny recorded just 2 sacks in his rookie campaign, putting him 3.5 sacks behind Young. He will catch Young this season.
6. Andrew Wylie will allow 6 sacks this season – INCORRECT
In hindsight, I greatly underestimated Wylie. But I was hardly Robinson Crusoe on that front. PFF credits him with 0 sacks allowed in 17 regular season and playoff games. Wylie started the 2024 season under a cloud. Entering the 2025 season he is well regarded as a versatile offensive lineman, capable of backing up both RG and RT positions, or filling in while rookie Josh Conerly comes up to speed.
7. The Commanders will knock Dallas out of the playoffs in Week 18 – INCORRECT
I am embarrassed to admit, I overestimated Jerruh’s ‘boys. Dallas was effectively out of playoff contention when they delivered an embarrassing 26-34 loss to the Commanders in Week 12. What the hell was I thinking?
TOTAL SCORE: 2/7 Correct
2025 Bold Predictions
1. The Commanders will be a better team than last year, but will win fewer than 11 regular season games
It will be hard to replicate the magic which propelled the Commanders to so many fourth quarter comebacks and game winning drives last season, particularly since they won’t have the advantage of beng unlikely underdogs this year. Or will it? JD5 will be more experienced and DQ is still dawg-ass.
While much of the roster is improved, they will be facing a tougher schedule and fewer injured or otherwise ineffective QBs. Once they get to the post-season, all bets are off. I won’t even try to predict how far they can go.
2. Terry McLaurin will have his first regular season over 1,200 receiving yards
I predicted he’d do it last year, and I’m doubling down this year. Terry committed himself to producing like a top WR during the contract extension talks. So he’d better not make me come up short this time.
Washington receivers have only exceeded 1,200 yards 12 times in franchise history. Gary Clark is the franchise leader with three seasons over 1,200 yards and one over 1,300. Santa Moss owns the highest receiving total at 1,483 yds; while Bobby Mitchell achieved the highest per game average (102.6 yds) in 1963, with 1,436 receiving yards in a 14 game season.
To break Mitchell’s record, Terry would need to reach 1,745 receiving yards in 17 games. That is highly unlikely in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, which is predicated on spreading the ball around to stretch defenses. McLaurin is one of only two receivers to exceed 1,000 regular season receiving yards under Kingsbury, along with DeAndre Hopkins (2020: 1,407 yds). Breaking 1,200 receiving yards would be quite an accomplishment.
3. Dorance Armstrong will have the breakout season I predicted last year
Armstrong had quietly achieved impressive pass rushing productivity as a rotational player behind established starters in Dallas. In his first starting opportunity in Washington, PFF credited him with 6 regular season sacks and 46 total pressures, very similar numbers to the player he replaced (Montez Sweat: 6 sacks, 49 pressures).
Armstrong has looked more explosive in camp and preseason this year, and the team is looking to use him more inside where he can be more effective. With more help from the LBs, iDL, and the Von Miller/Jacob Martin tag team, I think he is set to explode. But he might not make the ambitious 12 sack mark I set for him last season, with teammates stealing opportunities. I’ll count this as a win if he gets to double digits.
4. Frankie Luvu will lead the team in sacks
Luvu was second on the team with 8 regular season sacks last year and one in the post-season. Count on Joe Whitt and Dan Quinn getting him more involved in the pass rush this year. I’m expecting the Commander from Tafuna to reach 12 sacks this year. That might be a little hopeful, but I am confident he will lead the team.
5. Javontae Jean-Baptiste will be the surprise breakout player on defense
This prediction is based on reading the tea leaves around what we haven’t seen, rather than what we have seen.
GM Adam Peters has shown himself to be agressive in pursuit of players to address roster weaknesses. He dealt draft picks to the Saints for Marshon Lattimore at the trade dealine, to allow the team to move on from Benjamin St-Juste. Then he drafted Trey Amos in the second round. In the offseason, he traded even more draft picks to Houston for Laremy Tunsil and picked an OT in the first round, then used the pick he got back in the Lattimore deal to get Deebo Samuel to fortify the WR room.
Compared to those moves, his approach to addressing the team’s biggest weakness – RDE – has appeared lackadaisical. Veteran Deatrich Wise Jr. was brought in on a one year, $3.2 million contract to compete with, and ultimately replace underperforming starter Clelin Ferrell. No defensive ends were drafted or signed as UDFAs. Wise has only been a primary starter for three of eight NFL seasons. His productivity peaked between 2019 and 2021 and has been declining over the past three years. This move screams “place holder”. But who is he holding the place for?
I suspect the Commanders already had someone they liked on the roster. By process of elimination, that player has to be JJB. Jean-Baptiste did not wow as a rookie, but he got more playing time on defense than most seventh round picks. The coaching staff praised his development in camp. But he was only given 7 defensive snaps in preseason, the same as starting LDE Dorance Armstrong. By comparison, the two returning players who were eventually cut, Andre Jones Jr and Clelin Ferrell, were given the most preseason snaps at DE. Jean-Baptiste’s utilization in preseason was more like an established starter than a player the coaching staff needed to see more from.
I predict that Javontae will get opportunities early, and will be pushing Wise for starting reps by the end of the season.
6. Bill Croskey-Merritt will rush for over 900 yds in the regular season
Given the hype Bill has generated in the preseason, this one might seem a little tame. Far from it. Kliff Kingsbury’s habit of spreading the ball around is not conducive to high single-player rushing totals.
Croskey-Merritt’s explosive speed and willingness in pass protection is a perfect fit for Kingsbury’s offense. If he can prove himself as a receiver, he will become the feature back.
Even so, he will be sharing time with Chris Rodriguez, Austin Ekeler and Deebo Samuel. Nevertheless, I predict that he will have the second highest rushing total of any of Kingsbury’s previous RBs and exceed Brian Robinson’s personal best by over 100 yds.
The only RB to exceed 900 regular season rushing yards in Kingsbury’s offense was Kenyan Drake, with 955 yds in 2020.
7. RT Josh Connerly will get his Pressure Rate in pass protection below 7% by the end of the season
After a bumpy start, Connerly will make good progress toward establishing himself as a quality starter by the end of his rookie season.
The range from 5 to 6% Pressure Rate is the key indicator of OTs’ career prospects. OTs with Pressure Rates consistently below 5% get locked up by their teams as long-term starters. Between 5 and 6%, an OT might be allowed to walk in free agency. But he’ll find starting work with another team, in some capacity. OT’s who allow Pressure Rates above 6%, generally transition to guard or backup roles, if they stay in the NFL. Starting status and salaries don’t seem to correlate as well with run blocking.
Some OT’s, like Tristan Wirfs and Joe Alt, achieve Pressure Rates below 5% right off the bat. They tend to get drafted in the top 15. Most OTs struggle initially in pass protection. The ones who make it as starters may take between one and four NFL seasons to get their Pressure Rates down to starting level.
I predict that Conerly will be a quick study, and eventually carve out a role as the Commanders’ starting left tackle.
8. Trey Amos will emerge as the top lockdown CB in the rookie class
Specifically, I am predicting Amos he will allow the lowest Yards/Coverage Snap among rookie CBs who play a minimum of 300 coverage snaps in the regular season.
The stats that are normally cited regarding coverage performance are interceptions and PBUs, sometimes even Passer Rating when targeted. These all describe what happens after the CB has failed in his first responsibility to prevent his receivers from getting open. These stats are also based on rare events that happen less than once a game. Y/Cov Snap measures a CB’s ability to prevent receivers from gaining yardage on a down to down basis.
My pre-draft roundup of CBs the Commanders should draft identified Amos as a player who excelled at lockdown coverage and ballhawking, which makes him fairly unusual. Adam Peters noticed the same thing when he made Amos the Commanders second round pick. Treynavion is going to be a star. But what doesn’t show up on his stat sheet might be more important than what does.
9. The Commanders will have a top-3 scoring offense
Last season the Commanders had the fifth highest scoring offense in the NFL. They were also 7th in total yardage, 4th in EPA/play, and 5th in offensive Success Rate. Since then, they have upgraded the OL, receiving corps and RB room, and Jayden Daniels has had another NFL offseason to perfect his craft.
Another offseason to build chemistry in Kingsbury’s system will see them make gains against the teams ahead of them. But resurgences by teams like the Chiefs, 49ers and Eagles, and competition from the Bucs could spoil the party.
10. Run defense on the right side will continue to be the team’s biggest weakness
The Commanders’ biggest weakness last season was run defense, and their Achilles’ heel was the right side of the defensive line.
The team made significant upgrades to the secondary, and there are hopeful signs of second year players and rookies strengthening the LB corps.
I am less confident that Javon Kinlaw, Johnny Newton and Deatrich Wise Jr will be a substantial improvement over Jonathan Allen, Newton and Clelin Ferrell on the right side of the line. The wild card in the pack is Javontae Jean-Baptiste, as I have already mentioned. When and how much he is able to contribute to strengthening the run defense around the right end could be pivotal to fixing the biggest weakness on defense. I am hopeful, but not confident enough to put money on it.
11. Isaac TeSlaa will be this year’s Day 2 WR who outperforms his first round classmates
Wide Receiver is notoriously difficult to project to the NFL. I have made an annual tradition of trying to predict which rookie who will outproduce most of the players picked ahead of him, without once getting it right.
I would like to pick the Chargers’ Tre’ Harris. But that would hardly be a bold call. He’s guaranteed to be a star.
Instead, I’m going with the Lions’ third round pick, Isaac TeSlaa. The Lions raised eyebrows when they made TeSlaa the 10th WR off the board, four full rounds ahead of his media consensus of 244th overall.
Between Lions’ GM Brad Holmes and a bunch of media pundits, I’m going with Holmes every time. Despite fairly limited utilization at Arkansas, TeSlaa stood out from the draft class as a premier deep threat with exceptional hands and athleticism to make tough and contested catches. In hindsight, it is a wonder that a player with elite measurables and upside was projected to go as late as he was by media analysts. The Lions might have let the cat out of the bag when they featured TeSlaa in the preseason so I might get knocked for not going bold enough. Other WR sleepers to watch are Pat Bryant (Broncos), Jaylin Noel (Texans), Dont’e Thronton (Raiders), the Commanders’ Jaylin Lane, Jalen Royals (Chiefs), La Johntay Wester (Ravens), and UDFA Elijhah Badger (Chiefs).
12. The Carolina Panthers will play in the Super Bowl
My son, Sam in Bris Vegas, put me on to this one. It has already gone viral on Tic Toc and Instagram. For the benefit of older readers who don’t keep up with social media, here is why the Carolina Panthers are predestined to play in Super Bowl LX.
The Panthers have made previous Super Bowl appearances in the 2003 and 2015 seasons.
Ohio State – Both of those seasons followed a national championship win by the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes won their next national championship last season.
J. Lo – Both of the Panthers’ Super Bowl appearances took place in years that Jennifer Lopez was divorced. J.Lo’s third divorce took place in January of this year.
Super Bowl Logo – Since the reintroduction of colored Super Bowl logs in 2021, each game logo has featured the team colors of the two opponents. (Super Bowl logo afficionados may object that the LVIII logo was red and purple, not a great match for the 49ers and Chiefs. However, this was the first Super Bowl featuring Taylor Swift, whose favorite color is purple). The Super Bowl LX logo features a heavy dose of Carolina Blue.
Previous season – Each Super Bowl appearance has followed a losing season. The Panthers went 5-12 last season.
Head Coach – Each Super Bowl appearance was with a first-time head coach (John Fox, Ron Rivera). The Panthers are playing this season under first time head coach Dave Canales.
Breakout QB Season – Each Super Bowl appearance was in a breakout season for their QB. 2003 was Jake Delhomme’s first season as a starter, and he rose to the occasion, throwing for 3,219 yds and 19 TDs, while leading the NFL in fourth quarter comebacks (5) and game winning drives (7). Cam Newton had a good start to his career, winning AP ORoY and earning Pro Bowl nods in 2011 and 2013. But 2015 was when he reached his peak, throwing for 3,837 yds and 35 TDs to 10 INT, adding 636 yds and 10 TDs on the ground, while leading the league with 4 game winning drives.
Bryce Young, meanwhile, struggled as a rookie in 2023, and through the first 6 weeks of 2024, when he was benched for poor play in favor of Andy Dalton. After being reinstated as the starter in week 8, Young showed major improvement throughout the rest of the season. Armed with new weapons Tetairoa McMillan and Trevor Etienne, he is primed to break out in 2025.
What more do you need?
Opening Win Against Jaguars – The best part of this prediction is that we won’t need to wait until the end of the season to know if it will come true. Each of the Panthers’ previous Super Bowl appearances followed an opening day win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. We will know by around 4 pm on Sunday if the prophesy has been fulfilled.
Bold Predictions Challenge
Not bold enough for you? Here is your chance to earn bragging rights as Hogs Haven’s boldest prognosticator and win a luxurious prize. Use the comments to record your bold predictions for the Commanders’ and/or NFL season. I will compile the results and award the Grand Prize after the Super Bowl. The lucky winner will win a night out at the pub of your choice, in Brisbane Australia, drinks and one parmy on me, redeemable any time before the closing ceremony of the 2032 Olympics*.
*Airfaires, airport pickup and hotel accommodation not included
