Alabama and Oklahoma have only played a couple of games since last playing each other, with the Sooners having bested the Tide by 2 points in a low-scoring slugfest on November 15th. Now, they’re matched
up yet again in the first round of the College Football Playoffs, with the winner getting the privilege of taking on #1 Indiana.
For all of the Sooners’ defensive prowess, though, their offense has been about as lackluster as you’ll find in a top ten team in the country (and hey, they’re in good company with Alabama there!). At only 26.4 points per game, they’re ranked 80th in the country, and similar to Alabama, they’re only averaging 3.7 yards per carry on the ground. On top of a mostly anemic rushing attack, though, they also have a limited passing game, with QB John Mateer only throwing for 229 yards per game and only 12 TDs to 10 interceptions.
This is what I wrote about the Sooners a month ago:
Where Arbuckle differs a bit from the Leach roots is that he runs pretty close to a 50/50 split with passing and rushing. Now, a lot of that is QB rushing, but it’s mostly designed QB rushes, and the RBs are actively involved off the zone read (or just zone run plays that look like a read).
Mateer is the centerpoint of the entire offense with 265 passing attempts and tied for the lead with 94 rushing attempts. The former Wazzu QB probably isn’t going to hit his volume totals from a year ago, especially after missing a game with a thumb surgery and playing limited for a few games after. Still, he’s decisive and quick as a rusher and is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt through the air. He’s got a fast release and can really drive those slant route throws with lightning speed. However, his accuracy can be scattershot as he starts going deeper down the field, and he can get himself into some really dangerous situations in the pocket at times.
Outside of Mateer, running backs Tory Blaylock and Xavier Robinson have played very well this season. Blaylock is a true freshman that burst onto the scene early, but Robinson is a 226-lb bruiser who’s taken over the biggest share of carries the last three weeks and is averaging 6.4 yards per carry. He may very well be one of the SEC’s best kept secrets thus far as a big back who can rattle off explosive plays.
As far as receivers, Arkansas transfer Isaiah Sategna has been the #1 man all season, leading the team with 49 catches for 692 yards and 5 TDs out of the slot. He’s pretty much a do-it-all player, and the Sooners are always looking for ways to get him the ball in space, one way or another. He’s flanked by Deion Burks, a speedy YAC guy who was mostly a screen target a year ago and is still expanding that role a bit.
In their following games vs Missouri and LSU, the Sooners only scored 17 points in each game. Against Missouri, things were mostly the same, with Mateer and Robinson gutting out some inefficient ground games and Sategna making one big play in the passing game.
Against LSU, Mateer did finally find some volume through the air, putting up 318 yards – he just also threw three interceptions.
In all honesty, it’s hard to see Oklahoma having very much success against the Alabama defense. They gained a total of 212 yards in the round 1 matchup, with the Alabama defense pretty well clamping down on anything they tried. In fact, of the Sooners’ 23 points, 7 came from their defense on a pick-6, two of their field goals came on short fields after an Alabama turnover, and their lone offensive TD was also on a short field.
Essentially, Alabama’s offense just had to not have three turnovers and a bad special teams gaffe, and the Tide defense would have held the Sooners to a single field goal.
Now, will that level of dominance happen again? And this time in Norman, rather than Tuscaloosa? Probably not quite. Mateer is another month removed from his thumb surgery and should still be continuing to improve. Still, the Oklahoma offense has struggled to put points on the board this whole month, and the Alabama defense has consistently held every team they’ve played below their norm.
Barring another turnover fest from the Alabama offense, it’s tough to see the Sooners scoring more than about 17 points. And even that seems generous – I just struggle to predict a legitimate playoff team to score less than that.
