Another week in the red thanks to two very late scores, including in the final seconds against Miami’s backups, delivering some rough beats. But on I press.
This is a very interesting slate. The Canes host
NC State on Senior Day at Hard Rock Stadium, and there are a number of notable games across the country that should be a lot of fun.
As usual, I’m using the lines over at the FanDuel Sportsbook.
(Disclaimer: these are just my opinions. Please do your own analysis and pick accordingly. I am not telling you what to do with your money. Be responsible. Have a gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. T&C apply; lines subject to change.)
And now, on with this week’s picks…
NC STATE +15.5 at Miami
There is room for Miami to have a breakout on offense on Saturday after some sloggy starts over the last several weeks. NC State hasn’t kept an ACC team to under 23 points this season, and they’ve allowed 31+ points in three ACC games and 45+ in three. But I’m in see-it-to-believe-it mode with the Canes’ offense, and NC State’s CJ Bailey will have his moments against Miami’s defense. Getting over two touchdowns is too much to pass up here.
USF -10.5 at Navy
Alex Golesh has done a terrific job this season and has the Bulls playing at a high level right now, and the committee rewarded them with a deserving place in the rankings this week. While we still don’t know Navy QB Blake Horvath’s status for Saturday – he was out against Notre Dame with an injury – I like the Bulls’ big-play ability regardless and therefore like USF’s chances to pull off a double-digit win on the road.
Notre Dame at PITT +12.5
The line keeps sliding towards the Irish, and I just don’t get it. Pitt has been playing as well as anyone in the ACC since Mason Heintschel took over as the Panthers’ starting QB. The Panthers’ pass rush has also been solid this year, as they’re fourth in the ACC in sacks with 24, so they have the ability to create some issues and stall out some ND drives. But I think the Irish will ultimately get their ground game working in the second half, and their defense comes up with a late stop to win a close game.
Iowa at USC -6.5
The Trojans have been good to me in the Coliseum this year (and good there in general this year), and coming off an Iowa team who just took a tough gut punch on a last-second loss to Oregon, I’ll bet on the Trojans winning by at least at touchdown here.
GEORGIA TECH -16.5 at Boston College
Aside from a gritty showing against Notre Dame, the Eagles have been handled convincingly this year, including last week against SMU in a 45-13 loss. I think Haynes King has his way with BC’s defense and the rested Jackets get a three-plus score win.
Texas at GEORGIA -5.5
If this game was in Austin, I’d think about the upset, but the Longhorns have been very mediocre on the road this year (loss to Florida, overtime wins at Mississippi State and Kentucky). Sanford Stadium is a buzzsaw, and the Bulldogs deal the Horns a big blow to their playoff hopes.
CLEMSON +2.5 at Louisville
This is as much a talent thing as anything else. The Tigers have had moments where that talent has come out (at Boston College, at North Carolina), and times where it’s been completely wasted (vs. Duke, vs. Syracuse). There isn’t much to turn to here for facts or support for a pick. This one is just a gut feeling.
Oklahoma at ALABAMA -5.5
The Sooners’ defensive front really is as good as advertised. That was on display the last time they were on the field in Neyland Stadium against Tennessee, with R Mason Thomas slinging off a tight end on the way to a long fumble return touchdown after a sack. But John Mateer and the OU offense is too inconsistent, and the Crimson Tide’s defense has found itself after a shaky start to the season. In Tuscaloosa, this one goes to Bama by double digits.
TCU +4.5 at BYU
Everything screams Cougars bounce back here, with the game in Provo and at night, but sometimes in college football, things aren’t what they seem. The Horned Frogs have had the Cougars’ number with 5 straight wins, and their defense has been playing much better after a two-game lapse against Kansas State and Baylor. I don’t know if TCU pulls it off, but I think it will be tight until the clock reaches all zeroes.
Tennessee Tech at KENTUCKY -21.5
Going a bit off the radar here, but the Wildcats just delivered an impressive performance at home with a 38-7 win over the Gators and still have hopes of reaching bowl eligibility. As such, they’ll be focused and motivated on Saturday and should take care of business, even against a good FCS team in the Golden Eagles (who are 10-0).
