We’re in the midst of a very interesting thought experiment.
Could a team that is ranked No. 2 in the nation and be seen as a viable national championship contender be underrated?
If so, consider the Arizona Wildcats to be just that.
Although the UA is ranked behind only Duke, are among a handful of teams of whom it is said are legitimately be poised to cut down nets in a few weeks, are essentially locked into a No. 1 seed and have won arguably the best basketball conference the country while featuring
the Big 12’s Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year and multiple all-conference members, there’s this feeling that it’s still being slept on.
To wit: the rankings over at EvanMiya.com have Arizona third behind both Michigan and Duke, with the Cats’ rating being closer to 4th-ranked Florida than the 2nd-ranked Blue Devils. Haslam Metrics also has Arizona third, while Torvik has it fourth. Oh, and Arizona is third in KenPom, too, nearly two full points behind No. 2 Michigan.
Oh well.
Why Arizona lags behind Duke, Michigan (and even Florida for one) in the numbers is a question you’d have to ask of those who created the metrics.
Disrespectful? To some, yes. Fair? Let’s look at some of the likely culprits for why doubters remain and find out.
No true superstar
Jaden Bradley was named the Big 12 Player of the Year, but it’s not as if he had a dominant season or put up gaudy numbers. In fact, if you were to ask people who Arizona’s best player is you will likely get different answers, just as you would if the question was instead who is the team’s most important player, though our readers had a clear choice for MVP.
Meanwhile Duke has freshman sensation Cameron Boozer and Michigan is led by veteran star Yaxel Lendeborg. Those two have generated plenty of headlines while leading their respective teams to plenty of wins, giving the impression of a kind of star power that to a casual Arizona lacks.
Of course, us ball knowers understand the strength of Arizona is in its diversity, with a number of players who can step up on any given night.
On the Wildcat Radio 2.0 podcast, Evan Miyakawa said that is a big part of what makes the Cats dangerous, even without a top 10 or top 15 player according to his metrics.
“On the flip side of it, if you look at every title favorite team’s top six players,” he said, “like right now, Ivan Kharchenkov is rated as Arizona’s sixth-most valuable player.
“And there’s a lot of players that are very close; he is, if you compare that to Duke’s sixth-best player, Michigan’s sixth-best player, Florida’s or any other teams’, Arizona has the better top six than anyone else in the country.”
In all, Arizona’s superior depth allows for it to better withstand foul trouble, injuries and off nights.
Verdict: Not fair. Superstars are great to have, but more important is having multiple guys who can play like a superstar in any given game.
Arizona is not known for producing tough, gritty teams
There’s a reason why Sean Miller’s “Nastiness is required” speech resonated and fired up Arizona fans, and it’s not because they were used to teams who took that kind of approach.
Not to say the Cats in previous years didn’t play with fire, emotion or passion, but Arizona has never really been known to put teams on the court that would out-tough their opponent. More the opposite.
Tommy Lloyd’s first couple of Arizona teams were bounced in the NCAA tournament by opponents who more or less bullied them, which made sense when it was Houston but was pretty disturbing the following year when it was Princeton.
Those early failures along with Gonzaga’s history likely formed some opinions regarding the kind of ball Lloyd’s teams played, but more importantly they also likely taught the coach about what kind of team he needed to create if a deep run was to happen.
This. Team. Is. Tough.
It’s also physical, at all positions but especially up front with Koa Peat, Tobe Awaka and Mo Krivas. Brayden Burries also isn’t afraid of contact from the guard position and Karchenkov fears nobody.
“I think the narrative that we were soft is lazy,” Lloyd said after Arizona’s home win over Kansas. “Look at our stats, look at our analytics. We’ve always been a great rebounding team. We’ve always pounded the paint like so if you want to just be lazy and not pay attention and say we’re soft because we’re on the west coast, be lazy.”
Verdict: Not fair. Arizona has size, strength and athleticism. Perhaps more than that, it seems to be a roster filled with guys who will do whatever it takes to win. Arizona may lose, but the Cats won’t be bullied.
Arizona plays out west and that limits national eyes
It’s true, Tucson is located in the American Southwest and games are often starting during the late hours on the east coast. At the same time, Michigan and Duke are often on at excellent times for much of the nation and have been watched plenty.
Verdict: Fair. Geography can be like that.
Arizona doesn’t shoot enough 3s. Or is it that they might not make enough of the ones they shoot? Something about the 3-ball.
A byproduct of Arizona’s dominance inside has been that the Wildcats don’t often shoot from beyond the 3-point line.
Of the 365 programs listed on ESPN’s stats page, Arizona attempts more 3s per game than just seven. That’s right, Arizona’s 16.5 attempts rank 358th in the country, just ahead of the Binghamton Bearcats and just behind the Long Island University Sharks.
Elite company.
However if you look at Arizona by 3-point percentage it ranks a modest 112th, hitting on 35.3 percent of its attempts. For comparison’s sake, Michigan makes 36.5 percent of its threes while Duke connects on 35.3 percent.
So where is Arizona’s problem, exactly?
Burries has made 37 percent of his threes, Bradley 38.2 percent of his and Anthony Dell’Orso is at 31.7 percent. All, along with Kharchenkov, are capable of stretching a defense as is Dwayne Aristode, who has connected on 45.9 percent of his limited attempts.
Verdict: Not fair. The 3-point shot can be huge in the NCAA tournament, but contrary to the wisdom of one Jay Williams who thought the possibility of Arizona going cold from deep could be their undoing, the numbers — and results — indicate the Wildcats are one of the few teams who doesn’t need to make a lot of threes to win, but is fully capable of making enough.
This is not an exhaustive list of every issue one may have with Arizona, but the truth is there is no perfect team out there. If you look hard enough you will find a flaw, a weakness, in every team. More so this is sports and a tournament where the true best team seems to rarely be the one who wins it all.
Where that leaves Arizona is anyone’s guess, or for now anyone’s opinion. What we know and most people seem to acknowledge is that the Wildcats are one of the best teams in the country and it would not be a real surprise to see the season end with them cutting down the nets.
