Dan Szymborski, writer for FanGraphs, has released projections for the 2026 Cleveland Guardians – let’s take a look at them together.
First, here is where you go to read Szymborski’s excellent write-up
and the full projections. Now, here’s the best roster we can assemble for the Guardians based on what ZiPS has provided (you can compare to Steamer’s numbers in our article from earlier this week):
OPS+ – On-base + slugging taking into account park and league context, 100 is league average.
ERA+ – ERA adjusted for park and league context, 100 is league average.
Lineup:
1. Steven Kwan, LF – 104 OPS+
2. C.J. Kayfus, RF – 106 OPS+
3. Jose Ramirez, 3B – 125 OPS+
4. Kyle Manzardo, 1B – 111 OPS+
5. Johnathan Rodriguez, DH – 104 OPS+
6. Chase DeLauter, CF – 98 OPS+
7. Bo Naylor, C – 93 OPS+
8. Travis Bazzana, 2B – 89 OPS+
9. Brayan Rocchio, SS – 83 OPS+
Bench:
Austin Hedges, C – 53 OPS+
David Fry – C/1B/RF – .674 OPS vs. LHP, 81 OPS+ overall
Nolan Jones, OF – 98 OPS+
Daniel Schneemann – IF/OF – 85 OPS+
Analysis: There are two other prospects that ZiPS likes a fair amount worth mentioning here: Cooper Ingle and Ralphy Velazquez, at 83 OPS+ and 93 OPS+ currently, but their 80th percentile outcomes are seen as 109 oPS+ and 113 OPS+. George Valera receives a 95 OPS+ projection with a 115 OPS+ 80th percentile outcome, which is decent. DeLauter has a 116 OPS+ 80th percentile projection, while Brito and Bazzana are both at 107 OPS+ there. In order for this to be an imposing lineup, I’d say Kayfus will need to get close to his 126 OPS+ 80th percentile outcome, Manzardo to his at 130 OPS+ and Rodriguez to his at 124 OPS+. The lineup looks particularly inept vs. LHP because ZiPS has little to no faith in Fry or Angel Martinez. Szymborski notes that Cleveland really seems like they need to upgrade in centerfield, which, again, is the clear need here. Will they go after Harrison Bader? Will they pursue a trade target like Luis Robert, Jarren Duran or someone else? Time will tell. The projections would look a lot rosier if the Guardians could find a way to land a 1B/DH type who could hit LHP and a centerfielder preferably hitting from the right-side. But, as of now, all is quiet on the western front on that end.
Steamer and ZiPS both are pretty big believers in Johnathan Rodriguez. Personally, I see his launch angle and zone-contact issues as HUGE red flags, but it’s nice to have the computers seeing him as potentially able to overcome those. The Guardians could definitely use the right-handed hitting help. I am pretty optimistic that Juan Brito and Chase DeLauter will surpass their projected hitting numbers, if healthy, if that helps.
Rotation:
Gavin Williams – 118 ERA+
Joey Cantillo – 117 ERA+
Tanner Bibee – 114 ERA+
Parker Messick – 106 ERA+
Logan Allen – 102 ERA+
Bullpen:
Franco Aleman – 107 ERA+
Tim Herrin – 120 ERA+
Hunter Gaddis – 117 ERA+
Erik Sabrowski – 109 ERA+
Colin Holderman -107 ERA+
Matt Festa – 103 ERA+
Connor Brogdon – 100 ERA+
Cade Smith – 156 ERA+
Analysis: All of this looks solid, and I think we can reasonably expect the Guardians to squeeze a little more value than projected for their pitching. ZiPS sees Slade Cecconi, Will Dion, Austin Peterson, Kahl Stephen, Yorman Gomez and even Josh Hartle as near league average performers by ERA+ for starting pitcher depth, as well as Andrew Walters, Matt Jahec, Magnus Ellerts, Carlos Hernandez and Peyton Pallette (who will either make the pen or be returned to the White Sox following Spring Training) as average or near average depth in the bullpen. The pen would still a lot better with one more veteran addition, and I have to note that the Tim Herrin projection seems especially optimistic given what we observed with Herrin for most of 2025. Jakob Junis is still out there in free agency and receives a 114 ERA+ projection here, so a reunion with him would be timely.
So far, looks like a team projected for 83-ish wins, real close to that 85 win goal that Seattle PoBO Jerry DiPoto once infamously mentioned as a typical front office goal – perhaps explaining why Cleveland seems currently likely to keep the roster as is and then upgrade as needed midseason. Is it what I think they should do? No, it is not. Is it going to result in a World Series title? The odds say no, but maybe they’ll defy the eyes in the 79th attempt.
