The Guardians have managed an 8-5 record through their first 13 games, despite a strong slate of opponents. What is real and what is not as we look at this team’s performance so far?
Brayan Rocchio – 112 wRC+, .355 xwOBA, 8.7/13 K/BB%
Verdict – Real: Perhaps the most exciting Guardians’ player to follow so far this season has been Rocchio who has a very reasonable wRC+ about 10% above average and expected numbers that look even better. I’d expect Rocchio’s strikeout rate to probably double and bring
his xwOBA back down more in line with his actual output, as his low BABIP of .219 averages out. He’s at 0 DRS and 0 OAA so far, but he looks like a good defender at short which should get him closer to his 2024 numbers of 11 DRS and 5 OAA if the team continues to start him there. A 115 wRC+ with 5 OAA would be a 4-5 win player. WOW.
Austin Hedges – 175 wRC+, .411 xwOBA, 20/0 K/BB%
Verdict – Not Real: I do not expect Hedges to run a .500 BABIP this season, nor do I expect him to manage a wRC+ approximately 4 times what he has been as a hitter for a while. HOWEVER, he will end up taking some walks and his quality of contact has dramatically improved. I think an 80 wRC+ is actually on the table. Is it likely? No, it’s probably more of a 60-70 wRC+ when it’s all said and done, but Hedges as an 80 wRC+ would be an insanely valuable player given his continued defensive excellence.
Chase DeLauter – 185 wRC+, .393 xwOBA, 22/8.9 K/BB%
Verdict – Real(ish): I don’t think DeLauter is a 185 wRC+ player, but I do think there is potential for 150 wRC+ here. DeLauter will have to adjust to teams trying to get him to chase and relentlessly attacking him with high heat. But, I do think he will fall back on a strong plate discipline ethic and increase his walk rate while losing some slugging. This is a very exciting hitter and he has only a .231 BABIP right now.
Angel Martinex – 168 wRC+, .319 xwOBA, 17.1/8.6 K/BB%
Verdict – Not Real(BUT!): I do not think Angel is going to be a 168 wRC+, but I do think he has potential to outperform his .319 xwOBA which would put him closer to a 120 wRC+, which is insane to think about. The key for Angel is maintaining a lower strikeout rate and a walk-rate of 9-10%, as well as his current 33% pulled fly-ball rate. Additionally, he needs to tighten up his outfield defense. If that’s the case, given his increasing confidence against right-handed pitchers, you could see him as the team’s primary starting left-fielder. Angel will likely need to trim his 34% chase rate slightly because his .364 BABIP will not last when he begins making more weak contact on bad pitches. Pitchers will begin simply throwing him balls to see if he is patient enough to take his walks. That will determine if Angel becomes something more than an early season mirage. I wouldn’t bet against him, myself.
Rhys Hoskins – 151 wRC+, .262 xwOBA, 36.4/18.2 K/BB%
Verdict – Real(ish): Hoskins has not been hitting the ball hard that often, but he has shown tremendous plate discipline and timely contact. I’d expect him to get closer to his xwOBA of 2025 given what we have seen, which was .314. Given his refusal to chase (15%) and his being surrounded by hitters like Jose and DeLauter, I think he has potential to be a 120 wRC+, with a 130-140 wRC+ on the table against LHP.
Juan Brito – 270 wRC+, .544 xwOBA, 12.5/0 K/BB%
Verdict – Not Real(BUT!): Surprisingly, while I am a Brito-truther, I do not expect him to win AL MVP. The most exciting part of his debut is that he has had no walks yet and he is very capable of taking walks. He looks like a player who will see a lot of pitches, make consistent contact and pull fly balls. The question for him will be if he can avoid untimely errors at second base, because he will make mistakes there. It’s early but he definitely looks like a player who can manage a 120 wRC+, which might give Travis Bazzana some needed leash to try to figure himself out at Columbus.
Jose Ramirez – 62 wRC+, .338 xwOBA, 12.7/10 K/BB%
Verdict – Not Real: Jose will be Jose, folks. His xwOBA is what it’s been for the past two years. He’s been pressing a bit and gotten robbed a few times (by defenders and umpires). Relax, he’ll be Jose.
Kyle Manzardo – 6 wRC+ .315 xwOBA, 34/9.8 K/BB%
Verdict – Not Real(BUT!): Manzardo has been widely publicized as the most unlucky hitter in baseball so far. True. However, he is swinging and missing way too much and chasing at a career-high rate (32%). He needs to take a cue from his teammates who have been very disciplined as a whole group or the team is going to be looking longingly at Ralphy Velazquez by July with Manzardo hanging around league average as a hitter.
David Fry – 101 wRC+, .280 xwOBA, 35.3/17.3 K/BB%
Verdict – Not Real: Folks, I don’t know if I believe in David Fry. His current value is reliant on his ability to continue to walk at a healthy rate, and I think pitchers are going to be daring him not to chase more and more. I think he might be a 90 wRC+ hitter overall, and 110 wRC+ vs. LHP. His spot on the roster won’t be secure if Hedges can somehow sustain competency at the plate, or if the team refuses to play him as a catcher (as they have so far).
Bo Naylor – 23 wRC+, .303 xwOBA, 24.2/12.1 K/BB%
Verdict – Not Real(BUT!): Bo will eventually be something more like his xwOBA… but that’s still a slightly below league average hitter. Bo isn’t going anywhere for 2026, but if Cooper Ingle continues to advance as a defender, I’d expect Ingle to be on the team in September with a chance to show himself as a contender for starting catcher in 2027 and putting Bo on the trade block. Bo needs to find a way to get to his power and continue to take walks, and I think he will, but there are some reasons to doubt.
C.J. Kayfus – 92 wRC+, .305 xwOBA, 32/8 K/BB%
Verdict – Real: Kayfus looks like a slightly below average hitter. I think he’s probably roughly 100 wRC+, which will make him an easy replacement when George Valera is ready. Hope he surprises me and proves me wrong.
What do you think? Whom do you believe in? Whom do you doubt? Let us know in the comments below
