Every week, we’ll examine the numbers behind the next opponent on the schedule. Looking at the recent numbers and trends for each team, we’ll add it all up to see which squad may have the edge. This week, the 3-5 Dallas Cowboys take on the 2-6 Indianapolis Colts.
Cowboys key stats from last week
Dak Prescott threw for 195 yards, one touchdown and finished with a passer rating of 96.2. He’d also score once with his legs. Prescott was sacked four times as the offensive line again struggled throughout the day in both run blocking and pass protection.
Javonte Williams was again the primary focus on the day. The results were quite poor as compared to the previous week. He finished with just 56 yards on 24 carries – good for an atrocious 2.3 yards per carry. This was especially concerning when considering the Cardinals inability to stop the run throughout the season.
The big three receivers, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Ryan Flournoy totaled a combined 144 yards on 19 targets. Just one touchdown on the day went to a Flournoy on a nifty one-handed catch.
Colts key stats from last week
The Colts finished last week with only one score on the day, losing 42-7 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They were down 28-0 at halftime and never stood a chance in their fourth straight loss.
Daniel Jones was sat down in the fourth quarter after throwing for just 144 yards and two interceptions. He was sacked three times on the day.
Jonathan Taylor carried the ball eight times for 23 yards, by far his lowest output on the season. Trade rumors continue to swirl around the Colts’ most valuable piece.
Indianapolis finished the day with 243 total yards on offense, one touchdown, and three turnovers. The defense surrendered 366 yards and six touchdowns, including a pick-six. This is certainly a team that’s given up on the season, exporting key pieces to jumpstart their rebuild and it shows.
Get the Javon-train back on the tracks
The last two weeks we’ve implored coach Brian Schottenheimer to stick with the run. He listened maybe a little too well to our requests.
Last week, the Cowboys ran the ball into a brick wall throughout the entire day. And at times, it’s necessary to do so to keep the defense honest. If they want to present a light box, this offensive line and running back should be able to take advantage. But that just wasn’t the case last week.
The Cowboys were stuffed at the line of scrimmage the second most across the NFL last week, according the SumerSports. The insistence on running between the tackles play after play (65.7% of the time) on a day where the interior three offensive linemen struggled was a certainly a decision that did not work. On the season, Dallas ranks third in inside run percentage while they rank 29th in outside run rate. With 53 yards to work with sideline to sideline, the Cowboys insist on utilizing just the seven yards between the tackles.
If Dallas is to get Javonte Williams and this run game back on track, they either need to utilize more of the boundary to make the linebackers defend sideline to sideline, or they need to snag explosive plays downfield to back these teams off the line of scrimmage. Against a bad Colts run defense and a team that has thrown in the towel, this would be a great week to do so.
What do the numbers mean?
The Colts aren’t good, but neither are the Cowboys. On paper, Dallas possesses superior talent at the most important positions on the field. They were also more talented than the Buccaneers and the Cardinals but that didn’t mean much when the game moved from the paper to the field.
The Colts struggle mightily on defense, both through the ground and the air. If the good Cowboys offense decides to show up this week, they should be able to move the ball and score at will. But if they allow the Colts team to stick around throughout the day, just as Dallas did against the Cardinals, this could be a game where Indianapolis finds an opportunity to regain some pride.
We should expect Dallas to once again try and establish the run this week, and rightfully so. The Colts have traded key defensive lineman DeForest Buckner back to the 49ers, and were struggling to stop the run even before then. Indianapolis is the second worst defense in EPA/rush attempt across the league. If Dallas can’t get right on the ground this week, it’ll be difficult to expect a successful rushing attack for the remainder of the season.
On defense, the Cowboys will face off against old “rival” in quarterback Daniel Jones and a formidable running back in Jonathan Taylor. Jones continues to prove he’s mistake prone when trying to keep up with an offense on the other side. If Dallas can jump out to an early lead, this quarterback will certainly provide opportunities to make plays on the ball.
The most important factor for the defense will be to limit Jonathan Taylor – a task that’s proven difficult for them against lesser competition. If the Colts are allowed to slowly and methodically march down the field behind a balanced attack, the Cowboys defense will once again be in for a difficult day.
Dallas should win this game, favored by 5.5 points. But nobody in the fan base trusts them right now, and rightfully so. Hopefully this will be a week where we see the Cowboys put the other side away early, as the paper matchup indicates they should. But this team has not earned the right for us the believe that will be the case. And for most of us, regardless of the score, we’ll be holding our breath through the final whistle.
