ESPN ran its annual full simulation for the 2025-26 NBA season. Yes, they simulated it. It’s not a prophecy, but it’s fun.
In this simulation from Kevin Pelton’s real plus-minus–based projections, the Suns finished ninth in the Western Conference at 42–40, good enough for a spot in the Play-In Tournament, but not much else. In the simulated play-in, Phoenix fell to the tenth-seeded Sacramento Kings, ending their postseason hopes before they even began.
The model, which utilizes statistical projections
for every player’s impact and simulates the season thousands of times, is designed to measure team strength and probability, rather than relying on intuition. Still, it offers an interesting snapshot of how Phoenix stacks up analytically after a summer of turnover, new leadership under Jordan Ott, and a roster that looks drastically different from last year.
For reference, the Suns over/under line on FanDuel sits at 31.5 wins. This specific projection selected (out of thousands) places them 10.5 wins above that mark.
How the simulation works
Pelton’s model uses advanced metric real plus-minus, which estimates how much a player contributes to team success per 100 possessions. It then projects minutes, rotations, and age-based improvement or decline to forecast team performance. The simulation is run thousands of times to generate win distributions, seeding probabilities, and potential playoff paths.
This year’s chosen run (simulation No. 620) was selected for its “interesting outcomes,” including the Golden State Warriors reclaiming the West with a league-best 63–19 record and the Orlando Magic finishing as the East’s top seed. Keep in mind, this is ONE handpicked projection of thousands.
Let me walk you through what that simulation suggests, and why it should make Suns fans both hopeful and skeptical. All in all, we can take this simulation with a grain of salt.
Phoenix’s Path
In the West, the Suns’ 42–40 mark placed them just behind the Portland Trail Blazers (43–39) and ahead of the Sacramento Kings (38–44). It reflects a middle-of-the-pack where Phoenix’s young core shows promise, but with growing pains sprinkled in early on.
Here is their record through respective dates:
- Through Christmas: 10-16 (slow start)
- Through All-Star Break: 29-26 (massive run)
- Through April: 38-38 (flat to .500)
- Final Record: 42-40 (strong 4-2 finish propels them to 9 seed)
Based on the calendar year, Phoenix begins 10-16, but then fires off a 19-10 record from that point heading into Christmas to put them back in the playoff mix. That would be the ultimate sign of resilience after a slow start.
Then things flatten out with a .500 record in April, but a strong 4-2 finish propels them into the 9th seed and secures them a Play-In spot.
The simulated standings put Phoenix in the play-in game against Sacramento, where they lost. That play-in loss would take place in Phoenix, by the way. Meanwhile, the Kings went on to upset Minnesota and advance to face the top-seeded Warriors.
The 63-win Warriors, mind you. (SMH)
The Orlando Magic ended up defeating those Warriors in 7 games to win their first-ever NBA title.
What does it say about this year’s Suns?
From a numbers perspective, a .512 winning percentage suggests the Suns are competent, which is all we can ask for. If I were on “Deal or No Deal” and the banker offered me 42 wins, I would take that and run to the bank.
This somewhat unexpected “success” or overachieving tracks with what we’ve seen early in the preseason: flashes of athleticism, energy, and defensive growth, but an offense still trying to find rhythm and identity.
If Pelton’s model is right, the Suns could spend most of the year fighting in the middle of the West, leaning on youth and cohesion rather than star power to stay afloat. It’s a far cry from the Durant–Booker–Beal failed “superteam” era, but it might also be the reset this organization needed. With low expectations comes more enjoyment.
Simulations are not predictions, and basketball seasons are not spreadsheets. But if the data has any truth to it, Phoenix has a potentially fun season ahead.
Keep in mind that was just one projection of many. Here is the “average outcome” from Pelton.
Still a few games above their over/under we discussed earlier, but not as fun as an above .500 season in the model Pelton selected.
