Last week, the Carolina Panthers sat in split-safety coverages against the Green Bay Packers, forcing the team to run the football or take checkdown passes routinely — just like their matchup in 2025. While this didn’t stop the Packers’ offense, which still had a 100-yard receiver in Christian Watson despite his in-game trip to the hospital for a rib injury, it did mean that the offense was a lot less explosive than it was in prior weeks.
Don’t expect that same strategy from the New England Patriots
this week, as it’s not really their identity to sit back and just let offense happen to them, hoping that the opposing team will trip up at some point.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Patriots have sent max pressure (six or more pass rushers) with man coverage behind it 37 times already this season, the most in the league. On those looks, they’ve posted five sacks and allowed just 14 completions on 31 pass attempts (45 percent) for 123 yards (4.0 yards per attempt), with one interception and no touchdowns surrendered. The overall conversion rate on those players is 21.6 percent, which is the best mark in the league in these situations.
In contrast, New England has only sent 13 of these “max pressure” looks out of zone in 2026, surrendering 9 of 13 in the air for 131 yards (10 yards per attempt) and a touchdown. In short, the Patriots’ man coverage looks have been better for them than zone coverage looks this year, especially when they’re trying to speed quarterbacks up.
Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez, their All-Pro defender, helps the team unlock that man coverage identity when so many other NFL teams are leaning out of the man coverage game. When Gonzalez has been on the field, the team has played man coverage on 39 percent of their defensive snaps, compared to just 29 percent when he’s not in the game.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love has done his most damage this year against the blitz when he’s had either Christian Watson or Matthew Golden in one-on-one looks, but unlike a lot of the teams Green Bay has played this year, the Patriots are just as comfortable playing man as they are playing zone, even behind a blitz.
Gonzalez travels, as he’s followed around specific receivers in man coverage at least 10 times in three separate games, a number that leads the NFL. For perspective, neither Watson nor Golden has been seen man coverage 10 times by a single defender in a single game this entire season.
Something has to break here. This is going to be the most important matchup of Sunday’s game, by far. The only question is whether Gonzalez will travel with a receiver and which one of the Packers’ deep threats it will be.
