We’ve all wondered since UNLV last won a national championship as a mid-major in 1990, when it would happen again. Mid-majors have come close – Butler in 2010 and 2011, Wichita State in 2013, San Diego State three years ago – but haven’t gone all the way yet.
What if we already knew we were getting a mid-major champion by the Final Four? Sounds ridiculous in today’s era, right? Well, let me paint you a picture where it’s not so ridiculous. After two years of very chalky, Power-Five-heavy tournaments,
it’s time for the mid-majors to take one back.
EAST REGION
There are a lot of potential agents of chaos in this bracket – an underrated Cal Baptist starting off near home (where they’re undefeated), a streaking Northern Iowa team, but there’s a qualified candidate in this region for one of Cinderella’s favorite kinds of runs: the unheralded 11-seed to the Final Four. And that team is 11-seed South Florida.
It’s been well documented that 11-seeds make Final Four runs (six times since 1985) even more frequently than 7-seeds (three times), 9-seeds (two times), and 10 seeds (one time), and just as frequently as 8-seeds (six times), despite being on worse seed-lines, and that’s because the bracket protects them from facing the bracket’s toughest teams until the later rounds. While 7, 8, 9, and 10 seeds are likely exposed to the 1 and 2 seeds in the first weekend, the 11 seed can only face as high as a 3-seed in the second round. Then they would go on to face the 2- and 1- seeds, but the later the rounds get, the more opportunities for chaos abound to the higher seeds.
Also, there have been more 11-seeds in the Final Four (six) than 6-seeds (three) since 1985, despite the 6-seed being in the same position to start. Why? Because 11-seeds are often undervalued, mid-major teams. See Loyola-Chicago 2018, VCU 2011, and George Mason 2006.
Maybe you’re looking for an 11-seed run to the Final Four, but Miami University concerns you because there’s been just a bit too much spotlight on them coming into the tourney, and you need another option. Look no further than the South Florida Bulls. Brian Hodgson’s senior-laden squad is playing inspired basketball, having won 11 in a row and 17 of 19 (with both losses coming by a single point in that span).
Another thing – this team plays fast: 15th in the nation in adjusted tempo, and no other team in the region is higher than Louisville (61st), its first opponent. These teams aren’t used to seeing a team like South Florida play with such pace and so effectively.
South Florida can get by a Louisville team missing their best player in the first round, before facing Michigan State. The Spartans had a good season, but their last three games were a close win over a bad Rutgers team, a loss to Michigan, and a loss to UCLA outside of the Pacific Time Zone. This team has weaknesses that USF can beat, if the Bulls, a good offensive rebounding team all year, can rebound with the Spartans, one of the best in the nation.
From there, a couple of things could happen. You could hope for chaos around them, like Loyola got in 2018 when top-overall seed UVA and 2-seed Cincinnati were beaten early, clearing a not-so-difficult path for them to the Final Four. Or, you could hope that this team has the absolute juice like a UCLA in 2021 or VCU in 2011, running through better teams to glory. UConn and Duke would be tough matchups for the Bulls no doubt, but they also don’t play with as much pace, and especially in Duke’s case, feature a lot of youth. Give me an old team to the Final Four. The Bulls take down a UCLA team coming off an emotional upset of UConn, and much to Mick Cronin’s ire, having to play MORE games on the East Coast, and shock everyone by outwitting the Diaper Dandies at Duke and squeaking their way to Indianapolis.
WEST REGION
If Gonzaga is still a mid-major to you, then you don’t have to read this section for very long. The Zags are a 3-seed this year, and could very easily make a run to Indy.
If you are looking for a bit more of a challenge, though, this region might be a bit tougher to come by. The 11-seed is not a mid-major, and we have to look to the top half of the bracket for the most viable Final Four candidates – teams that will be exposed to top-seed Arizona earlier.
No. 9-seed Utah State is the best candidate in this region. For much of the year, they could easily have been seen as the best mid-major in the country. The Aggies dropped some games in the non-con, but won all three of their conference tournament games by double-digits. More importantly, their first round opponent, Villanova – which they’re playing in San Diego – is one of the most fraudulent teams I’ve seen. Go look at their schedule. One good win, maybe, against Wisconsin in overtime?
If Utah State is able to expose them, it means a second-round date with Arizona. And there’s no sugarcoating this one, folks, but this is a hard one to envision. Arizona won 23 games in a row to start the year; then, after a two-game skid, it has won its last nine, including two games each over Houston and Iowa State.
How does Utah State win this game? I’m looking at two things. First, efficiency: USU is a top-15 team in effective field goal percentage, and while Arizona’s eFG% defence is top-5, they haven’t yet faced a team as high in that regard as Utah State. And secondly, experience: USU’s top six contributors are all upperclassmen. Arizona, on the other hand, starts three freshmen. You never quite know how youngsters will react in these big situations.
So here it is then: hot-shooting Utah State jumps out to a lead and stays with Arizona the entire way. As Arizona tightens the game in the big moments, their freshmen make multiple big-time errors in key situations, and Utah State survives by two to advance.
From there, it’s not so hard to envision. The now-hot Aggies will be full of confidence. Wisconsin and Arkansas are actually very comparable to USU in BartTorvik ranking, and that’s if they don’t get upset by undervalued High Point and Hawaii. From there, Gonzaga will disappoint Purdue fans again and reach the Elite Eight rounds. But the Zags are flawed this year. Their relative down year shooting the three-ball will cost them, just as it did in losses to Portland, Saint Mary’s, and in a humiliating loss to Michigan. Utah State, in a year where the Mountain West got absolutely hosed by getting a single bid, cuts down the West Regional nets in its last year in the league.
MIDWEST REGION
Calling it right now, this is the Chaos Bracket. This region is going to have all kinds of mid-major upsets.
Alabama, who’s only beaten one tournament team in a month, gets caught by the red-hot shooting Hofstra Pride (who are also surprisingly good at defense). Banged-up Texas Tech gets knocked out by Akron, who might be an underrated MAC’s best team. Santa Clara and Saint Louis cruise to second-round wins over two average teams from an overrated SEC. Heck, even Virginia remembers its recent history of losing all of its tournament games and getting knocked out by Wright State.
Oh, and Miami continues to show us what it did last night – more than that, it just “belongs”, it’s a wagon that you don’t want to get in the way of.
Santa Clara against Iowa State. Don’t look now, but Iowa State has really just been kind of okay in the last month and a half. Santa Clara, on the other hand, is hot. They’re 17-1 in their last 18 games against teams not named Gonzaga. (And they did give Gonzaga a fight in the WCC title game.) This team would probably be a higher seed if they didn’t randomly brain-fart in an early-season matchup against a Loyola Chicago team that equally randomly got hot for a couple of games. Santa Clara hangs onto the ball, forces enough turnovers, and takes down the Cyclones.
Saint Louis also, for much of the year, could’ve been considered the best mid-major in the country before sputtering a bit down the stretch. But, this is a TOP-TWO team in effective field goal percentage on BOTH the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Yes, this team has lost a couple head-scratchers of late. But I can’t look at that stat and help but fall in love with it. This Michigan team, when on, is a national championship contender. But they’ve also had some close calls against more average teams of late, and got shut down in the Big Ten final. I’m feeling like one of the most chaotic brackets of all time. Saint Louis, like fellow A-10 Loyola-Chicago did in 2021, takes out the Big 10 champs.
We’ve got an all-time regional semifinal slate now: Saint Louis, Akron, Miami, and Santa Clara. Who wins? Use your imagination.
SOUTH REGION
It is going to be fun to watch Troy and McNeese wipe out Vandy and Nebraska – famous underperformers in the tournament – in the first round. But if you’re looking for a mid-major to go all the way to Indy, you’re going to want to look at the bottom of the bracket.
Let’s revisit that 11-seed discussion again, only this time with a program that knows a little bit about actually making that run. That team is the VCU Rams, who didn’t just make the Final Four in 2011, but won an extra game in the First Four to do it. Of course, this is a completely different program now, with a brand new coach, but since then, nobody in a VCU jersey has ever thought they haven’t belonged on a national stage.
And this team is not just unheralded, but it has a fair reason to carry a chip on its shoulder, just like GMU and VCU Final Four teams did. Those teams were often mocked for even being included in the field, and channeled that into a Final Four run. On Selection Sunday this year, the committee revealed that VCU would not have made the field if they didn’t won the A-10 final over Dayton. Many bracketologists had VCU in the field after making said title game, regardless of the result to Dayton, but the committee didn’t see them the same way.
I would like to talk about the Saint Mary’s Gaels, though, as my primary target out of this region. First, at any point in the game, they can just decide that you’re not scoring anymore, a characteristic of their team for several years now, via their top-20 defense and ability to keep teams off the line. Second, and perhaps even more importantly, they rebound – they’re top-12 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Against Houston in a potential Round of 32 matchup, they can exploit a notable advantage over the Cougars in this category to reach the Sweet 16.
The Gaels could beat anyone in the next game, but for fun, let’s say it’s VCU, who goes on that mini-run to the Sweet 16. Now it’s Saint Mary’s in the Elite Eight. There’s a good chance that top-seed Florida, the worst number one seed, has been upset by now, but this would be a game won on the boards. Florida hasn’t encountered a team that rebounds as well as Saint Mary’s (statistically, at least) in the SEC – Saint Mary’s has a couple of 7-footers that can slow down Florida’s big men. But more importantly, the universe owes us one. After two lame power-five-filled NCAA tournaments the past two years, it’s time for maximum chaos the other way. Saint Mary’s wins on a buzzer-beater and gives us the all-mid-major Final Four we’ve been dreaming of.
