Last week, I wondered how many wins the Giants would need to pick up in this second part of the season to wind up with a somewhat respectable record. You know, a record that True Believers “legs” to stand on when proselytizing about their favorite team. But what if the team loses 100+ games?
Some good responses in that comments thread of last week’s post, and the bigger issue is that this miserable team has lost a lot of public trust along with all the goodwill of Buster Posey taking over Baseball
Operations. But there are still the prospect huggers out there who see the Jackson Flora draft and other exciting developments in the farm as reason to focus on the positives and ignore the negatives, even if those negatives are some of the most damning in the franchise’s history: losing triple digits for the second time ever and going five years without a winning season for the first time ever.
I guess no fandom is a monolith and I can’t convince people who’ve already ignored the bad baseball of the past decade (sorry, 2021 team!) that they should have serious doubts about the quality of the franchise. So, let’s just sequalize my week-old post, given the ugly sweep in Kansas City. Just how likely are 100+ losses now?
Through 102 games, the franchise’s sole 100-loss team (1985) was 40-62. Zack & Buster’s 2026 Giants are 42-60. With 60 games left, the Giants will need to go 21-39 to avoid 100 losses. The 1985 team went 22-38 over their final 60. So, yes, these Giants would have to play worse than the worst team in Giants history to match or exceed.
Obviously, they can do it.
The trade deadline seems likely to accelerate the losing. The bullpen and defense blowing games is annoying enough, but the coaching and decision trees managing the roster today will still be in place managing the post-deadline roster, and if you thought the bullpen, defense, and coaching is bad now, it’ll only get worse when the starting pitching doesn’t even give them a chance and the lineup features even less experience and Gold Glove-caliber defense.
Previously, I’d predicted 30 more wins, which would’ve gotten them to 71-91. After a 1-5 start to the second part of the season, they’d need to go 29-31 the rest of the way. I mean, who cares about my prediction, but the notion that they could go 29-31 is absurd. 21-39 even feels like a stretch, but let’s run through this with the taste of this 1-5 road trip fresh in our mouths:
vs. Angels (3 games) — a truly horrendous team, but the Giants are just 3-6 against them the past 3 seasons; and, this series will be before the trade deadline, meaning that the few good players on that roster likely to be traded will be showcased against the Giants. Prediction: 2-1 (although, the Giants just got owned by the Royals)
vs. the Brewers (3 games) — They’re really, really good. Prediction: 1-2 (I have to believe the Giants can scratch out a win at home)
at San Diego (4 games) — the final series before the trade deadline and despite the Padres’ struggles (they’re 2-4 out of the break and were owned by the Royals, too!) it’s likely that they won’t be sellers. They, like the Giants, are just drawing too well. They have a new ownership group coming in, too. They’re just 3 games back of a Wild Card spot as I write this. The Padres have lost just 1 season series to the Giants this decade (2021, natch). Prediction: split?
at Texas (3 games) — The Giants are bad on the road and haven’t won 4 in a row all season. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Detroit (3 games) — The Tigers handled the Giants pretty easily last year in a sweep in Detroit and while it’s true that the 2026 version has struggled a lot, it’s still the case that they’re much, much, much (much?) better than the Giants. Their lineup features three All-Stars: Dillon Dingler, Kevin McGonigle, and Riley Greene, and an enviable rotation with Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Casey Mize, and even Jack Flaherty, Keider Montero, and now Troy Melton. They are 21-31 on the road this season, though. Hmm… Prediction: 1-2
vs. Houston (3 games) — A tricky team. Are they buyers or sellers? Are they a “fake” .500 team? Well, I’ll just let this decide: they’re 13-17 in interleague this season while having a -45 run differential overall. Still, they’re 11th in MLB in runs scored (4th in AL) and Giants pitching won’t get any better this year. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Colorado (3 games) — Gosh, I hope this isn’t a tough series. Prediction: 3-0 (is this where the first 4-game winning streak happens???)
at Cleveland (3 games) — Patrick Bailey revenge series? Who cares, the Guardians have great pitching and they are good for a second-half run. Prediction: 0-3
at Boston (3 games) — Their long win streak will be over by this point (probably), but even in their comedown, they’ll probably still be able to get up to bash the Giants to death (metaphorically) if for no other reason than to stick it to Rafael Devers for some reason — could easily see him having a great series but with Giants pitching unable to capitalize. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Cincinnati (3 games) — This team seems to be out of it. Prediction: 2-1
vs. Arizona (4 games) — The Giants are 1-8 against the Diamondbacks this season. I would expect this series to put the team out of its misery. Prediction: 1-3
at Atlanta (1 game) — I cannot fathom the Giants sweep. Prediction: 0-1
at Pittsburgh (3 games) — Will the Pirates fade down the stretch? That’s the big question. On the other hand, they’re second in MLB in runs scored (543 to Washington’s 567), so, I think they will get a big kick out of kicking the Giants’ collective ass. Prediction: 1-2
at Mets (3 games) — This team will probably remake itself at the deadline and I wonder if they will be one of those teams that improve after retooling on the fly. Anyway, unless the Mets reacquire Jeff McNeil or Pete Alonso, I’m a bit more confident about the Giants facing the Mets. Then again, it’s a road series, and the Mets will still have Juan Soto. Prediction 1-2
vs. St. Louis (3 games) — This series will be the final leg of a 3-city, 9-game road trip for the Cardinals where the first two series are at Dodger Stadium followed by Coors Field. So, I’ll be a little bullish. Prediction: 2-1
vs. San Diego (3 games) — Let’s just keep the good vibes going. Prediction: 2-1
at St. Louis (3 games) — Of course, the Cardinals will get their revenge. Prediction: 1-2
at Dodgers (3 games) — The Giants have played the Dodgers hard, but ending the season against them has, time and again, been disastrous. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Minnesota (3 games) — Will the Twins’ surprising season continue? They’ll have just come off a 4-game series against the Angels in Anaheim, but prior to that, they’ll have run a pretty remarkable gauntlet: 6 against the White Sox, 6 against the Tigers, 3 against the Guardians, and 3 against the Yankees. That 18-game stretch might be enough to short circuit their season and set them on a course to merely play out the string against the Giants. That’s the thinking I have to have in order to make this prediction: 2-1.
vs. Dodgers (3 games) — Since 2017, here is the Giants’ record versus the Dodgers in September: 11-27. For the sake of the rivalry, lets say Prediction: 1-2.
So… 26 wins? 68-94? And this is maybe still optimistic?
I just want to make it clear that I understand “It’s Baseball!” and anything can happen. Something could turn around this entire team and set them on a run that doesn’t look so bad. But we’ve been saying this for years and years. They haven’t given any reasonable person any inkling that “positive regression” or a long win streak is in the immediate future. This is a team in the midst of either an accidental reboot or a lost season that can’t really be explained or fixed. Sort of like 2021’s Wario — but this is the best case scenario going forward.
Maybe the team does need us to write them off to spark a turnaround… that would only get them into the 70-win range. That’s the thing. This is a bad Giants team with a ceiling of “not as bad as they looked for most of the season.” Like, if they wind up with, say, 74 wins, in a couple of years somebody would write, “an 88-loss season that felt like 128.” I don’t know what this era of Giants Baseball will wind up being known as, but it’ll be known for resetting franchise expectations.
Sure, they’ll end the year with the most wins in Baseball history still (around 11,670), but since 1972 (the season they traded Willie Mays), they’re pretty close to .500 (4,356-4,265), and 49% of the seasons (27 of 55) have been non-winning ones (the two .500 seasons are in this count). There have been just 49 non-winning seasons out of 144 in Giants history (34%) and 55% of them have come in the last 54 years. And despite the 3 championships, the 107-win season, the spectacle of Barry Bonds, and the beautiful ballpark, that is sort of what it feels like.
