Angel Martinez has had a good season for the Cleveland Guardians. Is what he is showing us likely to be repeatable?
Angel Martinez has a 110 wRC+ and a .306 xwOBA with a 22/3 K/BB%. Since coming back from a broken foot, Martinez has put up a 130 wRC+, but with identical K/BB% and xwOBA. Martinez has a 132 wRC+ against RHP and a 99 wRC+ against LHP, but a 125 wRC+ against LHP for his career. One would guess his splits against LHP will improve if he can continue to hit, period. But, there are questions
if a player with Angel’s lack of walks and chase rate can sustain what he has done in 2026.
If you are like me, you may remember another fun Guardians’ outfielder who had a geeat season for them while chasing at an unsustainable rate. Oscar Gonzalez (in his age 24 season just as Angel is right now) had a 123 wRC+ with a .325 xwOBA, a 19.6/3.9 K/BB%, 47% chase rate, 21% line drive rate, 51% groundball rate and a 28% fly ball rate. He was a truly awful fielder putting up -6 DRS in two years and -12 OAA in the same time period. Gonzalez washed out of the MLB and has struggled to hit in the NPB so far, doomed by poor defende, an inability to stay disciplined at the plate and the failure to lift the ball with any consistency.
Angel Martinez is not a good defensive outfielder but he appears to be capable of average play in right field (1 DRS and 0 OAA) and not being Gonzalez level bad in left (-3 DRS and -2 OAA). I think we can be reasonably optimistic he can improve some given switching to the outfield was a late move for him, so he shouldn’t be unplayable… but he will also probably not be an asset out there.
The bigger issue is his underlying numbers, specifically his chase rate. Martinez has a 22% line drive rate and a 39% ground ball rate and a 39% fly ball rate. He pulls the ball almost 50% of the time, so he has the ability to make his best swings matter as seen in his 17 homers this season. But, the elephant in the room is Angel’s 42% chase rate. That’s about as bad as any starting player in MLB can manage, while still a little short of Gonzalez’s number. Both Gonzalez and Martinez make contact when they chase in the mid-60% range, but Martinez offers an 82% contact rate overall. He doesn’t miss any pitches in the zone, where Gonzalez would JUST enough to make his chase issues that much more glaring.
I want Angel Martinez to succeed. He is a truly special person and has saved this team multiple times. However, if pushed on this issue, I would have to guess that Martinez will probably not be a major league hitter longterm if he continues to chase at a 42% rate. If he can lower it to more of the 35% rate he flashed his first season, I am convinced that would be enough to make him a major league starter, especially if it resulted in his walk rate creeping closer to 6% and his opportunities to punish more pitches in the zone increasing. He has that dog in him with a 131 wRC+ in high leverage situations this season, and a general positive spirit that lights up the field. But, without showing he can lower that chase rate and increase the walk rate, I fear our Guardian Angel’s success may be as ephemeral as the dearly departed (to Japan) SpongeBob.
Angel fans… pin your hopes on his pulled fly-ball abilities, his knack of punishing meatballs when he sees them and his defensive mediocrity. Maybe he can find a little more of his minor league plate discipline (walk rate of 9.9% for his career on the farm) having established himself in the big leagues. If so, watch out, because an Angel Martinez who will take a walk even 7% of the time is an MLB All-Star. And, while there is no guarantee that can happen… it’s an exciting possibility that is not entirely out of the realms of reality.
Angel Martinez can enter 2027 with a starting outfield position in front of him, from my view. However, it would be wise to have plenty of depth just in case the chase issues that plagued another former Guardians’ outfield revelation come back to decimate Angel’s numbers as well. Here’s hoping Angel can rise above!
