It is show me week for Gopher basketball. There were a number of “what-ifs” surrounding this team before the season tipped off and there may be more “what-ifs” now. The rest of this month is a real, “show me” time for Gopher hoops, and it starts with a trip to Missouri on Wednesday.
After the last couple of Gopher basketball seasons, expectations are very low for Niko Medved’s first season. A roster with only one returner and this group of misfit toys that has been assembled is not expected to compete
in the Big Ten. Which is fine, for year one (perhaps year zero?). The idea behind hiring Medved is that he will rebuild the foundation of Gopher basketball and soon they will be competitive again.
But what if this group of misfits is actually good? What if the collection of players are guys who perfectly fit what Medved wants to do and they work well together? What if this group as a whole is greater than the sum of their parts?
It was always possible that this team was going to be a little better than the basement-level expectations. Nobody around the Big Ten or national circles expected that they would be any better than one of the bottom three or four teams in the conference. And the idea that they could finish more in the 12th to 14th place range was optimistic, though not a wild fantasy.
But what if this team is better than that? What if they are capable of being in bubble conversations later this winter? What if they even find a way to sneak into the NCAA Tournament? Is that even possible?
It started with a couple of exhibition games against North Dakota and North Dakota State. Not exactly a barometer for the Tournament, but hear me out. These games did not appear as though this group was playing together for the first time and working out the kinks; they were crisp and dominated both games against mid-major competition. They beat NDSU by 26 and UND by 20.
Compare this to a year ago when Ben Johnson’s Gophers faced DII Bemidji State and DIII Hamline. The Beavers finished 10-19, 12th place in the Northern Sun. When they played the Gophers, the score was 41-40 at halftime before getting blown out in the second half. Their other exhibition opponent was the Pipers who finished a respectable 17-10 in the MIAC, finishing 3rd; the Gophers beat them by 22.
The level of competition was dramatically different than a year ago AND the results were more impressive.
I understand that these were exhibition games, not exactly the best example of how dominant this team is (or isn’t). But we can also take a look at the early part of last year’s season.
- Oral Roberts – KenPom rank of 241 – 23 point win
- Omaha – KP 308 – 4 point win
- North Texas – KP 74 – LOSS
- Yale – KP 104 – 3 point win
- Cleveland State – KP 192 – 11 point win
- Central Michigan – KP 203 – 3 point win
Other than the Oral Roberts, games were uncomfortably close or a loss to teams they should have been beating. The team began the year with a KenPom ranking of 61 and had dropped to 102 by the time they faced Michigan State in December. Admitatly, the early season KP ranking is a bit misleading, but the decline was very real.
Now this year the team has faced just two non-conference opponents and both of these teams were not very good. But the encouraging aspect of these wins is that the Gophers put their foot on the gas early and never let up.
Against Gardner-Webb, they jumped to a 25-5 lead in the first 10 minutes and they continued to open up that lead until the last 10 minutes, when the Bulldogs outscored the end of the Gopher bench. It was a 72-38 lead through 30 minutes and the game ended up with a 27-point Gopher win.
The second game was another blowout, this time dolled out to the Alcorn State Braves. This time they raced to a 24-4 lead and continued to push that lead till the very end, winning by 47.
This TMP is not at all projecting that the Gophers are significantly better than anticipated and we can start a bubble watch. These are two exhibition games and two games against a couple of the worst teams in college basketball. But there are reasons to raise an eyebrow and ask different questions than we would have two weeks ago.
Now it is time to show me. Medved’s first job is to make this team competent and then competitive. I think there is a high basketball IQ on this team and I think they play a brand of basketball on the offensive end that knows how to find open shots for each other. But can they compete with schools of higher caliber than Alcorn State? They will have their chance to prove that.
A trip to Missouri is a game that I have long since written off. The Tigers are ranked and one of the top teams in the challenging SEC. Winning in Colombia is not something this year’s team seemed capable of doing. But what if they compete?
Games coming up against San Francisco, Stanford and Santa Clara/St. Louis are going to be good opportunities to compete as well. What if they manage to win those games?
The best news in all of this is that Gopher hoops is going to be better this year. They are competent. Can they compete? I’m ready for them to show me.
