Well. The Michigan Wolverines have lost their two toughest games so far and won the other four, leaving more questions than answers at the halfway point. While College Football Playoff hopes are technically
still alive, they feel much more distant after a really poor showing against USC. Nevertheless, the mission remains the same, and a visit from a surging Washington Huskies team means there is no time for moping.
The Huskies are up to No. 21 in SP+, one spot ahead of Michigan. Their resume does not include any mammoth wins, but with the only loss coming to the top team in the nation, there are plenty of reasons for optimism for Jedd Fisch’s group in Seattle. Fortunately, this game is played in Ann Arbor — with an early kick for a West Coast squad — which results in the Wolverines being favored. An upset here would spell disaster going forward, for the season…and maybe the coaching staff.
Washington (5-1, 2-1) at Michigan (4-2, 2-1)
Date & Time: Saturday, Oct. 18, Noon ET
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: FOX
The last time these two teams played…was less exciting than the time before, so maybe we can just focus on that. Remember when Donovan Edwards had yet another Quarter for the Ages? What about when Will Johnson completely flipped the game out of halftime?? Or when Mike Sainristil cemented his legacy as one of the program’s most important players ever??? Yes, I remember all of those moments too, along with Blake Corum ending his career as a certified Michigan legend.
Offense: Good progress
Washington has not allowed over 24 points in any game this season and has been excellent against the run, allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per contest (82.8) nationally. Michigan is obviously going to test this, with or without Justice Haynes, though no one has done much on the ground against this defense. After an outing that really challenged the Wolverines’ identity last week, getting some positives in the run game would go a long way for the vibes.
Of course, in terms of actual success (both on Saturday and going forward), the more important element to revive is the passing game. Bryce Underwood has understandably looked like a true freshman in the big road environments, but this game is at home against a pass defense that is just 90th nationally in yards per game (273.0) against Power Four opposition. While no opposing quarterback has put up Heisman numbers against the Huskies, the secondary has left targets open.
Underwood looks confident when going to Donovan McCulley and Andrew Marsh and it is now Chip Lindsey’s job to build upon these positives. Stop with the screens to Semaj Morgan, introduce more designed quarterback runs, and help out the young signal caller with better play design. Washington is a legitimate defense but in a home environment this is a good place to let some development happen.
While the defense might have more raw talent, I actually feel better about the offense’s ability to execute, even after last week’s low output. The trendline is more wobbly than straight, but overall the arrow is pointing in the right direction, which cannot be said for the other side of the ball. Having some positive moments against a decent team will do wonders for Underwood and for confidence in Lindsey.
Defense: Seat is charred
The defense is where the problem is. While Lincoln Riley is not on the other sideline, Demond Williams is an electric dual-threat weapon who is putting up numbers that compete with every other quarterback that has given Michigan trouble this year. The Wolverines are coming off of a bad showing, while Williams just posted a 400-yard performance last week. His game is more than just stats, but the state sure are good:
Against Power Four opposition he is 2nd nationally with 10.5 YPA, 2nd with a 76.1% completion rate, 3rd in passer rating, and 12th in passing yards per game. On the year he has 10 touchdowns and 1 interception, while also running for 4 scores.
Washington could do what USC did and take complete advantage of Wink Martindale’s defense by screening Michigan to death. They also could let Williams dance around and avoid sacks like John Mateer and then hit big plays downfield or scramble for a bunch of yards with his legs. After last weekend’s failures, including 3rd-and-26, it is so hard to have any faith in this defense.
If Martindale tones it down, the Wolverines can have the advantage up front. It should not take constant blitzing to get pressure on Williams, and even average tackling could limit the Huskies’ attack. The issue is that any mistake will be punished by playmakers like Jonah Coleman and Denzel Boston, meaning Michigan needs to show a level of discipline that has been absent for far too long. Martindale’s job might already be lost, but a bad showing on Saturday may cement it.
Clarity
The vibes are certainly bad after USC, having suffered a similar fate as against Oklahoma and remembering how the middle of last season played out. Yet, this team has a hyper-talented quarterback and a better offensive coordinator, both of which are indisputable upgrades over last year. Michigan enters Saturday as the favorite, and while Washington is a quality opponent, the doom and gloom should at least be on hold until we see how this one plays out.
Of course, the preemptive resignation is not unwarranted, with Martindale having lost all benefit of the doubt. Expecting dramatic change has sailed and now the hope is that he can adjust his tendencies even just a tinge in order to stop the sieve-like vulnerabilities from happening so often. Williams is the type of quarterback who will punish these (self-inflicted) mistakes; how many he gets the chance to exploit will set the tone this weekend.
