Back in the AFC Championship Game for the first time since January 2019, the New England Patriots will be going up against a formidable opponent. The Denver Broncos are the top seed in the AFC, propelled to a 14-3 record in the regular season behind one of the most disruptive defenses in football.
Yes Denver is facing some major uncertainty at the quarterback position, but the team top to bottom is as impressive a collection of talent as you will find. Naturally, the Patriots will need to be on top of their
game on Sunday, which means playing sound in all three phases and winning in some crucial areas.
With that said, here are our X-factors for the AFC title game, using numbers from NFL Next Gen Stats.
Offensive X-factors
Keep Drake Maye clean: The Patriots’ biggest issue on the offensive side of the ball so far in the playoffs has been the pressure their quarterback has been subjected to. In two games thus far, he has been sacked 10 times and pressured on 30.6% of his dropbacks. Granted, Drake Maye and company have gone up against some of the best defenses in football — L.A. and. Houston were ranked second and sixth in EPA per play on that side of the ball — but New England’s offensive operation has been noticeably disrupted.
That is particularly true considering that five of the sacks plus one of Maye’s scramble attempts have resulted in fumbles by the Pro Bowler, with half of those ending as turnovers. The Patriots did manage to overcome these problems in the wild card and divisional rounds, but a continuation could spell doom on Sunday in In Denver.
Preventing that starts with minimizing the pressure situations Maye finds himself in — a challenging task against a defense ranked first in sacks (68) and second in pressure rate (30.5%) during the regular season. So, what can New England do? For starters, the communication up front needs to be on point; Denver used one of the highest blitz rates in the NFL this year (33.7%). In addition, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels could provide some help especially to rookie left tackle Will Campbell — something that happened only sporadically so far: the Patriots have used chips on only 13% of pass sets, and an extra lineman to his side on only 3%.
Pick the right battles: The Patriots will be going up against one of the top pass defenses in the NFL, a unit that ranked ninth in EPA per dropback (-0.035). Attacking it will not be easy, but it is no insurmountable task either: as with every defense, there are spots to be picked to attack; the Patriots just need to choose the right ones.
One is throwing to the field side, which is where standout cornerback Pat Surtain II has not aligned lately. In fact, over the last three game he has played exclusively on the boundary. Denver could move him around, as it has done often in the regular season, but over the last few weeks, Riley Moss manned the field side. While a capable player himself, he is an easier player to pick on — something he himself knows.
“Yeah, no doubt,” Moss said when asked this week whether or not he expects the Patriots to go after him this week. “And you know, the entire world knows that, I know that, you guys know that. It’s going to be exciting. I’m excited for it. It’s going to be a good challenge. It’s going to be sweet. So yeah, I look forward to it.”
Another battle the Patriots need to consider fighting offensively is throwing deep. Denver is held opposing QBs to a 20.4% completion rate on deep passes this season, the best mark in the NFL. Drake Maye, meanwhile, ranked second with a 52.1% completion rate on shots down the field. As was the case against a Texans defense superior overall to Denver’s, Maye should not be afraid to go deep.
Get big in the run game: The Broncos’ run defense finished eighth in EPA per play (-0.105), but had its issues against Josh Allen, James Cook and the Buffalo Bills last Sunday. Part of it may have been by design — passing the ball is simply more efficient in today’s NFL — but the fact also is that Denver does not have the biggest defense against the run: the top five defensive linemen along the interior and on the edge all weigh under 300 pounds, which could put them at a disadvantage if New England decides to go big.
Employing the likes of Jack Westover and Khyiris Tonga as fullbacks, and Thayer Munford Jr. as a sixth offensive lineman, could help kickstart New England’s ground game. This would have another added benefit: the fewer possessions, the higher the pressure on Broncos backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
Defensive X-factors
Put the pressure on Jarrett Stidham: Speaking of pressure and Jarrett Stidham, the former Patriots fourth-round draft pick is set to make only his fifth career start on Sunday. While he is no scrub as based on the. fact that he has managed to make an NFL roster in each of the last seven seasons, his lack of experience and full-speed game reps puts him in a tough position filling in for starter Bo Nix.
The Patriots will need to exploit this. Shortening the game is one way of doing so, as is simply making him slow down his process. How can this be achieved? By muddying the waters as well as possible: blitz looks, coverage rotation, you name it — everything Zak Kuhr can throw at him could do the trick because it doesn’t need much. If Stidham is a fraction of a second slow to process or pull the trigger, the timing of the entire offensive operation might be thrown off.
Beating Stidham mentally rather than physically could also help neutralize one of Denver’s biggest strengths, an offensive line that has surrendered a league-best sack rate of only 3.6%.
Be opportunistic: Defensive game plans are intricate constructs, with everything tying together. In this sense, so does this X-factor: if the Patriots do slow Stidham’s process down and increase the pressure he is under, they should get a chance at some interceptions. Whether it is off-target throws or passes into unfavorable coverage shells, New England could get its hands on some balls.
That said, cornerback Marcus Jones cautioned against an overly-aggressive approach this week.
“Our main thing is being where we need to be because whenever you start thinking like that, it kind of puts you in the bind of maybe your eyes being the wrong place or maybe you’re not being in the right zone,” Jones explained. “So, we have to control what we can control and then go from there.”
Be ready to adjust: How the Broncos will approach this week’s game will be fascinating to see. Try to rely heavily on the run game and therefore move away from what has been the established pattern of operation? Or use Jarrett Stidham similarly to Bo Nix in terms of moving him off the spot and giving him a similar playbook to work with?
There are arguments for both, but that is something the Patriots can only be reactive toward. No matter what the Broncos show, they need to be ready to adjust if need be. That would be a necessary skill regardless: Denver head coach Sean Payton is not known for conservative usage of his personnel, which means that New England probably should expect some unfamiliar looks or packages regardless of whether the Broncos go run-heavy or Stidham-centric on Sunday.
