There’s this popular belief known as the Law of Averages. While it’s not a recognized theorem in the mathematical world, it’s a common saying that refers to the idea that if something happens more or less often than it should, logic says things will eventually balance back out and return to normal. It’s a fallacy in the gambling world; if you keep flipping a coin and it keeps landing on tails, that doesn’t mean the odds are better it will land on heads the next time because each individual flip is a separate
event with no relationship to another. The same applies if you keep starting a card game over with a full or new deck — your odds of winning don’t improve just because it’s been a while since you last won, because this hand has no relationship to the last.
However, one place where averages and the “laws” that go with them do often apply is basketball. While still technically a mathematical fallacy, one thing about sports is more than anything, it comes down to talent, and across a large sample size, the numbers do in fact tell a story. Sure, each individual game is a separate event from each other, but it’s the same players with the same skillset going through the same motions, so there in fact a relationship across separate events, and more often than not, they will do close to what the numbers say they will.
Of course, there are always outliers and unexpected events — sports wouldn’t be any fun if everything always went as expected — and that’s exactly what happened last night in the first half between the San Antonio Spurs and Chicago Bulls. The Spurs were on a nine-game winning against what we can all probably admit is not the most difficult stretch of schedule ever, but they were walking into a potential trap game considering it was against a team on a seven-game losing streak, and the Law of Averages says one of those streaks is getting closer to ending, right? It was also the end of a four-game road trip, things have been too easy on said-trip, and they may have been looking ahead to Friday’s Cup match against the Warriors (which may have lost some luster if Steph Curry is out after appearing toinjure his abdomen last night night against the Rockets).
Other than a flurry from three and a hot start from De’Aaron Fox briefly keeping them in it, the Spurs quickly found themselves falling behind while the Bulls were insanely hot through the first 18 minutes of the game. They shot 17-20 (or 85%) from the field in the first quarter and at one point were shooting 83% from both the field AND three in the second. While the Spurs’ effort wasn’t exactly what you’d call admirable, I was never too worried during the first half because I knew the Law of Averages would eventually take over.
No team, not even the Warriors of a decade ago, can keep up those types of numbers for an entire game, let alone a team as bad as these Bulls. They got the lead as high as 23 in the first half, but the Spurs weathered the storm and waited for their numbers to start averaging back to the mean while knowing they had a another gear they could turn on. They used a run before halftime to cut the deficit to a very manageable 14-points while the Bulls’ numbers starting dropping (they were “only” shooting 67% by the midway mark), took their presumed licking from Mitch Johnson in the locker room, then came out firing in the second half.
As the Spurs returned to their normal selves, the Bulls were understandably overwhelmed, knowing they had already given their best shot and the Law of Averages had now taken its hold. Victor Wembanyama went back to demoralizing teams with an unstoppable presence at the rim, balanced out by taking (and making) timely jumpers within the flow of the offense. By the end of the game, everything was as it should be: the Spurs won while shooting 50% from the field (38% from three), and while the Bulls still ended with impressive final numbers (58% and 52%, respectively) thanks to their otherworldly first half, they made five fewer field goals thanks in part to coughing the ball up 19 times compared to the Spurs’ 6. The Law of Averages was alive and well for the Spurs 10th straight victory.
Or, you know, maybe that had nothing to do with it at all and there was just something off with the Bulls’ court. You could have watched that game and simply concluded that, based on the massive swings in shooting each team took from half-to-half, “Right rim good, left rim bad.”
Takeaways
- “Oh, Wemby had 32 points on 13-18 shooting, 9 rebounds and 5 blocks? Ho hum, just another day at the office.” Yes, we have reached that point with him. His numbers have been so outlandish and even historical lately that I hardly even noticed him last night. And while it’s fun to see opposing fans oohing and awing, we’re just like, “He dunked from the free throw line? Nothing new.”
- You know how else you know someone has arrived at greatness? When the haters start hating. “He’s 7’7”, he should have a post game to be great!” Wemby starts dominating in the paint: “So what? He’s just tall!” The funniest “rage” tweet I saw recently was one dude complaining that he can “only” handle 25 minutes per game, so he must not be in good shape. No bro, that’s just a result of all the blowouts and him not needing any more minutes. And if he was playing into extended garbage time, you’d just accuse him of stat padding. As the old saying goes, “Haters gonna hate, Spurs gonna win”.
- I think it’s officially time that we put Fox’s poor finals performance behind us. We all know he was playing on one leg, and while he had a couple of massive gaffes, he wasn’t the only one who messed up or cost them the series; it was a team effort. (I even pointed out in a comment on a Feed post yesterday that had the Finals gone any further, Wemby would have a Draymond Green mark on his legacy because he more than likely would have been suspended for Game 6 for flagrant accumulation — and that was after he was lucky to avoid it after Game 3. The league wasn’t going to bail him out twice.) But back to Fox, he has been a tremendous steadying present for this still-young squad, with Stephon Castle in a bit of a funk right now Dylan Harper playing very well overall but streaky. It’s time we get back to remembering and appreciating the good Fox brings, which far outweighs a couple of bad plays on a bum ankle.
- The strength of schedule of the Spurs’ start to the season may not be the strongest, but it has been exhausting, at least for me. Three back-to-backs in the first 10 games, 12 of the first 20 with tip-off times at 8:00 or later — it’s been brutal for my sleep schedule. That’s why last night’s 7:00 tip-off time was the most amazing feeling ever. I watched, it ended, then I went to bed at my normal time (or what has now become early), and I’m relatively fresh for a Thursday morning. The good news is, after game 20 — 8:30 against the Lakers on Black Friday — the Spurs won’t have another game with a tip-off time later than 7 until #42 on January 20: their first game back from the Europe trip.
