This current Phillies era of being October regulars began in 2022, when they got in as the final NL Wild Card and then went on a run to the World Series before falling to the Astros. In the three years since, they’ve made the postseason every time and won the NL East in the last two seasons. However, they haven’t been able to match that postseason run in the years since, having lost in the NLDS in both of the last two seasons.
This season, they’ll go in on the shortlist of NL favorites again, although
questions still remain. Can this be the year they return to the Fall Classic and even win it, or will the season end in frustration again?
Philadelphia Phillies
2025 Record: 96-66 (1st in NL East)
2026 FanGraphs Projection: 87-75 (3rd in NL East, 2nd NL Wild Card)
On the offensive side of things, the Phillies will run out a fairly similar lineup to last year. There are some differences, and there could’ve been even more, but they ended up re-signing Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, meaning the core of what their lineup has been in recent years in still intact.
The biggest difference on that front is in right field. After a turbulent end to his Phillies’ career, Nick Castellanos was released by the team back before spring training got going. Earlier in the offseason, they signed former Rangers All-Star and 2023 World Series winner Adolis García, and he’ll likely handle most of the duties in right. Offensively, that change may be a bit of a wash, at least based on what he and Castellanos did last year. Defensively, though, it should be a big improvement. While he’s won a Gold Glove in right in the past, García doesn’t grade out as one of the best at that spot anymore, but Castellanos was one of the worst defensive right fielders around in recent years. It shouldn’t be hard to better that.
The main worry around their offense is just that everyone is a year older with another year of wear and tear on their bodies. Bryce Harper is still an excellent hitter, but not at the 170 wRC+ level that he was in his early years in Philly. Trea Turner is coming off the second best season of his career according to fWAR and there’s no guarantees that he can be good to that extent again. J.T. Realmuto still rates very good defensively, but was below average last year and is projected to be again this year. Odds are that not everyone will regress enough to make them miss the playoffs or anything, but if one or two do, they could fall behind in the NL East race.
The Phillies’ actual biggest loss of the offseason came in the rotation. Pitcher Ranger Suarez left in free agency, signing with the Red Sox. Even taking him out of it, the Phillies’ rotation was very good last year, but Suarez has consistently been a solid to very good pitcher since he became a full-time member of Philly’s rotation in 2022.
Some of their hopes in replace him land on prospect Andrew Painter. Since 2022, Painter has been pretty consistently rated in top 100 prospect lists, ranking has high as the top ten at points. The 2025 MiLB season was his first full one after missing most of 2023 and ‘24 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He didn’t post the best numbers in his 22 starts at Triple-A, but they’re hoping another year back from the surgery and his prospect pedigree will improve things. Even besides him, led by Cristopher Sánchez and the recently-extended Jesús Luzardo, the Phillies should have a strong rotation, which will also be bolstered by the return of Zack Wheeler, who missed time due to blood clots last year, at some point.
The bullpen will also be key for the Phillies this year. While several members of their 2025 bullpen put up good numbers, it was occasionally a turbulent year in that area for them. That led to them making a deal for Jhoan Duran at the trade deadline last year, and further adding to the mix by signing Brad Keller, on top of making a couple minor deals for backend guys. There’s certainly hope that the ‘pen will be a strength for them in ‘26.
The projections expect them to fall back to the pack in the division, but a lot of that is because they all seem to expect bounce back seasons from the Mets and especially the Braves. However, it wouldn’t remotely be a surprise to see the Phillies take the NL East again. For their sake though, they probably need another deep October run.
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