For the second year in a row, Tom Stephenson from Anchor of Gold joins us to talk about Vanderbilt from the perspective of an actual Commodore fan (yes, they do exist). The faithful are excited about their team’s prospects and the sudden surge in fortunes over the past year with Diego Pavia and Tim Beck bringing the New Mexico State offense to Nashville. Without further ado, here’s Tom’s thoughts:
1. Last year, Vanderbilt felt like they were building something, but dropped too many games they shouldn’t
have dropped and fell to 7-6. This year, they’re 5-0 to start the season with a big win over South Carolina. What do you see that’s changed from a year ago that’s making this team look like they may be taking that next step?
It wasn’t really common knowledge late last season, but Pavia got banged up in the Kentucky game (the week after Alabama) and Vandy’s offense suddenly went from one that scored 40 on Bama to one that struggled to score 20, and only limped to 6-6 because Ball State sucks and Jerry Kill has some sort of voodoo on Hugh Freeze. Pavia was healthy for the bowl game against Georgia Tech and you suddenly saw more or less the same Vandy team that had been there early in the season. That might be oversimplifying things a bit, because the offensive line has gotten better and the offense just has more weapons in general; WR Tre Richardson is the kind of speedster Vandy just didn’t have last year when the receivers frequently struggled to get separation.
2. There are still 5 undefeated teams left in the SEC. Make your case that Vandy deserves to be at the top.
The funny thing is, if you swapped the name on the front of the jersey with literally any other team in the SEC (okay, maybe not Mississippi State)… this would be a pretty common belief right now? Like if, I don’t know, Tennessee were 5-0, averaging 49 points a game, had hung 70 on Georgia State and beaten two Power 4 teams on the road by 24 points each, pitching a shutout in the second half both times… they’d be ranked in the top 5, right? I’m not making that up, right? Am I taking crazy pills or is it weird that we’re being written off like this? I mean, I get it, but… hell, you guys would be perfectly happy with the start we’ve had to the season. And Clark Lea in the postgame interview after beating Utah State 55-35 was even showing the Saban quality of finding things to be pissed off about when he’s 5-0 and just easily dispatched a G5 team.
3. Eli Stowers is awesome as a pass catching tight end and is the team’s leading threat…. but are there any wide receivers who you think could/should give Alabama issues?
The aforementioned Tre Richardson, who’s a bit undersized and just transferred up from a Division II school but has the kind of speed that Vanderbilt fans have always wished we had. We’ve had good receivers before but they’ve usually been much more of the mold of “sure-handed guy who you can throw ten billion screen passes to” than actual burners.
4. How will Vanderbilt split the carries between Pavia, Sedrick Alexander, and Makhilyn Young? Which one do you predict will get the most rushing yards this week?
Hard to tell, because OC Tim Beck has a tendency to roll with the hot hand between Alexander and Young, and a lot of the Pavia runs are basically just by accident in the form of scrambles (though obviously there are designed runs in there.) The two running backs are both bigger backs and so there’s no real “thunder and lightning” sort of thing going on; Young’s YPC is inflated by a single very long run against Georgia State. The actual question I have is whether they’ll start working (former?) walk-on Jamezell Lassiter, who has 144 yards and two touchdowns on eight carries this season, into the rotation more as he really does give the team a home run threat that it hasn’t had.
5. Let’s talk defense: Who are two players you think will make the big impact plays this week?
Randon Fontenette seems like he’s due for some big plays, which he hasn’t really done much of this season after being the big-play guy last season. (Bama fans will remember him as the guy who took a tipped Jalen Milroe pass to the house last season.) Edge rusher Miles Capers through five games has already basically equaled his havoc-play production from all of last season and Alabama will need to put in work to keep him out of the backfield.
6. What’s a specific position group (or specific player) matchup that you think Vanderbilt can exploit vs Alabama, and what’s one that you are most worried that Alabama will exploit?
So uh, this is the kind of thing I will say and will probably regret saying because it feels like the kind of thing that I simply cannot believe to be true, but: I kind of like how Vandy matches up with Alabama in the trenches? (DID I REALLY JUST PUT THAT IN WRITING, TO BE READ ON THE INTERNET?!?! WHERE PEOPLE CAN READ THIS?) The matchup that concerns me is Ty Simpson and Alabama’s receivers against Vanderbilt’s defensive backs, and specifically the cornerbacks, who I have not had to think about much this season and I would like to continue not thinking about much if only because usually the only time I think about cornerbacks is when they’re getting burned.
7. Since we must: What’s your game prediction? Does Vandy pull off the back-to-back?
While I would like to predict Vandy to win, no, I cannot do it, because if I predict it then it will almost certainly not happen. I do think it will be closer than some of the more chesty Bama fans out there (and the Tennessee and Auburn fans who weirdly want Alabama to kick Vandy’s ass for reasons that most of us would probably rather not understand) think it will be, so I’ll go Alabama 35, Vanderbilt 31.
8. How do you think the Commodores finish the season… And what would be the bare minimum for the entire season to be considered a success at this point?
Funny thing is, before the season started I’d have probably told you that I would be fine with going… 7-5? 8-4? After the way the season has started, I would be disappointed with that. (Not “fire the coach” disappointed, mind you. Regular disappointed.) My guess is that Vandy will win the remaining home games against LSU, Mizzou, Auburn, and Kentucky, and all four of those fanbases will be extremely mad and at least three of them will want the coach fired for it. While I could see stealing a road win to get 10-2 I’ll be completely rational here and say that 9-3 with a bowl win is a success. We’ve literally never won 10 games in our history, why would I be mad about “only” going 10-3?
9. Diego Pavia gets all the headlines. But is the recent turn in success in the Commodore program something that you think is bigger than Pavia and will sustain after he leaves?
It’s admittedly easy to chalk the last couple of years up to Pavia, but there’s a lot more commitment from the top down to having a good football program than there’s been at any point in my memory (I’m 41) and that’s reflected in the record. They’ve put real money into NIL and while the academic standards for athletes were always overblown they’ve really relaxed the standards for transfers (which were kind of a sore spot for Vanderbilt in the first couple years of the portal era.) It’s hard to predict these things but I would be less surprised by sustained success than I would be by going back to 2-10 every year.
