Over the last 24 to 48 hours, there has been a lot of smoke around a Foster Griffin extension. Buster Olney reported that the Nats have been exploring the idea of extending Griffin. With the deadline just a few days away, it feels like there will either be a deal soon or the Nats All-Star southpaw will be shipped off.
The comparison to Seth Lugo is an interesting one. Like Griffin, Lugo is a pitcher with a deep mix, who relies on command and variety to throw hitters off. He also did not have a large history of starting, spending most of his career in the bullpen. Lugo received a 2-year deal worth $46 million.
That $23 million AAV is pricey, and could certainly throw the Nats off. However, there is another Royals pitcher whose contract could also be a comparison point. Michael Wacha got a 3-year $51 million deal, which has aged very well. If I were the Nats, that would be a number worth paying.
With Griffin pushing for that Lugo number and the Nats looking at the Wacha deal, they could meet somewhere in the middle on something like a 3-year $57 million deal. Whether Toboni or Lerner would be willing to give out that kind of deal is unclear, but that is what I think the market would be around.
This morning, Barry Svrluga put out a good piece arguing for a Griffin extension. His argument was simple but effective. The Nats are not in the same place they were in the past when selling rentals was a no-brainer. This is a team whose window is opening and still has a chance to make the playoffs.
Griffin has been a huge part of that success. Losing him would pretty much erase the Nats playoff hopes. The Nats have won 17 of Griffin’s 21 starts. With Griffin and Cavalli on the mound, the Nats are a real force. However, things get really shaky after that. If Griffin is locked up and Connelly Early comes back, the Nats rotation would be in good shape.
However, the playoffs do remain fairly unlikely. If an extension cannot be reached, trading Griffin would be the smart play. His value is likely at its peak right now and just about every contender needs starting pitching.
While I think Griffin will be good for years to come, there is some risk for a guy with such a small track record. A lot of pitchers who come back from Asia have their best season in the first one back.
If you look at the ERA indicators, Griffin is due for some regression, and this is probably a career year. However, with his command and deep bag of pitches, I think he can be a mid rotation starter for years to come. That Wacha like deal is right in line with mid-rotation money.
Personally, I hope Griffin sticks around. Watching him pitch is such a blessing. Seeing a guy dominate without velocity is so much fun in this modern era. He is truly pitching out there, and playing chess with hitters all game.
When hitters face Griffin, they are in for mental and physical warfare. It always feels like Griffin is one step ahead of hitters. Hopefully, tomorrow is not the last time we get to see Griffin play chess on the field for the Nats.
It is time for the Lerner’s to put their money where their mouth is. For years, fans have been holding out hope that the Lerner’s were just waiting for the right moment to pounce and open their wallets. Well, based on how this season has gone, the time is now. A Foster Griffin extension would be a great first step in winning back the fanbase.
