Look, I admit it. I’ve gotten ahead of myself with this one here. There is still A LOT of basketball to be played.
The fact that the Phoenix Suns are in playoff conversations while boasting a record 10 games above .500 remains incredible given the low to modest expectations entering the season.
It feels like the Suns are playing with house money. They weren’t supposed to be here. The front office sold us a vision of what they wanted to be this offseason. It was met with plenty of eyerolls, but they sure
as heck have delivered on those promises so far and then some.
Jordan Ott has this team humming. They have a new identity that is the polar opposite of what it was a year ago.
They are currently 27-17, sitting just inside the top-6 at the 5 seed, sitting a half game ahead of the Lakers and Wolves. They are “tied” with Houston for the 4th seed (lose tiebreaker), which would give them home-court advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs if they can leap them. Is that goal too greedy?
Staying in front of the Lakers and Wolves feels realistic. So then it comes down to the Rockets, Nuggets, and Spurs. Denver isn’t budging as much without Jokic as many thought, and he returns soon. That may be a long shot. The Spurs have been steady. Ultimately, Phoenix just needs to continue stacking wins.
Priority One: Just make it
The NBA giveth and the NBA taketh. Before we get too ahead of ourselves in discussing the playoffs, the Suns need to continue doing their job and make it.
The Western Conference is a beast, and every win counts. One game could be the difference between a home court advantage in round 1 or a play-in game. It’s going to be that tight.
Phoenix’s next stretch 5-game stretch includes a ton more Eastern Conference teams! And a chance to improve upon their positioning in the West as their opponents begin to play more games to catch up to the Suns, who seemingly have been 2-3 games played ahead of the rest of the West.
Who should they want in round 1? Who should they try to avoid?
Let’s start with avoiding the Thunder and their side of the bracket. First of all, you don’t want them because that means you played yourself down into the play-in and maybe lost a play-in game. Next, try like hell to get a top-3 seed so we wind up on the opposite side of the bracket.
Look, they’re not an unbeatable juggernaut. But they are clearly the best in the West and have a tough home environment to win in. Avoid please.
The Spurs? Jordan Ott has done a masterful job of making life hell for Victor Wembanyama. They’re a tough team with great guard depth and a unique blend of size and speed. They are still very young and don’t have much playoff experience, so they’d be the lower of the four opponents. Denver is a tough one. They have the best player in the world in Nikola Jokic, and at full strength, they present some matchup problems for Phoenix.
Houston, we have a problem. Phoenix has struggled against them during the regular season, but each matchup has had its fair sahre of injuries on each side. The latest loss came at the hands of a KD game-winner in a super winnable game. I don’t feat them as much now as I did at the beginning of the year. But they have a ton of wings and big forwards, making it a tough matchup for Phoenix.
I’d rank these four teams in order of least wanting to play them to most as follows:
- OKC Thunder
- Denver Nuggets
- Houston Rockets
- San Antonio Spurs
The odds are Phoenix plays one of these four teams in the opening round, barring an unexpected injury or team landslide. Minnesota and Los Angeles are lurking as well, and in the next tier I’d go:
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Los Angeles Lakers
These next few weeks will tell us a lot about these teams and should help the dust settle a bit. Or maybe we all stay bunched up, and it continues to be pure chaos. Either way, it’s fun to be in these discussions.
