Trades and free agency acquisitions are often an emotional thing. Teams sometimes want a shot of enthusiasm and getting that star player feels like it will galvanize the fan base. However, most general managers don’t think that way anymore. There is a science to this thing and when a player like Jeremy Pena becomes available in trade talks, there will be a limited number of teams where it makes sense for a trade to happen. Obviously, we can look at what is coming back later, but we are going to list
five teams that might think it is a good idea to make a deal for Pena.
The obvious first question is what this analysis is based on. There are three factors that impact whether a team should consider a Jeremy Pena. First, they would need to have a need a shortstop. So, we will look at the gap between what Pena did according to FWAR and what that team’s shortstop did. The bigger the gap the more it makes sense for a team to consider a move. Secondly, the team needs to be a contender for the playoffs next year. He has only one more year of club control, so it makes no sense for a non-contending team to bring him in. Lastly, it needs to be a richer team that could potentially afford an extension. It makes no sense for a Tampa Bay or Milwaukee to decide they could use him because he likely won’t stay there long term.
Boston Red Sox
Won-loss record: 87-75
2026 Payroll: 207.99 million
2026 Shortstop: Trevor Story 0.2 FWAR
Vince Gennaro used to be the executive director of SABR. He published a landmark book titled “Diamond Dollars: The economics of winning baseball.” The book contained two relevant points here. First, the notion that players are worth ten of 15 wins is patently ridiculous. Sure, Pete Crow-Alexander had a brilliant season, but most superstar players finish between five and six wins. Then, you would have to subtract what the current player at that position does to get a net gain. As we can see from Pena’s 3.4 above, the Red Sox would have a net gain of three wins according to Fangraphs.
That spills us into the second point. According to Gennaro, there is a sweet spot where it makes sense to spend. A 70 win team should not sell out to add three wins. It makes no sense. However, a team in that 85 to 90 win range would see their playoff odds increase a ton with just three additional victories. Going from 87 wins to 90 wins virtually guarantees a spot in the new format. So, it would seem like they would motivated to do that.
Obviously, Story is still under contract and no one is taking that contract off their hands. So, they would either need to release him or relegate him to the bench. Obviously, the question of a trade fit is whole different question. The Astros should be in the business of taking the best package regardless of who offers it. However, given the three parameters above, it would appear that the Red Sox would be the most motivated buyer.
New York Yankees
Won-Loss Record:93-68
2026 Payroll: 308.34 million
2026 Shortstop: Jose Caballero 1.3 FWAR
The Yankees are not in the top spot because they are not quite as desperate. Caballero is not an exciting player, but he is useful. Of course, they could let Jazz Chilsohm walk in free agency and move Caballero to second. That would give them some payroll flexibility assuming there is no hard cap. They are not in that sweet spot zone that Gennaro described, but they could be motivated to make a run at the Rays for the division. In that case, a net gain of two wins could come in handy.
There are two things complicating this one. First, the collective bargaining agreement could serious hamstring the Yankees and prevent them from adding any payroll. Secondly, Pena seems to have gravitated towards Boston and that matters when looking at long-term possibilities. I would not offer a king’s ransom for a guy I know will be one and done.
Atlanta Braves
Won-Loss Record: 94-68
2026 Payroll: 263.46 million
2026 shortstop: Mauricio Dubon (FA) 2.4 FWAR
The fact that both Mauricio Dubon Ha Seong Kim might not be back in Atlanta complicates this situation greatly. Maybe the Braves does bite the bullet and sign Dubon to a more reasonable number. Like the Yankees, they will be looking at the CBA negotiations with an eye for how to pivot if things break a certain way. Obviously if the Astros trade Pena then Dubon becomes an immediate FA option in Houston, but that is a different topic for a different day.
Like the Yankees, they are also outside of that magic zone where motivated moves make sense. A Pena move could be seen as a shot across the bough for the Dodgers and Brewers since the Braves are likely to win the NL East again. Obviously, what each of these teams can offer is a whole separate conversation we can get into later.
Less Realistic Options
Philadelphia Phillies
Won-Loss Record: 88-74
2026 Payroll: 291.95 milion
2026 Shortstop: Trea Turner 1.1 FWAR
Turner is entrenched on the roster and signed through the apocalypse. However, he was -17 DRS last year at short and -8 and -9 respectively in OAA and FRV. There is talk of moving Turner to second base and bringing in a more capable shortstop. Obviously, that involves some mental gymnastics that the above teams really don’t have to deal with.
However, they exist in that Gennaro zone at 88 wins. Their payroll is such that they will have to pivot if the sport goes to a hard cap. Such a move would depend on the mood of ownership. If they want to make one last run with this nucleus then getting a Pena and move Turner could do the trick. If Turner could be a neutral second baseman then he probably elevates himself to a two win player. That would effectively give them three additional victories over what they had last year. I hate trying to read the mind of an owner, so this goes under the less realistic options.
San Francisco Giants
Won-Loss Record: 65-97
2026 Payroll: 190.17 million
2026 Shortstop: Willy Adames 0.4 FWAR
There is a old adage that you don’t get in the way of your opponent when they are making a mistake. I put the Giants in the less likely category because frankly it doesn’t make sense from a competitive or financial standpoint. Plus, moving Adames means you might have to move a young second baseman that looks like a good young player. However, Buster Posey is not the smartest of executives, so I could see him thinking this move vaults him back into contention in the NL West.
Unlike the other teams, the Giants can afford to add payroll no matter where the new rules come down. They could be in an enviable position if the Dodgers have to suddenly shed salary. What’s troubling is that they would likely have to overpay Pena to get him to stay there because that’s not a good home ballpark for him. At that point, you would have several players with long-term deals that could become negative assets if they aren’t negative already. Of course, there I go again bringing logic and reason to a situation where an executive could make an emotional move. If he offers the right package I’m not getting in his way.
