In what will be one of the most shocking moves of the offseason, the Chicago White Sox signed famed Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami to a 2-year $34 million deal. At the beginning of the offseason, many analysts expected Murakami to sign a deal north of $100 million. However, his market was much slower than expected due to swing and miss concerns, leading to the White Sox jumping into the race.
With Murakami’s market being this low, I am a bit disappointed that the Nats did not seem to take a swing. Of course, we do not know for sure, but the Nats name was never linked to the Japanese slugger. On paper, Murakami would have been a great opportunity signing for the Nats.
Munetaka Murakami is as big of a boom or bust player as you will find in free agency, even among Japanese imports. He has the potential to be a 40 home run bat, but also has a decent chance of flaming out due to his swing and miss issues and lack of a defensive home. Basically, he could be Kyle Schwarber or he could be post Texas Rangers Joey Gallo. At that price, I would have liked the Nats to be the team to find out.
Over the last few years, the soon to be 26 year old has been one of the most feared power hitters in Japan. In 2022, he hit an insane 56 home runs in the NPB. Since then, his strikeout rate has gone from around 21% to 28 or 29% and he has not hit quite as many homers. Last season, Murakami hit 22 homers in 56 NPB games and 24 in total. His slugging percentage of .663 was massive, but so was his 28.6% K rate.
Despite all that risk, Murakami would have been the most interesting option for the Nats at first base. You do not find guys with 80 grade raw power on trees. Murakami has also shown strong plate discipline in Japan as well, walking over 14% of the time in each of the last six seasons. Those on base skills could offset some of the contact questions.
Given the fact he signed with the White Sox, Murakami was also clearly willing to sign with a rebuilding club. The contract should also be well within the Nats budget. It is a bit frustrating to see a team in a similar spot as the Nats take such a fun swing, while the Nats remain passive in the free agent market.
Murakami could have been the kind of player that really excited this fanbase as well. His power is absolutely ridiculous. The upside comparison for Murakami is Kyle Schwarber, and all Nats fans remember how fun he was back in 2021. Entering his age 26 season, Murakami is not a finished product either. It would have been very exciting, but I guess it was not meant to be.
I understand why Paul Toboni would stay away though. It is clear from his weak market that MLB teams were petrified about his contact skills, or lack thereof. A 2-year $34 million deal may not be what his market was expected to be, but it is still a sizable commitment for a player with such a low floor.
There is a real chance that Murakami just can’t make enough contact against MLB pitching and just goes back to Japan after his contract is up. However, there is also a possibility that the White Sox got a 40 home run bat on a massive discount. These are the kinds of bets Paul Toboni should be making.
The Nats have not had answers at the first base position for a long time and Murakami could have solved that problem. Given the fact the Nats signed Foster Griffin, Toboni obviously has an idea of what is going on in the NPB.
It is a bummer that the Nats did not try to get involved here, but I still trust the Toboni process. I am curious to see what the Nats do at the first base position. Given the lack of internal options, it feels like they have to bring someone in via free agency. Toboni has hinted to that in some of his interviews at the Winter Meetings.
A guy like Rhys Hoskins makes a lot of sense as a veteran right handed bat who can add some thump. The Nats could use some right handed power and Hoskins provides that. Entering his age 33 season and coming off a slightly underwhelming two year tenure with the Brewers, Hoskins does not have a ton of upside, but you know what you are getting.
It pretty clearly will not happen this offseason, and I understand why, but I hope the Nats become players in the free agent market in the next couple years. If the Nats show progress in 2026, Mark Lerner is going to have to open up the checkbook, or else he will face the wrath of this fanbase.
