According to every national baseball writer on the planet, the Twins have officially sent a qualifying offer to catcher Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers has until November 17th to decide whether or not to accept the one year, $23.15M contract.
The qualifying offer is a one year deal based on the average of the top 125 MLB salaries. If players decline the QO, they will remain free agents eligible to negotiate with anyone in the league. However, the team that signs a QO player will forfeit a draft pick, while the team losing the QO player will gain one. The specifics of the picks lost or gained depend on whether teams pay the CBT or are revenue sharing recipients and the size of the contract the player receives. Players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they have never received it in the past and spent the entire of the previous season on that organization’s roster (e.g. Tarik Skubal is not eligible since he was traded midseason).
In the Twins’ case, they would receive a pick immediately following the first round if Jeffers signed with another team for $50M or more. If he signed for $50M or less, the pick would fall after the second round and Competitive Balance Round B. However, Jeffers would be much better off taking the big, single season payday and re-entering the market next season rather than taking a multi-year contract for less than $50M, so you can bet on the Twins receiving an extra first round pick should Jeffers sign elsewhere.
If the Twins signed anyone else on that list, say Brandon Lowe to fill the hole at second base, they would forfeit their third-highest selection in the upcoming round, which would be their Competitive Balance Round A selection if Jeffers went elsewhere or their second round pick if he stayed. If they signed two players off that list (now we’re dreaming), both their third and fourth highest selections would be lost.
Jeffers is in an interesting position with the qualifying offer. By AAV, the highest paid catcher in the league is the Mariners’ Cal Raleigh at $17.5M. After him, Philly’s JT Realmuto checks in at $15M and the Dodgers’ Will Smith is third at $14M. So on the one hand, Jeffers would, at least briefly, be the highest paid catcher in baseball by nearly $6M. On the other, it’s a one year deal and a poorly placed foul tip could place any future earnings in jeopardy.
Looking at the usual mix of contenders, there also aren’t many that need a starting catcher. The Yankees absolutely would want Jeffers, and pursued him at last year’s trade deadline, but there have been questions in recent years about how willing the Steinbrenners are to run up their payroll beyond the current levels. The Blue Jays are set with Alejandro Kirk. The Red Sox and Rays picked up their long-term catchers at the 2026 trade deadline in Adley Rutschman and Liam Hicks, respectively. The Tigers have last year’s All-Star starter in Dillon Dingler, while the Rangers are reportedly looking to shed payroll this offseason. And on the NL side, really only the Cubs have a hole at catcher and money to spend, but they also have to rebuild their starting rotation on the fly after losing all five of their starting pitchers to free agency.
In reality, the best option for everyone involved might be a return to the Twins. Minnesota needs a bridge to Vahn Lackey and the pending lockout has some usual big market players behaving oddly. It’s why the Twins were able to sign Carlos Correa to a one year deal after the last lockout. Scott Boras is great at maximizing player earnings, and he’s smart enough to know that no one is touching a $20M+ AAV for a free agent catcher. Taking the QO and re-entering the market next year without the risk of losing draft picks is the best path to Jeffers getting the most money anyway.
Seems like a win/win to me.
