Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight sluggers Azamat Murzakanov vs. Paulo Costa will throw down this weekend (Sat., April 11, 2026) inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, for UFC 327.
Undefeated as a professional (16-0), Murzakanov should have a lot more hype. He’s won six straight bouts inside the Octagon, stopping five of his six opponents via knockout. Perhaps it’s an image problem? 36 years old and small for the division, Murzakanov doesn’t feel like a title threat even if he’s
already climbed to the No. 6 position.
Meanwhile, Costa is hitting the career reset button by switching weight. The hulking Brazilian has been inconsistent ever since his 2020 loss to Israel Adesanya, competing just five times since then. Hopefully, he’ll be able to fight more often in his new division. On the plus side, Costa did look excellent in his final Middleweight appearance, a one-sided pummeling of Roman Kopylov.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Murzakanov vs. Costa Betting Odds
- Azamat Murzakanov victory: -194
- Azamat Murzakanov via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Azamat Murzakanov via submission: TBD
- Azamat Murzakanov via decision: TBD
- Paulo Costa victory: +150
- Paulo Costa via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Paulo Costa via submission: TBD
- Paulo Costa via decision: TBD
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Murzakanov Wins
Azamat Murzakanov doesn’t do anything fancy. He’s not spinning into wheel kicks or showing a complex wrestling game. Instead, “The Professional” relies almost exclusively on his boxing, which makes sense given he’s a “Master of Sport” in Russian hand-to-hand combat.
12 of his victories come via knockout.
A lot of Murzakanov’s wins have shared a similar dynamic, as the boxer tries to work his way into the range of a taller, longer opponent. Against the (giant) former Middleweight, however, the heights and reaches will be fairly similar, and Costa is not some rangy point fighter. Murzakanov will likely find the pocket fairly often, which should allow him to build combinations.
Likely his biggest adjustment here will be to the right leg of Paulo Costa, as the Brazilian is really excellent at kicking into the open side. Murzakanov has to be ready to block and fire back, as just a few of those connections could really sap his energy and remove the steam off his own punches.
How Costa Wins
Costa tried to reinvent himself after the “Stylebender” loss to disastrous results. He’s built to be a tank, not a slick distance fighter. Fortunately, he seems to have learned that lesson after rather boring Sean Strickland defeat, which saw Costa try to run around and jab for five rounds. When he’s on his game, Costa is aggressive, attacking in combination, and slamming home kicks.
I know this is not my “X-Factor” column, but the X-Factor here is that Costa fights tremendously well against Southpaws. He’s much better when able to line up that ripping right kick (see above), a tool I expect him to rely on heavily against the slightly shorter boxer. If he can hide his outside angle behind a jab or two, Costa should be blasting the mid-section and upper body of Murzakanov with his right leg, which will help keep Murzakanov’s powerful left hand at home.
This is a fight where Costa does not want to engage in the perfect boxing range. He either wants to be at long distance, showing off his speed and kicks, or a half-step closer than the pocket. In more of a forehead-to-forehead range, Costa should be able to hit the body well without as much of a risk of getting beamed with a combination.
Murzakanov vs. Costa Prediction
I’d like to confess that I am guilty of both underrating Murzakanov and overrating Costa historically. Murzakanov is running roughshod over a weak division filled with guys who cannot box, and I continue to feel like he’s going to find his ceiling before he actually breaks into the title mix. Costa, conversely, gives me just enough hope to continue believing in him despite disappointing so often in recent years.
Why not get hurt again? Costa is really good at fighting Southpaws. He’s much better against lefties, and I have to assume he’ll be able to push one hell of a pace and take a serious shot without having to cut 30 pounds. Middleweights jumping up to 205 pounds historically do rather well, and I’m willing to gamble that Costa makes a splash in his new class by returning to his marauding ways.
If Costa opts to run around and jab instead … just know I’ll be screaming at TV in unadulterated rage.
