Purdue entered the weekend right on the border of the NCAA Tournament and had a chance to claim a spot with a successful weekend against Iowa.
Things did not go according to plan.
The pitching staff was shelled by the Hawkeyes as Iowa swept Purdue 10-7, 14-5, and 15-9. Purdue’s RPI slid from 47 to 54, likely knocking them from the NCAA Tournament field barring a big run in this coming week’s Big Ten Tournament. What’s more frustrating is that this was closer than it looks. Purdue led game 1 6-1 before
falling apart and giving up five runs in the 5th inning. They led game two 5-2 before the Hawkeyes woke up int he sixth and scored four. They would close the game scoring 12 unanswered runs in the final four innings. On Saturday Purdue led 1-0 after half an inning, but fell behind 6-1 through two and never recovered.
Iowa batted a brutal .437 for the weekend and hit seven home runs. Purdue’s offense was up to the task like normal, but leaving 14 on base on Friday and 12 on Sunday didn’t help matters.
There is still a chance to reach the NCAA Tournament, but that requires a strong run through the Big Ten Tournament, which begins Tuesday in Omaha.
Purdue earned the 5 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, which somes with positives and negatives. First, the Boilers need wins now, and it will be required to win two games in order to reach the single elimination quarterfinals beginning on Friday. The Boilermakers will open the tournament Tuesday morning in Omaha at 10am ET, 9am local against Michigan State. This is regular season rematch, as the Boilers went to East Lansing in late March and dropped game one 4-3, but won games two and three 16-13 and 11-4, respectively.
Should Purdue wint hey would take on the winniner between Iowa and Illinois on Wednesday at 5pm ET. A loss sends them to an elimination game at 10am ET Wednesday against the Iowa-Illinois loser. Purdue, of course, was just swept by Iowa, but it took two of three from Illinois (6-1, 5-7, 10-5) at Alexander Field the week after beating Michigan State.
Two of the four teams from this pod will advance to the quarterfinals, and it will be the two that win two games each. Two straight wins comes with the luxury of having Thursday off with a spot secure in the quarters with a game agaisnt USC on Friday at 10am ET. A loss either Tuesday or Wednesday means a winner-take-all game between the game 7 loser and game 5 winner.
The other takeaway from that is the survivor gets a date with the No. 1 team in the country: UCLA. The Bruins have been utterly dominant this year, going 48-6 in the regular season and an impressive 28-2 in Big Ten play. The quarterfinals also are single elimnation, so Purdue would likely get UCLA in the semifinals if it comes through the winner’s bracket.
Headed into the tournament I’d say Purdue’s chances are poor for a tourney bid, but not impossible. Michigan State’s RPI of 115 won’t add a lot on a neutral field. Illinois (86) and Iowa (62) would help a little more, but the real value would come from beating USC (RPI 8) and UCLA (RPI 1) on consecutive. Should the Boilers reach Sunday’s final it would mean four wins, and likely two against top 10 teams. That might be enough to sneak into the field depending on what happens elsewhere, but if you make the final you might as well win it and take hte automatic bid.
None of that happens without better pitching though. USC’s Mason Edwards is their ace at 8-0 and one of the best pitching prospects in the country. Purdue did get to him in Los Angeles a few weeks ago in a 4-3 loss, but could not make a 3-2 lead hold up. UCLA is, of course, UCLA.
I would rate the chances as slim, but not impossible. I think the Boilers can some out of their little four team pod, but you’re asking them to win at least four games in five days, probably two against top 10 teams, just to have a chance.
At least we get some breakfast baseball on Tuesday now. All games are on BTN as well.
