With the pay-per-view (PPV) model going away in favor of a flat-fee subscription service, courtesy of the billion-dollar Paramount+ deal inked just a few weeks back, the promotion will close
the PPV show with UFC 323: “Merab vs. Yan 2” on Sat. night (Dec. 6) from inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. As the name would suggest, UFC 323 will be headlined by the bantamweight do-over pitting reigning champion Merab Dvalishvili opposite former titleholder Petr Yan, a rematch from their UFC Las Vegas headliner that ended in favor of “The Machine.”
In the UFC 323 co-main event, reigning 125-pound champion Alexandre Pantoja collides with No. 1-ranked flyweight contender Joshua Van. The winner could move on to defend against the winner of Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira, who also throw hands in the flyweight division. Elsewhere on the card, Henry Cejudo looks to quell the uprising of Payton Talbott, not long after Jan Błachowicz and Bogdan Guskov slug it out at 205 pounds.
Who wins and who loses? Let’s try to figure that out below.
135 lbs.: UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili (21-4) vs. Petr “No Mercy” Yan (19-5)
Merab Dvalishvili has quickly established himself as the most dominant fighter at 135 pounds and would probably be the most celebrated champion in the sport were it not for the accomplishments of two-division champion Islam Makhachev. Dvalishvili is the only fighter in UFC history to land more than 100 takedowns and his UFC 320 performance against Cory Sandhagen landed “The Machine” at No. 4 on the promotion’s list of consecutive win streaks. A victory this weekend in “Sin City” will tie him with former welterweight kingpin Kamaru Usman at 15 and also leave Dvalishvili as the only UFC fighter to ever record four successful title defenses in a single calendar year. Offensively, the Georgian is a serviceable striker with basic footwork but his unbelievable gas tank and powerful wrestling attack makes it nearly impossible to maintain any sort of distance — a death sentence for opponents who rely on time and space to get out of first gear.
It also helps that Dvalishvili has a granite chin.
“I’m looking to finish him, but it’s going to be tough because nobody has ever finished him,” Dvalishvili said at the UFC 323 media day. “But I want to win against him, just another win, and of course it’s going to be a record with four won fights this year, and it’s another win in the UFC. Every win is important for me, important for my team and my country. I want to show a good fight for the UFC fans. In the last fight between me and Petr, it was good, but I want to do an even better fight and keep improving. I keep improving every time.”
It wasn’t that long ago when Petr Yan was being heralded as the future of the bantamweight division after capturing the crown in summer 2020. If we’re being honest about his ascension, he didn’t face a tremendous amount of resistance along the way. All seven of his UFC wins before losing the title at UFC 259 came over fighters who are no longer with the promotion, like Jimmie Rivera and Jin Soo Son. To be fair, Dvalishvili also crushed a few cans in his early years but turned up the heat when it mattered, whereas Yan was unable to get past the likes of Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley. “No Mercy” appears to have found his rhythm again and is currently enjoying a three-fight win streak. He’s got better striking than the champion but worse wrestling, which is why he was completely dismantled in their first go-round at UFC Las Vegas in early 2023. Yan subsequently complained that he wasn’t fully healthy and all kinds of stuff was going down behind the scenes — the same tired crap we always hear from losing fighters.
Dvalishvili uncorked a staggering 49 takedown attempts during that five-round headliner, landing 11.
“Obviously, we have a lot of information that we’ve downloaded about each other,” Yan said at the UFC 323 media day. “We know each other better. But if you look at my first two rematches with (Magomed) Magomedov and (Aljamain) Sterling, you could see that I’m 100 percent better in the second fight. So I’m determined to make sure I’m much better in this second fight against Merab. On paper, he’s one of the greatest. But for me, that’s also motivation, something that shows me I need to push myself further and show what I can do. I think Merab deserves any rematch that he wants, whether he calls it out or the UFC calls it out. I think he deserves a rematch. If I do win, I think that it would be a really cool trilogy to put that third fight together.”
Dvalishvili is clearly in his prime and virtually unstoppable. But unstoppable is not the same as invincible. “The Machine” could get unplugged by a guillotine on a takedown attempt, or get slept by a nasty knee — also during a takedown attempt. There’s also the chance that Yan could slow down the wrestling (he’ll never completely stop it) and strike for points, as opposed to knockouts, doing enough to sway the cageside judges.
Possible? Yes. Plausible? Eh, probably not.
Dvalishvili would need to have an off night, coupled with Yan turning in the performance of a lifetime. I wouldn’t mind seeing it, just because the division is starting to get a little stale, but it’s hard to pick against the best bantamweight in the world, particularly when he’s firing on all cylinders.
Prediction: Dvalishvili def. Yan by unanimous decision
125 lbs.: UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja (30-5) vs. “Fearless” Joshua Van (15-2)
UFC fans love shiny new toys and they don’t get any shinier or newer than Joshua Van, who takes over for the once-beaten Tatsuro Taira as the division’s next big thing. The 24 year-old flyweight wasn’t even ranked at this time last year, thanks to a knockout loss to Charles Johnson at UFC Denver, but a five-fight win streak — with three of those victories coming in 2025 — helped propel “Fearless” to the No. 1 spot at 125 pounds. That said, his only victory over an opponent currently ranked in the Top 10 came over Brandon Royval at UFC 317, so Van’s ranking feels a little shaky to me without having to fight some of the 125-pound mainstays like Brandon Moreno and Manel Kape, or even Amir Albazi. Nevertheless, it’s nice to see a fresh face at the top of the division mountain and let’s face it, Alexandre Pantoja isn’t getting any younger at age 35 — and there are a lot of miles on those Brazilian tires after 35 professional fights.
“It’s perfect timing,” Van told CBS Sports. “I’m just well prepared. I’m very, very excited for this fight, bringing in the new era of fighters. Pantoja has done what he has done but now I feel like it’s time for the new fighters. It will be amazing because not a lot of people know Myanmar. Now, when I raise that belt, the world will see what Myanmar is and the world will know. I can’t wait to have my country in front of millions of people. [Pantoja] is definitely going to try and take me down, everybody knows that, but I’m just ready for whatever. If he wants to strike, we can strike. Whatever he brings to the table, I’ll be ready. You can throw out the gameplan, I’m going to fight Joshua Van style.”
Pantoja made his Octagon debut back in early 2017 and didn’t seem to have much of a future in the flyweight title chase after dropping two of three during his 2019-20 fight campaign. Those losses came against Deiveson Figueiredo and Askar Askarov; who at the time, were two of the biggest names at 125 pounds. Pantoja rebounded with a decision win over Manel Kape and it was off to the races from there, to the tune of eight straight wins with four submission finishes. In fact, “The Cannibal” has 12 submissions in 30 wins along with eight knockouts and stands as one of the most prolific finishers in his weight class. Pantoja appeared to mail it in against the under-qualified Steve Erceg but returned to form with dominant submission victories over former RIZIN bantamweight champion Kai Asakura and one-time flyweight title challenger Kai Kara-France. The Brazilian has never been finished in 35 professional fights and offensively, leads with a powerful wrestling attack that averages nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes of action.
“I want to be (No. 1) pound-for-pound, I want to be the best fighter in the world,” Pantoja said at the UFC 323 media day. “It’s very tough that I conquer that because we have a lot of good champions right now. You have (Islam) Makhachev, Merab (Dvalishvili), (Ilia) Topuria, (Khamzat) Chimaev, (Alex) Pereira, (Alexander) Volkanovski – so many great guys. I think that’s the best time to be a UFC fan, but at the same time, it’s very hard for fighters to get the No. 1 position. I feel very happy to be part of that club, the best fighters in the world, and what I want Saturday night is to prove that I’m the best one. That’s what I try to follow. That’s one of my goals.”
Van is coming off a “Fight of the Night” performance against Brandon Royval and Pantoja has six post-fight performance bonuses of his own, so there’s no way in hell this turns out to be a boring affair. Both combatants will be fighting out of the orthodox stance with Van giving up two inches in reach. If you’re hoping for the upset (Van is a +195 underdog) you should know that “Fearless” has been taken down 10 times in his short UFC career and will probably get taken down at UFC 323, as well. What he’s able to do when it happens will be the determining factor in this fight, but based on what Pantoja has accomplished thus far against the best flyweights in the world, I don’t like Van’s chances.
Prediction: Pantoja def. Van by submission
125 lbs.: Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno (23-8-2) vs. Tatsuro Taira (17-1)
Brandon Moreno is one of those fighters who would probably be a main event attraction making millions if he wasn’t a flyweight, widely-recognized as the least-cared about division in MMA (even among other fighters). Moreno previously held the 125-pound title and has turned in some absolute wars over the years, racking up seven post-fight performance bonuses along the way with four “Fight of the Night” honors. “The Assassin Baby” dropped the title in a split decision loss to Alexandre Pantoja, then fell by a second split to Brandon Royval in his follow-up fight, so even though Moreno has eight losses they’ve all come by way of decision — and some of them could have easily flipped in his favor. Currently, the 31 year-old Mexican is coming off consecutive wins over Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg to hold on to the No. 2 ranking at 125 pounds and a victory at UFC 323 could have him right back in the title conversation — particularly with an upset win for Joshua Van.
“He’s hungry, he’s ready to rock, he wants to be a champion,” Moreno told UFC.com about Taira. “I think that makes everything more exciting. He’s a tough opponent. I think he’s the new era of mixed martial arts fighters: super young, but super complete, super tough. I think that his main goal is the grappling, but he’s not afraid to throw and exchange with his opponents. I saw it with Royval. In some points he had to respond in some different ways, sometimes with grappling, sometimes with striking, and he did it well. So my main goal for this fight is just to be focused every single time, because I know his goal is gonna be to take me to the ground and take my back. But I know he’s still very dangerous with the hands, so I just (have to) focus every single time in the fight.”
Tatsuro Taira was being positioned as heir to the throne and for good reason. The Japanese import jumped out to a 6-0 start for UFC with four finishes and landed at No. 5 in the official flyweight rankings. Then came division spoiler Brandon Royval, who made a career out of mucking things up for championship hopefuls. To his credit, Taira was able to rebound with a second-round submission win over South Korean superstar Hyun Sung Park back in August and it’s not unreasonable to think Taira — still just 25 years old — has yet to reach his competitive prime. Like Moreno, the well-rounded Taira has racked up multiple post-fight performance bonuses and judging by his Park win, the Royval misstep was a minor setback and not a sign of things to come. Both Taira and Moreno stand 5’7” and sport a 70” reach but Taira has been the more effective wrestler over the last few years — though he’s also been facing much weaker competition. That’s probably why I’m leaning toward Moreno for this weekend’s slugfest, which will undoubtedly be a “Fight of the Night” contender.
“After the last fight, I wanted a top-ranked opponent, and hearing the name Brandon Moreno was the perfect opponent that I wanted,” Taira said at the UFC 323 media day. “I think it would be the perfect match to determine the next title contender. Looking at Kyoji’s fight [against Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC Qatar], I think he showed a great performance. Obviously, that’s something we have to show this Saturday as well, make sure I finish Moreno — which he has never been finished — so give him his first finish. That’s what I have to show.”
Outside of the champion, nobody has a resume like Moreno in the flyweight division and he’s gone toe-to-toe with the best in the world. I think the difference in experience will become evident as the fight drags on, assuming Moreno doesn’t abandon his gameplan in favor of a crowd-pleasing bar fight.
Prediction: Moreno def. Taira by decision
135 lbs.: Henry “Triple C” Cejudo (16-5) vs. Payton Talbott (10-1)
Henry Cejudo probably should have stayed retired after hanging up the gloves in 2020, which came after a knockout win over Dominick Cruz in May 2020. “Triple C” had won six in a row and captured two titles and would have likely been revered as one of the best to ever compete in the lighter weight classes. Instead, he’s being positioned as a stepping stone for a talented young up-and-comer while trying to rebound from a decision loss to … Yadong Song. No disrespect to the “Kung Fu Kid” but that’s a fight Cejudo should have won so the question becomes, is this a matter of age or motivation? Cejudo won an Olympic gold medal in freestyle wrestling but was still outwrestled in back-to-back losses to Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili, then went 0-3 in takedowns against Song. I’m not sure what he plans to do differently against Payton Talbott but it’s clear his usual bag of tricks is no longer working and Cejudo hasn’t seen the win column in over five years. To make matters worse, he’s giving up six inches in both height and reach for his UFC 323 return, undoubtedly his last UFC fight (win or lose).
“I think the diehard [fans] that really do know everything, like understand my position,” Cejudo said at the UFC 323 media day. “But at the same time, there’s so much to this decision of why this is the last, and this is just a lot. I can’t serve two masters, you know. If I can’t be the best in the world, then why do it? I know what I’m up against. Real recognizes real. I saw talent in that dude. But also, there’s that competitive spirit in me that’s like all right man, give me the biggest challenge, give me the toughest challenge. Gimme whoever the hell you want. Like, I love to compete, especially for my last one, I’m throwing out the kitchen sink.“
Payton Talbott tore through the amateur ranks as part of the “Future Legends” series with King of the Cage (KOTC) then made a name for himself with Urijah Faber’s A1 Combat brand in Sacramento. Talbott used that exposure to land a spot on Dana White’s “Contender Series” in summer 2023 and scored a UFC contract by defeating Reyes Cortez Jr. by decision. Starstruck fans (and some members of the media) were ready to crown Talbott the bantamweight champion after three straight finishes over a trio of warm bodies — two of whom are no longer with UFC. Then it all came crashing down when Talbott dropped an uninspired decision to Brazilian veteran Raoni Barcelos. Talbott managed to rebound with a decision victory over Felipe Lima at UFC 317, though I think a finish in the “Jungle Boy” fight would have been a lot more convincing in terms of his chances against Cejudo. Regardless, Talbott is a -250 betting favorite for tomorrow night’s affair, which I think has more to do with the fall of Cejudo (+210) than it does with the rise of Talbott, who is 11 years younger than “Triple C” at 27.
“Why do you think this fight got booked? We went down the line and got a lot of nos, but Henry said yes,” Talbott said at the UFC 323 media day. “It’s really nice to know it’s his last fight and he’s going to come in there with everything he has. That’s amazing for me. If my opponent is doing better and looks better, I’m going to rise to the occasion, as well. I don’t see [Cejudo and Barcelos] as super similar opponents — a lot of people are saying it’s the same matchup, but it’s really not. But I do see it as a big opportunity for redemption.”
Cejudo is past his prime and undersized for a bantamweight. He’s also not fighting old, shopworn veterans like Dominick Cruz and Marlon Moraes. Talbott still has a long way to go in order to establish himself as a legit contender at 135 pounds, but I think he’s getting this Cejudo fight at the perfect time in his career — and the absolute worst time in Cejudo’s career.
Prediction: Talbott def. Cejudo by technical knockout
205 lbs.: Jan Błachowicz (29-11-1) vs. Bogdan Guskov (18-3)
Jan Błachowicz missed all of 2024 with a shoulder injury that required surgery and upon his return at UFC London back in March, had to face off against No. 3-ranked light heavyweight contender Carlos Ulberg. That’s a pretty tall order for any combatant, let alone one who was sidelined for nearly two years. Unfortunately for Blachowicz, these are the kinds of matchups you draw as a former light heavyweight champion and the rough-and-tumble Pole held his own against “Black Jag,” but ultimately came up short on the judges’ scorecards. That leaves Blachowicz at 1-3-1 over the last four years and despite all that talk about “Polish Power,” the former KSW titleholder has not finished an opponent since his destruction of Dominick Reyes back in late 2020. He also turns 43 in February and sports double-digit losses, so it’s not outrageous to suggest his best days are behind him. Offensively, Blachowicz is solid everywhere and has good cardio. The one glaring negative, at least from a fan’s perspective, is that he can sometimes get dragged into lackluster fights and has now gone to three straight decisions.
“This is the past,” Blachowicz said at the UFC 323 media day. “I’m happy. Everything is good now. Now, I cannot leave the decision for the [judges]. I need to finish the fights before time. This is what I’m going to do. I started checking him when they offered him to me. I don’t watch his fights before that, but now I know almost everything about him. Very powerful guy. Young blood with good striking skills, so I have to be focused all the time with my hands up. But I like this style. I think his style and my style is going to be a good fight to watch. That’s why I like this fight also.”
Bogdan Guskov made his Octagon debut in late 2023 and has remained busy over the last two years, racking up a 4-1 record with all four victories coming by way of knockout or submission. His only blemish during that span was a debut loss to Volkan Oezdemir, who surprised the Uzbek with a first-round rear-naked choke. Since then, Guskov has looked unstoppable and has yet to see a third round in his UFC career, which accounts for his recent “Performance of the Night” bonuses against Zac Pauga and Ryan Spann. Guskov is a well-rounded fighter with a sneaky submission game, but most fans haven’t seen it because “Czarevitch” is too busy putting opponents to sleep. 15 of his 18 victories have closed by way of knockout with the other three ending by way of submission, though Blachowicz has a way of taking dangerous strikers (see Pereira, Alex) and shutting down their attack. Guskov is no spring chicken at 33 but he’s clearly younger and fresher than his fight night foe and more importantly, is bringing the momentum of a four-fight winning streak into tomorrow night’s affair.
“I thought about having someone with a name to fight, but I was surprised it was Jan specifically,” Guskov said at the UFC 323 media day. “I thought it would maybe be top seven, eight, but not Blachowicz. So thank you very much (to the UFC), and I’ll do my diligence with this opportunity. What I can say about his legendary ‘Polish power’ is that what I’ll have to do is counter it with my Russian or Uzbek IQ or speed, and we’ll see how the fight goes.”
Błachowicz has proven to be a tough out at 205 pounds and has a tendency to frustrate great fighters. That said, he’s also on the decline and is a lesser version of himself after double shoulder surgery. I don’t want to oversell Guskov because the only time he fought a light heavyweight currently ranked in the Top 10, he got tapped out. I think a prime Blachowicz coasts to a decision against Guskov; but then again, a prime Blachowicz got torched by Thiago Santos, so maybe not. My heart wants the former champ, but my brain knows it’s bad form to pick an aging, inconsistent veteran who hasn’t registered a meaningful win in four years — while being held together by popsicle sticks and duct tape.
Prediction: Guskov def. Błachowicz by knockout
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