Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, October 30 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Alamodome — San Antonio, TX
- Spread: Tulane (-3.5)
- Over/under: 55.5
- All-time series: Series tied, 1-1
- Last meeting: Tulane 29, UTSA 16 — November 24, 2023
- Current streak: Tulane, 1 (2023)
Setting the scene
The UTSA Roadrunners have never lost a home conference game under head coach Jeff Traylor. UTSA is 21-0 in the confines of the Alamodome against league peers in the 2020s and 23-0 if you count its 2021
and 2022 Conference USA Championship Games played in the venue.
Defending that perfect record won’t be easy. Tulane travels one state westward for a Thursday night showdown, and the Green Wave are similarly excellent in conference play. They’ve won 25 of 27 regular season conference matchups, but this is their first trip to the Alamodome since sharing the American Conference with the Roadrunners.
Tulane eyes a ranking and another piece of the puzzle to qualify for a fourth-straight American title game while UTSA vies for a signature win to turn around its season.
Tulane Green Wave outlook
Tulane (6-1, 3-0 American) is one of two teams sporting an undefeated American record, along with Navy. The Green Wave control their own destiny for a fourth-straight conference championship appearance, but they’ve required some late-game heroics in their last two victories. Tulane trailed both East Carolina and Army in the fourth quarter and broke ties with under 40 seconds remaining in each game.
The Green Wave’s resiliency was on full display in each of those last two wins, showing vast improvement in close games after allowing late rallies to South Alabama and Duke in September. However, third quarters have been a struggle for Tulane all year, producing a negative third quarter point differential and generating just 27 points in seven contests — never eclipsing more than seven.
Tulane seeks an uptick offensively, averaging 9.2 points per game fewer than last year. Almost everything the Green Wave do runs through quarterback Jake Retzlaff who has 1,428 passing yards, six touchdowns, and one interception while ranking atop the team in rushing. At the beginning of the season, the Green Wave inflicted most of its damage through Retzlaff’s mobility with his top three rushing performances coming in Weeks 1-3. Recently, the BYU transfer is displaying his capability of a passer, firing for 347 against East Carolina and 261 against Army with completion rates exceeding 72 percent in each crunch time victory.
Retzlaff distributes the ball in a balanced manner to his top three targets — Bryce Bohanon, Omari Hayes, and Shazz Preston. The three wield between 20-23 receptions this year for 256-314 yards. No Tulane receiver has attained 100 yards this year and the top option often rotates, with Preston stepping into the spotlight last time out vs. Army.
The running back room can be described in similar fashion. Javin Gordon is somewhat emerging as the lead back, but Tulane still mixes in Maurice Turner, Arnold Barnes III, and Zuberi Mobley with a committee approach. Gordon leads the way with 309 rushing yards, but all together including Retzlaff, the Green Wave rank 44th nationally in ground production at 181 yards per game.
Tulane’s defense is surging as of late, holding three-straight opponents below 20 points. During this three-game win streak, the Green Wave have countered the run at an elite level, limiting Tulsa, East Carolina, and even Army below 3.8 yards per carry. The backfield pressure starts with the defensive line where ends Santana Hopper and Harvey Dyson III combine for 12.5 tackles for loss. However, the defensive front is still recovering from a signature injury to outside linebacker Dickson Agu who is lost for the season.
The only two players with more tackles than Agu are safeties Jack Tchienchou and Bailey Despanie who combine for 86, along with five pass breakups. What the Green Wave have been lacking on the back end lately are havoc plays. Tulane intercepted Northwestern four times in Week 1, and since, the Green Wave corralled just two interceptions and zero during the month of October. Turnover production was the signature of the 2024 defense, but it’s been severely lacking lately, and Tulane will look toward Javion White (3 interceptions in 2025) and inside linebacker Sam Howard (1 interception, 5 fumble recoveries in 2024) to invest in the cause.
And should this game come down to the wire, Tulane features an ultra-reliable kicker. Patrick Durkin is 14-of-14 on field goals this year with a long of 50, hoping to extend his streak of perfection on the Alamodome turf.
UTSA Roadrunners outlook
UTSA (3-4, 1-2 American) hopes its second bye week can propel a midseason turnaround. The Roadrunners started 3-5 last year but created significant momentum down the stretch to finish 7-6 for the fifth perfect season in the first five years of the Jeff Traylor era.
One of the secret sauces to that turnaround involved playing three-straight games at home, and there’s a special magic to UTSA in the Alamodome. The Roadrunners are 21-0 in the venue in conference games under Traylor and wield a 12-1 record in the venue across their last 13 games. Last time UTSA arrived at its beloved indoor facility, it gashed Rice in 61-13 fashion, setting a program record for points and scoring multiple times with its defense. Everything clicked, but the following week in Denton, TX, the complete opposite transpired in a 55-17 thrashing.
There are two different UTSAs. The Alamodome iteration averages 48.3 points per game, while the version away from home tallies 19.8. This isn’t a new trend either. UTSA finished 6-0 at home in the regular season last year and 0-6 on the road. But Tulane will be the toughest competition to enter the building since the dawn of the 2023 season.
UTSA eyes a bounce-back performance from starting quarterback Owen McCown. McCown excelled in a breakout 2024 as a top 15 FBS finisher in passing yards. This year, he has yet to throw for 250, but part of that is the redesign of the UTSA offense, leaning more heavily on the run. McCown is connecting at a 63.4 percent clip and manages a sharp touchdown-to-interception ratio of 13-to-4, playing smart football and avoiding sacks at a much better rate than last year.
The focal point of the Roadrunners’ offense is Robert Henry Jr., who ranks third in the FBS with 868 rushing yards. His 8.3 average reigns supreme over all 20 players with at least 700 rushing yards this season, and Henry is the ultimate breakaway threat. He has five total touchdowns spanning over 70 yards, and he’s broken free for a 70-yard run in five of seven games — making every play essentially a red zone opportunity when Henry’s in the game. It’s the ultimate combination of patience, vision, speed, and power which make him the most dangerous tailback in the American.
Henry is receiving assistance offensively from a wide receiver corps that continues to improve in health. Devin McCuin is the top target of the bunch with 35 receptions, while AJ Wilson, David Amador II, and tight end Houston Thomas are among the other frequented threats.
Where UTSA needs to improve most is its 113th-ranked scoring defense. The Roadrunners allowed 584 yards and 55 points last game against North Texas, and this is becoming a trend, especially in second halves. UTSA is 1-5 in six games against FBS competition in second halves this year, allowing an average of 19.3 points per game after the break — only surrendering 13.3 points per game in first halves.
What the Roadrunners need more than anything is turnover production. They average exactly one takeaway per game, and if you remove the FCS game vs. Incarnate Word, they have three takeaways through six FBS matchups. Most of the turnovers can be attributed to star inside linebacker Shad Banks Jr. The former TCU starter is in the midst of a likely all-conference season, leading the team with 47 tackles, two interceptions, and two fumble recoveries. Kendrick Blackshire (33 tackles, 1 interception) and Nnanna Anyanwu (5.0 sacks, 7.0 TFLs) are other names leading a formidable linebacking corps. But everything needs to come together, as a passing defense ranked 110th aims to yield fewer explosive plays Thursday night.
Prediction
Tulane has been involved in different style games this year, playing a few on the higher-scoring end in September against South Alabama and Duke while emerging in closer, lower-scoring contests in October. This one likely features a decent amount of points considering UTSA’s scoring tendencies in the Alamodome and the difficulty of limiting Robert Henry Jr. The Roadrunners will set the tone for a track meet style game, and Jake Retzlaff and the Green Wave will match it — executing similarly to Texas State with dual-threat quarterback Brad Jackson back in Week 2.
There will be pushback from the Roadrunner offense, but Tulane prevents falling victim to this Thursday night trap game. Retzlaff enjoys another successful day through the air vs. a struggling UTSA passing defense, keeping the Green Wave perfect in American play.
Prediction: Tulane 38, UTSA 28
