The wait is almost over.
The entire Missouri volleyball roster has officially reported to Hearnes Center this week, preseason practices are underway, and the Tigers are now just one week away from the annual Black & Gold Scrimmage on Aug. 8. Twenty-eight days remain until Missouri opens the regular season, but the excitement surrounding Dawn Sullivan’s fourth season in Columbia has already started to build.
There are still questions to answer. The starting lineup is far from finalized, and several
position battles remain unresolved. Those answers will begin to reveal themselves during preseason camp, the Black & Gold Scrimmage and the Aug. 15 exhibition against Drake.
Until then, all we can do is infer.
This week on The Fifth Set, it’s time to look ahead at Missouri’s 2026 schedule, break down every stretch of the season and sort each matchup into four categories: Locks, Most Likely Wins, Competitive Games and Battles.
August starts with confidence
Missouri opens the season by hosting the Mizzou Invitational against Western Illinois, Towson and Idaho.
These are locks.
The Tigers are simply the more talented roster in all three matches. Missouri’s athleticism at the net, size in the middle and overall depth should overwhelm each opponent as Sullivan’s team settles into the new season.
A 3-0 start would be exactly what this group needs before the schedule immediately becomes much tougher.
The first measuring stick
Next comes one of the most fascinating stretches of Missouri’s season.
It begins when former Tiger setter Marina Crownover returns to Hearnes Center wearing an Oregon uniform after transferring during the offseason.
Emotion alone makes this matchup intriguing.
Among the next three opponents, Oregon feels like the most winnable game despite the storyline. Missouri should have the home crowd behind it, and early-season chemistry could be the deciding factor.
Then comes Nebraska at Wrigley Field.
That is where I believe Missouri suffers its first loss of the season.
Few programs have matched Nebraska’s consistency over the last decade, and playing one of the nation’s elite teams on one of volleyball’s biggest regular-season stages presents a difficult challenge.
If Nebraska wasn’t enough, Louisville waits immediately afterward.
It almost feels inevitable at this point.
Louisville has become Dawn Sullivan’s annual measuring stick dating back to her previous coaching stops, and despite Missouri continuing to close the gap nationally, I think the Cardinals once again come away with the victory.
A chance to regroup
Following that demanding stretch, Missouri returns home for the Mizzou Tournament.
Arkansas State opens the weekend and lands squarely in my Competitive Game category.
The Red Wolves finished 22-9 last season, return standout outside hitter Kaitlin Whitlock and bring back head coach Brian Gerwig. They are one of the better mid-major teams Missouri will face all season.
Still, I like the Tigers.
Coming off three nationally relevant matchups should sharpen Missouri, and the Tigers’ size, speed and athleticism should eventually wear Arkansas State down.
Wichita State falls into my Most Likely Win category. The Shockers are capable of making things uncomfortable, but Missouri should have enough firepower.
Florida Gulf Coast rounds out the weekend as another Lock.
Building momentum
The Bowling Green / Toledo Invitational provides an opportunity to stack victories before SEC play begins.
Dayton.
Toledo.
Bowling Green.
All three land in the Most Likely Win category.
None should be overlooked, but Missouri has the talent advantage in each contest and should leave the tournament with valuable momentum.
SEC play opens favorably
Conference play begins exactly how Missouri would have drawn it up.
A home opener against Vanderbilt is a Lock.
The Commodores are still building their relatively young volleyball program, and Hearnes Center should provide Missouri with an ideal SEC opener.
The Tigers then travel to Ole Miss and LSU.
Both fall into Most Likely Wins.
Yes, Ole Miss stunned Missouri in last season’s SEC Tournament after being swept 3-0 by the Tigers during the regular season.
I think the Tigers exercise those demons.
That tournament loss should still be fresh in Missouri’s mind, making this an opportunity to earn some revenge before returning home.
The matchup against the Bayou Bengals should be a strong performance as well, to round out the first three SEC games of the season.
The schedule softens — briefly
Missouri then enjoys four consecutive home matches.
Florida headlines the stretch and lands in the Competitive Game category.
The Gators aren’t quite the national powerhouse they once were, but Ryan Theis continues building the program on his second season at the helm, and Florida’s ability to recruit elite athletes means they’re never an easy out.
The following three matches — Auburn, Mississippi State and Alabama — are all Locks in my eyes.
This feels like the stretch where Missouri begins to find its rhythm.
Those three wins could create valuable momentum heading into the most important portion of the season.
Road trips to South Carolina and Georgia follow.
Both are Most Likely Wins.
Winning on the road in the SEC is never automatic, but Missouri should be the better team in both matches.
If everything goes according to plan, the Tigers could enter late October riding a five or six match winning streak.
Where the season will be decided
Then comes the gantlet.
It starts at Kentucky.
This matchup has quietly become one of the best annual contests on Missouri’s schedule.
Maybe it isn’t officially a rivalry.
Maybe it never will be.
But every year it feels like one of the conference’s marquee matches, and I expect another thriller.
I think Kentucky narrowly hands Missouri a loss.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, things don’t get easier.
Tennessee visits Hearnes Center before Missouri faces Texas and defending national champion Texas A&M.
Every one of those matches belongs in the Battle category.
This four-match stretch will define Missouri’s season.
It could determine NCAA Tournament seeding.
It could determine where the Tigers finish in the SEC standings.
It could determine whether Missouri enters November with momentum or searching for answers.
I expect Missouri to go either 1-3 or 0-4 over those four matches simply because of the caliber of competition.
There simply isn’t a tougher stretch anywhere on the schedule.
Finishing strong
The regular season closes with road matches at Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Both fall into the Competitive Game category.
Road matches late in the season are rarely easy, especially with postseason positioning on the line, but Missouri has enough talent to compete with both teams and should have opportunities to finish the regular season on a high note before the SEC Tournament begins.
Final prediction
If everything breaks right, I believe Missouri finishes the regular season somewhere around 20-7 overall and 10-5 in SEC play, firmly placing itself back in NCAA Tournament contention.
The biggest question isn’t whether Missouri has enough talent.
I believe it does.
The real question is how quickly this new-look roster develops chemistry, settles the remaining lineup battles and grows together before conference play begins.
We’ll start getting those answers next week when the Tigers take the floor for the annual Black & Gold Scrimmage.
Until then, optimism is building around Hearnes Center, and for good reason.
The pieces appear to be there.
Now it’s time to see how they fit together.
First Serve returns Monday with another look inside Missouri volleyball, while The Fifth Set is back Friday to break down everything we learn from the Black & Gold Scrimmage as the countdown to opening day continues.
