Five years of the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup has produced five different champions: the Seattle Storm, Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty, Minnesota Lynx and Indiana Fever.
As the sixth edition of the WNBA’s in-season competition begins, which of those former champs has the best chance of becoming the first franchise to raise a second Cup banner?
Should it be the team that, surprisingly, sits at the top of the regular-season standings? Can the Lynx become the first two-time Cup champs?
Their quest begins on Monday night against the Phoenix Mercury (10 p.m. ET, NBCSN/Peacock).
In addition to their unexpected early-season success, achieved without Napheesa Collier and Dorka Juhàsz, along with a number of other faces who helped Minnesota win the Cup in 2024 before departing in free agency this offseason, there are a couple of factors that go beyond the court that inspire confidence in the Lynx’s ability to conjure up a competitive run of Cup play, return to the Cup final for a third-straight time and take the Cup trophy again.
It seems appropriate the Minnesota opens Cup play in Phoenix, the location where their 2025 season ended in disappointing, dramatic fashion.
After losing a Game 3 in which head coach Cheryl Reeve was ejected and Napheesa Collier was injured, the thought-to-be title favorites where eliminated in Game 4, with Reeve suspended and Collier sitting on the sidelines.
A Cup win will not erase all that.
But, these Lynx, even if they look a lot different, likely will return to Mortgage Matchup Center with plenty of motivation, and they won’t mind inflicting some pain on the Mercury, who look even less like the team that slammed the door on Minnesota in that semifinal series.
Not only do the Lynx have motivation, but they also have the MVP—0r, at least, the Cup MVP.
No, not Phee, the 2024 Cup MVP. They’ve got Flash! Natasha Howard’s 16-point and 12-rebound double-double captained the Fever to their Cup upset of the Lynx last season.
Now, she’s back in Minnesota, playing in a way that suggests her addition could help the Lynx complete a second successful Cup charge that, possibly, ends with Howard becoming the first two-time Cup MVP.
Will Monday night mark the start of Minnesota’s march to the Cup, with a win that would also accelerate Phoenix’s spiral?
Alternatively, might a Cup champion be coming together in Texas?
What are the chances the Wings become Cup champions?
The Mercury, for now, can still tell themselves that it’s a long season. There’s plenty of time for things to change.
But sometimes, change doesn’t take time. Monday night will only be the Dallas Wings’ ninth game of the season, but the team’s early turbulence already seems long ago settled.
Two-straight wins over the last two winners of the WNBA Finals—the Liberty and Aces—that were, in a significant part, powered by the back-to-back No. 1 picks in the 2025 and 2026 WNBA Drafts, plus the possible best free agent to change teams this past offseason, can convince that the Wings have already figured it out.
After scoring 42 points combined across her first five WNBA games, Azzi Fudd filled it up for 46 points over her last two games, shooting 60 percent from the field behind the 3-point shooting (9-for-17) that made her a top prospect. It’s not just the shooting; Fudd is also executing on the defensive end thanks to her strong frame and smarts. There’s a reason the Wings outscored the Liberty and Aces by the most in Azzi’s minutes.
Meanwhile, Paige Bueckers is providing the production expectation, calibrating her playmaking and shotmaking responsibilities depending on the needs of the team.
Then, Jess Shepard is establishing herself as the third tentpole of Dallas’ possible new Big 3.
Always an efficient around-the-basket finished during her time with the Lynx, Shepard has been more empowered as a playmaker for the Wings, averaging a team-best and career-high 6.5 assists per game. She’s also maintained the elite work on the glass she developed in Minnesota, pulling down 11.4 rebounds per game.
All that has added up to the only two triple-doubles in the WNBA this season, including 22 points, 20 assists and 10 boards against the defending champs. Additionally, she is effectively applying some of the versatile defensive principles she absorbed as a Lynx.
It’s a trio whose talents mesh well together, especially when surrounded by shooting threats like Maddy Siegrist and Arike Ogunbowale, as well as the fearless length of Awak Kuier.
It is unwise to presume that the Wings will not experience another rough patch or two over the course of the season. This is still a young, unfamiliar group that needs find ways to maximize Alanna Smith, as well as coax more consistency from Ogunbowale.
But, encouragement has replaced anxiety in Dallas, and that sense will only become stronger if the team can compete for the top spot in the Western Conference Cup standings with the likes of the Lynx.
Their Cup journey begins with a favorable matchup, hosting a Seattle Storm squad fully focused on the future (8 p.m. ET, NBCSN/Peacock).
Is the time now for the Wings? What do you think about their Cup chances? Do you also see Azzi, Paige and Jess as the team’s foundational players?
