After beating the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing last week, the No. 21 Michigan Wolverines are back at the Big House to host the Purdue Boilermakers.
The days of Jeff Brohm leading the Spoilermakers are long gone, but Purdue only lost by two scores to Illinois and USC, and lost to Minnesota by just a touchdown. Under Barry Odom, Purdue is frisky again.
Here’s what Michigan needs to do to avoid the upset on yet another night game.
Make Purdue’s run game less efficient
As my colleague Kyle Yost broke down this week, while Purdue’s
offense is only averaging 17.6 points per game in conference play, the Boilermakers have an efficient run game. They are averaging 5.17 rushing yards per game against conference opponents, a Top-25 mark in the country.
Devin Mockobee, who played against Michigan in the 2022 Big Ten Championship, is an underrated running back who is hopefully the focal point of Michigan’s defensive game plan. Limiting him and Malachi Thomas in the backfield will be key to Michigan winning — 3rd-and-longs are a lot easier for a defense than 3rd-and-shorts.
Convert on third down
This is semi-related to the key above, but Michigan needs to convert on third down and get Purdue off the field.
Michigan has a statistical advantage in almost every counting stat and rate, but when researching for our Roundtable this week, I found these two teams have a fairly identical third-down conversion percentage — Michigan at 40.4 percent on 99 attempts, and Purdue at 39 percent on 105 attempts. Those marks are right around average across the country.
I mentioned this in last week, but Michigan needs to improve its third-down conversion rate. Extending drives and not relying on big plays is crucial, and it’s something Michigan needs to improve upon before The Game.
Exploit a weak secondary to help bolster Underwood’s confidence
Purdue’s biggest weakness may be its pass defense. As Trevor Woods broke down this week, the Boilermakers are 104th in the country in passing yards allowed, 118th in team pass efficiency defense and 124th in passes intercepted.
As good as Michigan was on the ground last week, Bryce Underwood struggled, throwing for just 86 yards. Being back at home and playing against a worse passing defense than Michigan State’s should help Underwood get back on track.
I want to see Michigan air the ball out and run creative routes. If Underwood throws for more than 250 yards, I don’t see how Michigan doesn’t win by four touchdowns.
What do you think Michigan needs to do to win this game and cover the spread? Let us know in the comments.
