MSU heads to the big stage once again on Tuesday in Madison Square Garden to face one of the preseason contenders, Kentucky Wildcats. MSU enters the contest undefeated and 5.5 point underdogs. Izzo has
made it very clear that he has not been happy with his teams output thus far this season. Kentucky comes in ranked #9 in the county with a loss already to in state rival Louisville this past Tuesday. Let’s take a look at how the two teams match up.
Kentucky and Michigan State have traditionally played each other quite close, and provided some great games, including the 2004 game where Patrick Sparks sent the game into OT with a miraculous 3-pointer. And in 2019, Tyrese Maxey had his coming-out party to help the Kentucky beat the then-No. 1 Spartans. In the 10 games against each other all time, the average margin of victory is just 6.6 points, with half of the games decided by five points or less. Michigan State does have a 6-4 advantage, and the latest win in the series was beating Kentucky in the Champions Classic 86-77 in 2022.
Kentucky enters this game averaging around 90 points a game. Clearly the Wildcats can put some points on the board so maybe this is the game where the Spartan perimeter shooting will come to life. Izzo has also been disappointed in free throw shooting and if MSU gets to the line a decent amount they will need those free points to keep pace.
Offensive Rebounding
Kentucky is loaded with talent and deep. Denzel Aberdeen leads their team with points and minutes and has started this season as a clear team leader. What the Wildcats have not had to face yet is a team that plays as physical as MSU. Izzo teams are known for their rebounding, specifically offensively and the interior play. Kentucky is going to need to hang with the Spartans and limit their second chance opportunities. MSU has struggled again this season with perimeter shooting and Kentucky will be playing to force MSU to make those shots. This is where the offensive rebounding will be a key for the Spartans as Kentucky has given up its share of offensive rebounds this season.
Screens
The Spartans have been scoring most of their points inside. They rank 294 if three point attempts. So clearly, MSU needs to dominate inside the paint. Izzo gets this by the constant screens and handoffs that create mismatches to set the Spartans up for scoring opportunities. Kentucky struggles against this as this was a key to Louisville’s victory. Kentucky is aware of this weakness and has been practicing to improve and MSU will be a one of the better teams they face with this style of gameplay.
Transitions
Another opportunity the Spartans will have will be in the transition game. If they can get a guy out and push the ball quickly we could see some Coen Carr highlights. Louisville was very successful against the Wildcats in pushing the transition and this is also a staple in Izzo teams. Kentucky is a fast team with good athletes that can run with MSU but the Spartans will definitely be able to find some success with strong defensive rebounding and pushing the attack.
Breakout Performance
I think the Spartans are going to need a breakout performance from someone behind the perimeter. It is MSG, national exposure, and another opportunity for a season statement game. If they can have someone find a hot hand and get that early confidence it will open up everything for MSU. Could it be Teng? There are definitely eyes on him waiting to take his moment.
As always, MSU will also have to protect the ball and keep the big three of Cooper, Carr and Kohler out of foul trouble. I’m not one that has a lot of confidence in MSU when it comes to playing the Blue Blood schools. I think MSU will stay within 7 most of the game and when they get close Kentucky will answer with a short run and MSU will fall to Kentucky 83-70. Let us know your predictions in the comments and I hope I am very wrong. Go Green!
