The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams clash for the second time in 2025 on Sunday afternoon at Levi’s Stadium in a critical NFC West matchup. With an undefeated divisional record, a victory for the 49ers would
be huge for the team to increase its chances of a division crown. After their loss to the 49ers on Thursday Night Football, the Rams have ripped off three consecutive wins over the Ravens, Jaguars, and Saints, with a bye week in between. The 49ers are 2-2 since the first meeting and fresh off a win over the Giants at MetLife Stadium.
So how can the 49ers pull off another win over their divisional rivals? Let’s look at three matchups to watch for on Sunday.
Can the short passing game work again against the Rams’ defense?
In the first matchup, Mac Jones and the depleted 49ers pass catcher group, which included Jake Tonges, Kendrick Bourne, and Demarcus Robinson, attacked the Rams underneath for much of the game and created yards after the catch while playing ball control. Can the 49ers rely on that same game plan this week? A variation of it will work. Given the losses on defense, the 49ers will have to control the time of possession, but have a chance for more explosives with George Kittle and Jauan Jennings in the lineup this time.
The Rams’ defense is number one on defense with an EPA/play of -0.12 and second in EPA/dropback of -0.10 with an EPA/rush of -0.14, which is good for fourth in the NFL. Suffice to say, the 49ers may struggle to run the football on Sunday. Where the Rams’ defense is vulnerable is in the intermediate area. Although they have faced intermediate throws 20.5% (16th in the NFL), the Rams have allowed an EPA of 0.19 in the intermediate. Attack the linebackers, Kyle.
Slowing down Matthew Stafford
Stafford is playing as well as he ever has at this point in his career. The Rams’ offense is number one in the NFL with a 51.3% success rate. With the highest under center (57.9%) and play action rate (34.4%), Stafford and the Rams have been efficient with an EPA/dropback of 0.21. Toss in the third-highest deep pass rate at 15.4% and the fourth-highest deep EPA of 0.96, and the 49ers defense will have its hands full trying to slow down Stafford.
With the depleted 49ers defensive line, Robert Saleh will have to raise his blitz rate to create pressure on Stafford. At 32.6%, Stafford faces the seventh-highest blitz rate. The 49ers sit at a 23.6% blitz rate, which is good for 27th in the NFL, but have a league-worst pressure rate of 19.9%. When pressured, the Rams’ EPA drops to -0.29. Find a way to stay in Stafford’s face.
Keeping the game close
Since 2019, the 49ers have won by margins of 13, 21, 15, and 17 over the Rams. The other victories have been one-score affairs of three (four different times), eight, and seven. In 2018, the Rams swept the 49ers by margins of 29 and 16. Since then, the four victories have been by margins of three (twice), one, and six. Last season, the Rams swept the depleted 49ers but won by a combined margin of nine. The one-point victory was in the final game of 2023 when Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz faced off. The first three-point margin victory was in the NFC Championship game.
So, why does this matter? Recently, no matter the talent discrepancy on either side, the games have been 49ers close victories, 49ers blowouts, or Rams close victories. The Rams were given 8.5 points in the first meeting on Thursday, and that felt foolish. This time, in Santa Clara, the line favors the Rams by 4.5 points. That’s much closer to history. The 49ers have to keep the game close and make enough plays down the stretch to walk away with another victory over Los Angeles. A big special teams play can help swing the game in the 49ers’ favor.
