Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
As of this week, out of 32
starting QBs, I have Daniel Jones ranked 30th for the season in efficiency. That’s quite a contrast to one year ago today, when I wrote this about him:
“I think I could just copy and paste my comments from previous weeks, because Jones keeps delivering the same consistently strong performances. In Week 8, he was once again a top-10 QB in EPA efficiency and success rate, minimizing mistakes and mixing in high-impact plays to keep the NFL’s best offense rolling”.
Let me just update that for the current year: I think I could just copy and paste my comments from previous weeks, because Jones keeps delivering the same consistently poor performances. In Week 7, he was once again a bottom-five QB in EPA efficiency, making mistakes and mixing in costly sacks to keep one of the NFL’s worst passing attacks sputtering.
Here’s how the offense looked against the Vikings:
After the first drive, there wasn’t a lot of movement down the field. The Colts could only manage a 31st place Drive Success Rate (65.2%) and that just isn’t going to cut it. The run game was capable and provided the only Colts’ touchdown of the day, but the passing was absolute garbage. Let me tell you that story in numbers.
HOW WELL?
mouseover definitions: arsr, edp, sg%, oz%, pr%, tip, ttt, adot, ay/c, yac, yacoe, yd/c, ac%, cpoe, aypa, drp, scr%, ta%, sck%, aa%, ny/d, ny/p, 1st%, td%, to%, qbsr, epa/p, adj/p
- The offense tried leaning on its run game on early downs and found moderate success. (15th ARSR; 26th EDP)
- The Vikings have the #1 Pass Rush Win Rate in the league and it showed as Jones faced tremendous pressure from constant blitzing, causing him to rush his throws a bit. (1st PR%; 19th TIP; 22nd TTT)
- Jones was forced into short passes, and those completions produced very little yardage after the catch. The Colts finished at the bottom of the league in total yards per completion. (26th ADOT; 19th AY/C; 30th YAC; 31st YCOE; 32nd YD/C)
- Jones struggled to complete passes, finishing well below expectations. Combined with the limited yardage on his completions, that left him dead last in yards per attempt. (27th AC%; 31st CPOE; 32nd AYPA)
- Drops weren’t a factor, but sacks certainly were. Jones was sacked four times, while scrambling only once and throwing the ball away twice. His decision making in the face of pressure is poor (29th DRP; 13th SCR%; 7th TA%; 2nd SCK%; 2nd AA%)
- Between the short passing game, poor completion rate and sacks, Jones finished dead last in the league in yardage efficiency, averaging just 2.6 yards per play. (32nd NY/D; 32nd NY/P)
- With such poor passing, the offense struggled to generate first downs and Jones failed to produce a passing touchdown. (26th 1ST%; 30th TD%)
- Jones’ interception was another damaging play in an already inefficient passing performance. (3rd TO%)
- Ironically, Jones was reasonably consistent at producing positive plays, finishing near the middle of the league in success rate. The problem was that a lot of his positive plays were barely positive, while his negative plays were particularly costly, That is why his EPA efficiency was far, far worse than his success rate. (16th QBSR; 30th EPA/P)
Jones’ efficiency curve shows how his passing production fell apart. Although he generated decent air yardage on shorter completions, the absence of deep completions and very little production after the catch drove his average yardage near the bottom of the league. His inability to complete passes or make good decisions under pressure prevented him from improving on that.
Jones had some productive plays scattered throughout the game, particularly in the first half, but they were repeatedly offset by costly negative plays. The biggest problems were four sacks, including two consecutive sacks early in the third quarter, and the fourth-quarter interception that removed any hope of a comeback. Jones actually produced positive EPA on half his quarterback plays (15 of 30), but the negative plays were considerably more damaging than the positive plays were valuable. He finished with just a 50.0% success rate and a god-awful -0.15 EPA per play.
Jones’ recent struggles are becoming more apparent. His success rate has remained somewhat stable, hovering just below league average, but his EPA per play continues to fall, with five of his last seven games finishing in negative territory. Most concerning is the steady decline in net yards per QB play, which fell to the aforementioned 2.6 yards this week.
HOW FAR?
Jones never established much rhythm in the passing game, although he did put together a productive stretch of short completions during the second and third quarters. Nearly all his throws were short, with no attempts over 20 yards (1 incompletion of 20 yards). The interception was the dagger.
After averaging 11.5 air yards per target in each of the previous two weeks, Jones returned to a much shorter passing game, with a 5.2 ADOT this week. His completions averaged 5.1 yards downfield, continuing a longer-term downward trend in the depth of his completed passes.
Jones is averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt this season off of the 8th shortest passes.
TO WHO?
Keenan Allen led the Colts with 31 receiving yards on 3 targets. I guess Jones spread the ball around a lot, so that’s good… kind of.
Tyler Warren has missed 2 weeks and he still leads the team in receptions.
Not a lot of depth for anybody this week.
Not a lot of value for anybody this season.
HOW ACCURATE?
Jones 59.1% completion rate was 11% lower than expected given the short throws he was making. That continues a season long decline in accuracy (CPOE). Looking at the season as a whole, Jones has been below league average at nearly every passing depth, with his biggest struggles coming on throws beyond 20 yards.
HOW FAST?
Jones averaged 2.57 seconds to throw this week, a significant drop from 2.93 seconds the previous week and somewhat quicker than league average. Unfortunately, a lot of that was hurried throws to avoid pressure. His season-long time to throw has been relatively normal for the depth of his targets, sitting close to the league trend line.
TO WHERE?
Jones had mixed results on shorter throws, finding considerable success on passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, while struggling badly everywhere else. He didn’t attempt a single pass beyond 20 yards.
Some of the worst deep throws in the league.
