Tennessee heads down to College Station this weekend for a showdown with the Texas A&M Aggies. The Vols certainly are the better team this season at 7-2 compared to 4-5, with the Aggies having lost four of their last six, with wins only against Arkansas and The Citadel at home.
That said, the oddsmakers see this game as going down to the wire, with Tennessee instilled as only a 2.5-point favorite. The books know something, and that always makes me a little bit nervous. In fact, I was more nervous by
a wide margin over this weekend than I was last weekend against Kentucky. I did not think Tennessee was going to lose to the Wildcats. Tennessee is a different animal at home, both historically under Josh Heupel and this season in particular.
But this is a Texas A&M team that has nothing to lose, and they still have plenty of talent, particularly if they get the good version of Marcel Reed under center.
A&M’s defense also hasn’t been perhaps as bad as one would expect from a 4-5 team. They’ve allowed 20 or less points in five games. And despite their offensive struggles (single-digit points in three SEC losses), they’ve allowed just one team to surpass 31 points this year.
So, I still expect a hard fought, close game on Saturday in College Station. And to win, the task will be even tougher, with Daune Morris out for the season after being involved in a car accident on Thursday. It’s yet another tough injury to add to the list of the Vols’ growing list of season-ending injuries, and it’s one that directly impacts arguably the Vols’ greatest strength in the run game.
DeSean Bishop should see an uptick in work, and Javin Gordon appears to be next in line to fill in behind him in place of Morris.
This game was always about doing what Tennessee has done well this year: grinding down the opposition over four quarters and leaning on their superior physicality and conditioning to put teams away. We saw it in wins and home over Alabama and Kentucky. Had it not been for a fourth down brain cramp against South Carolina, we’re likely talking about it there as well.
A&M can slow down the run. Alabama ran it 28 times for just 68 yards. South Carolina totaled a modest 107. But Missouri’s Jamal Roberts went for 222 on 34 carries back on Oct. 10. That’s the type of performance Tennessee is going to need from Bishop and the Vols on Saturday, particularly with Morris out for the rest of the year.
It’s not going to be easy. I think this could end up being the toughest game of the rest of the season for Tennessee. But the course must be stayed, and Tennessee, like last week, needs to and surely will continue to lean on who they are to try to escape their biggest remaining road test and set up a titanic showdown next week against Lane Kiffin and LSU.
It’s a four-quarter battle, but Tennessee’s defense keeps Reed in the pocket and locks down defensively. The ground game stays patient and pops some big plays in the second half to get out of town at 8-2.
Prediction: Tennessee 23, Texas A&M 16
