UFC 330 is live this Saturday (August 15, 2026) from Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA, streaming exclusively on Paramount+ (watch here). The main event is for Welterweight gold with Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry. The co-main is also for a title with Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson.
Rounding out the main card is Charles Johnson vs. Jose Ochoa, Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus and Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics. There’s a good chance for highlight reel finishes in those
fights.
The featured ‘Prelim’ is Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Alvarez, with Alvarez sliding in for the injured Geoff Neal. The undercard also has Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes, Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore and Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj.
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC 330 Main Card Money Line Odds
Islam Makhachev (-340) vs. Ian Machado Garry (+270)
Makachev won the Welterweight title with an extremely one-sided fight with Jack Della Maddalena. He grounded the Aussie and beat him up across five entire rounds to take gold in his second UFC weight division. He finished his Lightweight champion career with defenses over Renato Moicano (a short notice replacement), Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski.
Machado Garry earns his first UFC title shot after a very convincing decision over Belal Muhammad in November. Before that he handed Carlos Prates his first UFC loss. He decisioned the Nightmare, but not after getting seriously hurt in the late stages. Machado Garry is now 10-1 in UFC with his loss being to Shavkat Rakhmonov, with a performance that earned the Irishman plenty of respect.
This is a really tough fight to call. And I’m surprised to see the odds so long on Machado Garry.
I think Makhachev wins this, but there are a lot of reasons why I’m not super confident in that assertion.
First, there’s the size factor. Despite what that face-to-face photo suggests, Machado Garry is the bigger man and he’ll have a very useful reach advantage against Makachev. Since Machado Garry is a very skilled outside fighter, his reach advantages might as well count as double. He can make his four inches of reach over Makhachev feel like eight.
There’s also an age factor, with Makhachev turning 35 in two months. At 28, Machado Garry is in his physical prime. It’s hard to tell if Makhachev’s age is catching up to him, though, since we see him so infrequently. I feel that if a drop off comes, then it will come as a big surprise. And, it’s more likely that Makhachev and his team will see that before we do, and he’ll follow Khabib Nurmagomedov’s example and go out on top (maybe even this weekend).
The last factor I’m considering is how well Machado Garry does in bouts where I expect him to struggle. He looked great against the past and present boogeymen of the division (Rakhmonov and Prates) and I would not be shocked if he implements a perfect gameplan here and gets the gold.
Machado Garry is certainly confident that this happens. And I suppose that’s worth factoring in, too. I think a lot of fighters go into these Team Khabib fights thinking they are at such a disadvantage that they need to be lucky to win. I’ve interviewed Machado Garry and I can tell you, the man believes everything he is saying. So he is one hundred percent certain he’s getting his hand raised on Saturday.
That’s all well and good, but I think Makhachev is probably just as confident.
Despite how good I think Machado Garry is and how well he might do in this fight, I just can’t rule out the most obvious thing here. Islam Makhachev might be one of the best we’ve ever seen do this. His sambo is as smothering and brutal as anyone we’ve seen, including his mentor. And his striking is also elite, just ask Poirier; Makhachev was not afraid to throw down with.
I think Machado Garry might have his moments in this fight, but I don’t think those moments will get him a win. He doesn’t have the kind of killshot that could put down Makhachev, so he’s going to need to be perfect for five rounds to stop himself from getting taken down and mauled. I think it’s most likely that Makhachev has his moments, too, but they are longer and more punishing and that this will earn him the fight.
With the moneyline so short on Makhachev, I need to consider the round total. It’s set at 4.5. I think this is going to a decision, so I see why Vegas did this. The over is -180. That’s tempting, but there’s plus money out there if I’m brave enough to take it.
Makhachev by decision is +110. That’s going to be my best bet. I think we’re going to walk away from this fight saying, “Wow, Machado Garry is great”, but also “Damn, who can beat Makhachev?”
Best bet: Islam Makhachev by decision (+110)
Mackenzie Dern (-225) vs. Gillian Robertson (+185)
Dern won the vacant Strawweight title with a very dull unanimous decision over Virna Jandiroba in October. She earned that title with a submission over Amanda Ribas (see it here) and a decision over Lupita Godinez. Getting a title fight off just a two fight win streak speaks volumes about the division.
That being said Robertson has banked this title shot off a lengthy winning streak. She’s won five in a row. The last one was a quality win over Amanda Lemos. Among her previous victories are a TKO over Marina Rodriguez and a decision over the retiring Michelle Waterson-Gomez.
I have a bad feeling about this fight.
Dern’s career has been an example of a grappling ace who can’t or doesn’t really implement her submission skills in an MMA cage. And this has led to a lot of boring fights from her where little happens and she attempts to show us how much she has grown as a striker.
Robertson doesn’t have the same BJJ background as Dern, though she has a very good one. And, so far, she’s been able to use her ground skills to win fights (and beat other girls up). I’m worried, though, that against Dern she’s going to want to stay on her feet. She might not want to poke the bear and force Dern to show us why she has a display case full of gold medals. Robertson is likely a very confident fighter and she probably thinks she can hang on the ground with Dern, but she has to recognize that she’s got a much better shot at beating her on the feet.
Dern has improved a lot as a striker. And she’s added a lot more muscle and power to her punching. But she’s still a work in progress. Robertson’s not an elite striker either, though she seems pretty comfortable on her feet.
If we are set for a boring kickboxing match that goes to the judges. I like Dern’s chances of getting her hand raised. There is a champion bias in these close bouts and I think Dern might be the one moving forwards more, knowing she has her jits to fall back on if she gets hurt or if Robertson takes her down.
I would love to see Robertson win, and not just because I’m Canadian. She’s an exciting fighter who likes to get violent. But I think this situation, and opponent, will conspire to make her fight an underwhelming fight.
I’m very surprised to see the round total as 3.5 and not 4.5. I really don’t think there’s a finish here. The betting public agrees with that, with the over being -220.
To get as much value as I can, I’m going to go with Dern by decision. I really do think the ground games are going to cancel each other out here and I would be stunned if one of these ladies lands a KO shot while standing.
Best bet: Mackenzie Dern by decision (+150)
Charles Johnson (+340) vs. Jose Ochoa (-440)
This is Johnson’s fourth fight of 2026. He started the year with a KO loss to Alex Perez (see that here). He then won a split decision over Bruno Silva. In June he was beaten up and then almost split in half by Asu Almabayev (see it here).
Ochoa lost to Almabayev a year ago. He’s only fought once since then; a unanimous decision over Clayton Carpenter. Ochoa’s standout moments include him lighting up Cody Durden for a second round TKO (see it here) and taking Lone’er Kavanagh to a decision.
I’m really liking the underdogs on this card, but that’s only because I’m being surprised by who is and isn’t an underdog. To see Johnson, a man who has KO’d Joshua Van and Lone’er Kavanagh, as the underdog against a man who is just going to stand and bang is pretty amazing to me.
Yes, Johnson’s failures are as notable as his successes, but I still think he’s done and shown a lot more than Ochoa has done thus far. I do rate Ochoa very highly as a fighter, though, that beatdown he put on Durden was sensational.
Ochoa is also a little inactive. Johnson might be too active, though.
No matter which way this goes, I think this is a close fight and both men are going to land hard stuff. They are two of the heavier hitters at Flyweight so that means a chance for a finish is rather high.
I think we have a war on our hands here. And in this situation, I’ll take the big underdog.
Best bet: Charles Johnson moneyline (+340)
Mansur Abdul-Malik (-575) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+425)
Abdul-Malik had a lot of hype coming off Contender Series in 2024. He looked good when he took apart Dusko Todorovic in his first outing (see it here). But since then his results have led to that hype being slowly chipped away. He beat Nick Klein by TKO, but was dropped first. Then he had a weird fight with Cody Brundage that was overturned to a draw. He then took out Antonio Trocoli (who is 0-4 in UFC). That all set up a fight with Yousri Belgaroui in March. He was totally outclassed in that fight and after getting rocked, a bunch, was finally put down with a knee (see it here).
Stoltzfus lost a unanimous decision to Kelvin Gastelum in September, in a competitive showing. Before that he lost a decision to Nursulton Ruziboev. His last win was a TKO finish over Marc-Andre Barriault in November, 2024 (see it here).
I think Abdul-Malik probably wins this, but I can’t support him being a -575 favorite in this bout. Stoltzfus is a wild man and I can totally see him dropping Abdul-Malik with a spinning back fist.
I really admire the heart I’ve seen from Stoltzfus in a lot of his fights. But that, alone, will make me pick him in this fight (maybe as a long shot, though!). Abdul-Malik is bigger, longer, stronger and younger. And he has terrifying ground and pound. With Stoltzfus’ takedown defense being less than stellar, I think that’s probably where this one is heading.
I’ll take Abdul-Malik minus the points for longer odds (and since I think a finish for Abdul-Malik or a row of 30-27s are the most likely outcomes).
Best bet: Mansur Abdul-Malik -7.5 (-190)
Edson Barboza (+390) vs. Esteban Ribovics (-520)
Barboza turned 40 in January. He’s currently riding a three fight losing skid. In December he was demolished by Jalin Turner (see it here). Before that he was beat up by Drakkar Klose for a lopsided decision loss. And before that he put in a good showing against Lerone Murphy, but still lost by unanimous decision. His last UFC win was over Sodiq Yusuff in 2023.
Ribovics was over-powered by Mateusz Gamrot in April, losing by first round decision (see it here). That was his first fight, in a while, that wasn’t a total war. He earned Fight of the Night awards for his unanimous decision over Elves Brener, split decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast and split decision win over Daniel Zellhuber. The Zellhuber fight was one of the Fights of the Year for 2024.
Barboza has been one of my favorite fighters for a very long time. So it’s sad to see his decline, especially when he’s being given match ups that don’t feel appropriate for a man on his way out the door (unless you are trying to boost young up and comers by hurting someone whose fights and highlights have helped the promotion become what it is today).
Ribovic is ten years younger than Barboza and he’s got some thrilling highlights of his own, like this headkick on Terrance McKinney. I think the most likely outcome of this fight is Ribovics being too fast for Barboza and him pouring on more volume than the veteran can handle. And I think this probably leads to a TKO.
I think there is a slight chance that Ribovics fights down to his opponent and tries to cruise his way to a decision. He’s managed his energy and his output in recent fights and that has led to mixed results for him. If he plays things slow against Barboza, he might give Barboza a chance to put some strikes in the bank (possibly leg kicks) that slow Ribovics down and prevent him from being able to kick it up a gear later on. This possible scenario has me looking at the over.
The round total is 1.5. That feels a little low for me. That McKinney fight is Ribovics’ only first round finish in UFC. He’s usually a slow-ish starter. That plus Barboza’s big reach advantage might be able to keep Barboza out of trouble for the first round and a half.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-115)
UFC 330 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Chidi Njokuani (+230) vs. Joel Alvarez (-285)
Njokuani comes into this one off two losses. In February he dropped a decision to Carlos Leal. Last year, he was submitted by Jake Matthews. His last win was a TKO over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (see it here), in his first ever co-main event. He was supposed to fight Geoff Neal in this spot, but Neal pulled out about two weeks ago.
Alvarez slides into that spot for his third Welterweight bout in the promotion. He moved up last year, with a decision over Vicente Luque. In May he suffered his first loss since 2022, when he was submitted by Yaroslav Amosov (see it here).
I was really high on Alvarez as a Lightweight and I thought he was a dark horse contender there. Part of that was due to how big he is. Sadly, it seems the cut was just too much for him. I was excited to see what he could do at Welterweight, but he’s been a little underwhelming in the two fights he’s had up here.
He doesn’t have the size in this division, or this match-up, but I think his skills will make up for that against Njokuani. Alvarez will have a three inch disadvantage in this bout, but I think he’ll still be able to land on Njokuani and avoid the power shots coming his way.
I’m picking Alvarez in this bout mostly, though, because he’s more multi-dimensional than Njokuani. Njokuani is a pure striker, with zero takedown attempts in ten bouts.
Alvarez is mostly a striker, but he’s also very comfortable on the ground and he has a wicked front choke game.
Alvarez having those additional weapons (and a third of Njokuani’s losses being by submission) makes he feel pretty confident in the Spaniard for this fight.
Best bet: Joel Alvarez moneyline (-285)
Jalin Turner (-170) vs. Kaue Fernandes (+142)
Turner returned from a retirement in December and decimated Edson Barboza for a first round TKO (see it here). He announced that retirement after a quick loss to Ignacio Bahamondes in March, 2025. That was his second loss in a row, after losing by TKO to Renato Moicano (in a fight he tried to win by walk-off KO).
Fernandes chopped Harry Hardwick down with some of the most brutal leg kicks I’ve ever seen. Before that he battered Guram Kutateladze, also with lots of leg kicks, and took a decision over him. He’s now 3-1 in UFC, after a split decision loss to Mark Diakiese in his debut in 2023.
I’m a mark for leg kicks, so I’ve been counting down the days to see Fernandes again. The technique on his low kicks is so sound and the damage he can do with them is absolutely sickening. I think they might be the story of this fight with Turner.
Fernandes is much smaller than Turner and he’s got a big reach disadvantage, too. That’s all the more reason for him to focus on those leg kicks.
It’s not just the leg kicks that have me jumping on the Fernandes bandwagon here, though. I also love his defense. He absorbs just 1.42 sig. strikes a minute and has a very above average 62 percent defense against sig. strikes. Turner’s defensive stats are well below average, with 4.54 absorbed per minute and just a 41 percent defense.
Best bet: Kaue Fernandes moneyline (+120)
Vicente Luque (+110) vs. Tresean Gore (-130)
Luque got his patented anaconda choke on Kelvin Gastelum in his last fight (see it here). That snapped a two fight losing streak for him. Those losses were a decision to Joel Alvarez and a submission (by anaconda choke!) to Kevin Holland. The 34 year-old is now 17-8 in UFC.
Gore’s unusual pro MMA career took an interesting turn in his last fight. He looked incredible against Azamat Bekoev in April, finishing the former LFA champ with his patented guillotine in the third round (see it here). That also broke a two fight losing skid for him. His losses were to Rodolfo Vieira and Marco Tulio (by KO). He’s 32 and his pro career is only 6-4 (3-4 in UFC).
Gore is a weird cat. He doesn’t seem especially good, but he is capable of big fight winning moments. He often seems to channel a lot of emotion and personality into those moments.
He’s up against his best opponent to date here, though. And the age factor with Luque shouldn’t be too concerning, since he’s so close to Gore in age. Luque should be smart enough to stay out of that guillotine. Will Gore be smart enough to stay out of the D’arce, though? I have my doubts about that.
Best bet: Vicente Luque moneyline (+110)
Donte Johnson (-218) vs. Eric McConico (+180)
The 8-0 Johnson still appears to be learning on the job. Last time out he eeked out a split decision over Cody Brundage, largely thanks to Brundage’s lack of gas tank and seeming lack of interest. Johnson was more convincing in his debut, a second round submission over Sedriques Dumas (see it here). These fights were Johnson’s first at Middleweight. Prior to this he fought as a severely undersized Heavyweight.
McConico took a decision over Rodolfo Vieira in April. That wasn’t a great fight to watch, but McConico deserves credit for coming back to win rounds two and three after losing the first. McConico is now 2-2 in UFC, though those two losses were to Baisangur Susurkaev and Nursulton Ruziboev. Both those losses were TKOs, after McConico looked competitive early on.
I think Johnson is going to hit his ceiling sooner rather than later. That’s unless he moves to a bigger team and maybe goes down another weight class (one which would force him to live a little more of an athlete’s lifestyle). With McConico doing better than expected, early on, against bigger names, I think there are reasons to like him as the underdog in this bout.
It’s yet another fight where Johnson will be undersized. That seems to be just the route he’s chosen to take in his MMA career. McConico is four inches taller than him and will have a three inch reach advantage. Johnson might be more physically strong than McConico, though.
The round total is 1.5 and I think that’s way too low. I see this as a close fight, and maybe a pretty dull one, that goes to a decision.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-166)
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UFC 330 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Jeremiah Wells (+575) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-850)
Wells used surprisingly good wrestling to beat Themba Gorimbo in November. He had lost to Max Griffin and Carlston Harris before that. He’s now 5-2 in UFC and 13-4-1 overall.
Orolbai has looked great at Welterweight, since dropping down last year. His divisional debut was a first round destruction of former Middleweight Jack Hermansson (see it here). In his last fight, in March, he took a decision over Chris Curtis (another former Middleweight). Orolbai is now 5-1 in UFC with his only loss being to Mateusz Rebecki in a Fight of the Year candidate.
Orolbai is our biggest favorite on the card and I’m not mad at that at all. He’s looked like a destroyer at Middleweight. Wells hasn’t shown us much, other than that improved wrestling over Gorimbo (who retired after that fight). I don’t think his wrestling will trouble Orolbai here, though, Orolbai is a great grappler and he has a knack for finding positions where he can do damage from.
The round total for this is 1.5 with the over at -125 and under at -105. I’ll take the over, thinking Wells wrestling does help him play defense in this bout. I think he’s going to spend a lot of time pressed against the fence and sat up against it, but he might be able to prevent Orolbai flattening him out until later in the fight (when he’s more tired).
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-125)
Neil Magny (+105) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (-125)
Magny was dragged down and choked by Yaroslav Amosov in his last fight (see it here). That was in December. That was UFC fight number 37 for the 39-year-old. That loss snapped a mini winning streak for Magny after he beat fellow veterans Jake Matthews and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Those were both finishes, too! Magny has lost five of his last eleven bouts, but that includes losses against the top guys in the division: Carlos Prates, Michael Morales, Ian Machado Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov.
Brahimaj had his three fight winning streak broken by Punahele Soriano in February. That was a unanimous decision, but Brahimaj still had his moments. Before that he finished Austin Vanderford and Billy Ray Goff with guillotines and KO’d Mickey Gall (see it here).
The oddsmakers just don’t seem to respect Brahimaj. I don’t know why that is, but I’m not complaining. I picked him as an underdog against the legal firm of Vanderford, Goff and Gall. I’m stunned that the odds are so close here against Magny.
Magny has great size on Brahimaj. And we did see Themba Gorimbo pin Brahimaj to the fence and grind out a decision over him. But I think Brahimaj’s striking and grappling are more potent than Magny’s are. So I think there’s a good chance Brahimaj might be able to hurt Magny and that outweighs Magny’s size (especially when he’s at this stage of his career).
Best bet: Ramiz Brahimaj moneyline (-125)
Rafael Tobias (+250) vs. Lucas Fernando (-310)
Tobias lost his post-Contender Series fight to Diyar Nurgozhay in March. That was a very forgettable fight where Tobias’ ineffectiveness was matched only by his timidity. That loss was Tobias’ second in 16 pro fights. His other loss was a KO suffered in LFA (to no one special).
Fernando lost a decision to Cesar Almeida on Contender Series in 2023. He then lost a decision to future UFC signing Azamat Bekoev. That cost him his LFA title. He’s been good since then, though, winning four fights in LFA and claiming back that belt.
Fernando is the big favorite here. Maybe that’s because he’s got six inches of reach over Tobias. I’m taking Tobias, though. He’s done marginally more at this level. He’s six years younger and his grappling has looked decent.
Best bet: Rafael Tobias moneyline (+250)
UFC 330 Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …
Two fight parlay: Charles Johnson and Islam Makhachev (+469)
I like a few underdogs on this card, but Johnson is my favorite. I think he’s going to be in a dog fight with Jose Ochoa and he’s got a good chance of landing the last shot. I’ve paired him with the best fighter on the card here. That’s just me being greedy.
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry to be won by split or majority decision (+450)
If Machado Garry wins this, then I think it’s going to be a razor thin decision. I think it’s more likely, though, that he puts in another fantastic performance, but it just isn’t quite enough to get him over the hill and earn that belt.
Dustin Stoltzfus by KO/TKO/DQ (+2000)
Mansur Abdul-Malik has a lot of question marks around him. He’s been dropped by a spinning shot before and Stoltzfus is capable of doing the same.
