The Spurs are tied for last place with a bunch of bad teams. Other winless teams the Spurs are tied with include the Bulls, Bucks, Nets, Pelicans, Suns and Kings. Not a group to be associated with. The Spurs are also tied with the “world champion New York Knicks”. Feels odd to write those words after 53 years. And because of Tuesday’s night’s game, the Spurs main rival is undefeated on the season.
And yes, the Spurs’ best player had a dreadful offensive game against the Thunder. Near the end of the second
quarter, I asked my friend who was watching the game with me, “Does Victor have a basket yet?” The answer was “no”. And he didn’t actually make a “shot” all night – his one basket came in the second half on a dunk off a lob pass.
And yes, the Spurs longest tenured player, Devin Vassel, scored only 7 points in 31 minutes, on 25% shooting. Perhaps being forced to defend OKC bigs like Holmgren on the other end was a bit draining?
And yes, the Thunder’s best player had a great offensive game. I was surprised to see that the box score had SGA at only 13 for 27 from the floor. It felt like he didn’t miss any. It also felt like a bunch of shots were punctuated with “and one!” Which always sucks.
And yes, the Thunder’s bigs looked pretty good. Punching bag Chet Holmgren outscored Victor Wembanyama 14-12 and blocked his shot at least once, looking not at all like the cowering Chet from last season’s WC Finals. And the Thunder new kid, Aday Mara, played a very effective 12 minutes, making three times as many shots as Victor, and doing something never before seen: blocking a lob-dunk by our Frenchman. The Spanish dude might be a problem going forward.
And the Thunder defense looked very strong, not missing Lu Dort at all. Alex Caruso was his usual pesky self on D and also nailed both of this three-pointers. SGA was also great on D, getting three steals and three blocks – he is clearly ahead in the MVP race thus far in the season. (Though Anthony Edwards may want a word.)
Based on all of that, the consensus among the media, and presumably everyone who watched the game, is that the Thunder dominated the Spurs, “They just wanted it more”. An understandable conclusion, especially because of how the Thunder ended last season, having to watch the young Spurs emotionally celebrate after Game Seven of the Western Conference Finals on their own floor. And then hearing about it all summer.
I agreed with the consensus until I calmed down and looked at the box score, as coaches (and former coaches) like to do.
When I look at the box score, I first look at extra possessions by each team – turnovers and offensive rebounds. The Spurs had two more turnovers (13-11) and the same number of offensive rebounds (10). OKC took two more shots from the field, but the Spurs shot five more free throws. The Spurs also shot a bit better on those free throws – 88% t0 80%. On two-point shots, the Spurs shot better – 26-56 as opposed the Thunder’s 27-64. The Spurs also took more threes, 37-31. You can see where this is going. OKC won the game by 12 points because they shot significantly better on threes. They made four more threes than the Spurs on six less attempts. I checked my math with AI, and confirmed that four more three pointers equals 12 more points – the margin of victory in the game.
OKC outshot the Spurs from three largely because Jared McCain came off the bench to go 6-8 from three, with Caruso chipping in his two. If McCain shoots his career average, he only makes three three-pointers, not six. If Caruso misses one of his two, he is still at 50%. And if both of those things happen, OKC has 12 less points, the margin of victory in Game One of Eighty-Two. Not coincidentally, McCain was a game-high plus 20 in his 22 minutes, Caruso plus 16 in his 25 minutes.
All in all, despite the final score, with everything that went wrong for the Spurs and everything that went right for the Thunder, the game was actually quite even. So after carefully analyzing the box score, I felt a bit better about Tuesday night.
And then I looked at the Knicks-76ers box score, and felt worse again. Jalen Brunson shot 6-19 from the floor after seemingly making all his shots against the Spurs in the Finals. OG Anunoby went 1-10 from three, after shooting a bazillion percent from three (actually 50%) in the Finals. Now I am unhappy again. Stupid box scores.
