Getting to Know Group F
Going into a World Cup there will be groups everyone agrees are strong, the so-called groups of death where a top country could be knocked out. And there will be groups everyone agrees are a little weaker and that could maybe set up an underdog nation for a run. Then, finally, there will be groups you look at and have no real idea what to expect. At World Cup 2026, no group that fits that bill better than Group F.
Netherlands will be universal favourites and that’s hard to argue against, but under
head coach Ronald Koeman it’s worth noting that they’ve consistently failed to live up to expectations. Since 2018, the best Netherlands have managed was runners-up at the 2019 Nations League—though Koeman did take a brief break from the national team to manage Barcelona in 2020-21, an experience everyone who’s a fan of the Spanish giants agrees is best forgotten.
Regardless, under Koeman’s watch the Netherlands’ reputation has been for reactive and often disappointingly dull football, and to add insult to injury that approach simply hasn’t won them much.
Then there’s Japan, one of the top football hipster picks at any World Cup but a country that hasn’t made it past the first knockout round in seven tries. This edition of Samurai Blue is solid but perhaps not the strongest group they’ve ever sent to a World Cup, and compared to the top countries they’re lacking a little firepower at both ends of the pitch.
Japan finished first in their AFC qualifying group, but they did so while registering a draw and defeat against group runners-up Australia. Meanwhile, they’ve recently beat some big sides in friendlies—but so far those sorts of successes have only come in friendlies.
With apologies for skipping past Tunisia, what could really Group F into chaos is the presence of Sweden. The Swedes had just about the worst qualification run imaginable and are only here thanks to being bailed out via a convoluted playoff. On paper they should have been good enough to qualify directly. In practice they probably shouldn’t be here at all. Which Sweden will show up?
How to Watch
Sunday, June 14th
Netherlands vs. Japan
4PM EST/1PM PST | AT&T Stadium, Arlington (TX)
How to Watch: FOX
Sweden vs. Tunisia
10PM EST/7PM PST | Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
How to Watch: FS1
Saturday, June 20th
Netherlands vs. Sweden
1PM EST/10AM PST | NRG Stadium, Houston
How to Watch: FOX
Tunisia vs. Japan
Midnight EST/9PM PST | Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
How to Watch: FS1
Thursday, June 25th
Japan vs. Sweden
7PM EST/4PM PST | AT&T Stadium, Arlington (TX)
How to Watch: FS1
Tunisia vs. Netherlands
7PM EST/4PM PST | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
How to Watch: FOX
Game of the Group
Netherlands vs. Japan
Every combination of Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden at this World Cup seems to have the potential to at least be interesting and as though it might just answer a few questions—or raise a few new ones. So we’re just going to go with game number one.
Will Netherlands captain Virgil van Dijk be able to put a season of club disappointment behind him and roll back the years in his last chance to make a real difference at a World Cup? Will Koeman be able to cobble together an effective attack with players like Xavi Simons, Cody Gakpo, and Memphis Depay but no top-level striker?
Does a Japan side that lacks truly elite talent and had some ups and downs in qualifying but which has beaten Germany, England, Spain, and Brazil in friendlies since the last World Cup be good enough to maybe get past the first knockout round? With winger Kaoru Mitoma out with a hamstring injury, will Takefusa Kubo be able to carry their attack?
Game one might answer at least some of these questions. Even if it doesn’t, it should be one of the best early group stage games at the World Cup.
Group F Predictions
Sweden is the problem here, but even if they’re a lot better than in qualifying the safe money is on Netherlands first and Japan second. If Sweden remember how to play football, all of a sudden Group F gets very tough. If they continue to misfire, it could be an opportunity for a Tunisia to slip through, with eight of 12 third-place finishers advancing to the knockout rounds.
Tunisia didn’t excel at the last Africa Cup of Nations, but it’s hard to overstate just how terrible Sweden were in qualifying. Most will pick them third on name recognition, but we’re going to trust that what our eyes saw in UEFA qualifying was real and back Tunisia to surprise everyone and make it out of Group F as a third-place qualifier.
Things get tough in a hurry for whoever advances when group play ends, though, as the quirks of the knockout bracket have the winner here facing the Group C runner-up while the runner-up gets the Group C winner—and Group C has powerhouse Brazil, Africa Cup of Nations winners Morocco, and a solid Scotland. That’s a tough draw however things play out.
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