The #19 Iowa Hawkeyes (12-3, 2-2) are licking their wounds after a loss at Minnesota and waiting for them at home is … the #16 Illinois Fighting Illini (12-3, 3-1) who are probably stronger than their ranking
suggests. They’ve got a ton of positional size, cycle the 7-foot-plus Ivisic twins at center, and shoot a ton of 3s. The defense is strong and they are among the best in the country at not sending opponents to the line – always having a 7-footer on the court has a way of doing that.
If that weren’t enough, Iowa’s carrying the baggage of a four-game losing streak to the Illini and have lost nine of the last 10 to them.
I’m not mad. Please don’t put in the newspaper that I got mad.
Perhaps what best describes the strength of Illinois is their losses – #13 Alabama, #4 UConn, #10 Nebraska. If there’s anything going Iowa’s way, it’s that they have had an extra couple days to recover from an illness going through the locker room as Illinois breezed through a home win vs. Rutgers on Thursday.
For Iowa, the emphasis in Ben McCollum’s presser two days ago was leverage and pace. The focus for him was how to make sure the Hawks are using pace to get from action to action, which helps enable non-ball handlers (typically Bennett Stirtz) to get clean looks on offense. This will be very hard against Illinois, who block 14.1% of 2-point shots.
A huge part of that is Alvaro Folgueiras. Folgueiras has been as up-and-down as any Hawkeye with McCollum citing, post-UCLA, the end of semester as a turning point for the Spaniard. He shook off some spotty play from November into December with 4 straight games of double-digit scoring, including a scorching start against UCLA for 13 points. That did not carryover against Minnesota, with a goose egg and just 2 shot attempts in 11 minutes.
As Iowa’s stretch 5, he’ll be incredibly important against Illinois both in terms of stretching the defense to bring their shot blockers out to the perimeter (Zvonimir Ivisic is blocking 14.6% of opponent 2s when he’s on the court) but also in his ability to scrap on the boards. As a team, Illinois is rebounding nearly 40% of their misses (14th in the country). Both centers are used to tie up opponent posts while Keaton Wagler & David Mirkovic crash from the wing, leading the team with 2.6 and 2.2 offensive boards a game.
Defensively, the Hawkeyes have turned opponents over 23.3% of the time. It’s aided in Iowa having the #4 scoring defense in the country – and first in the conference – at 60.8 points/game. While some of it could get chalked up to bullying opponents in buy games, Iowa has still allowed no more than 71 points to power conference teams. Their turnover rate is 20.3% in four conference games. That gives you a chance to win every night.
(For what it’s worth, 71 points would represent the second lowest scoring output Illinois has had against power conference foes to the 61 points UConn held them to. This team can FILL. IT. UP.)
Part of the case for bringing McCollum on board was the bones of a roster plus the head of a snake in Bennett Stirtz. He’s a guy who was sold as someone who can set everyone up throughout the game and then take over when it’s needed down the stretch. I’d say he’s shown flashes of that in the few tight games Iowa’s played, perhaps most notably against Ole Miss who … is not who I thought they were. However, he’s lacked that true defining moment so far this season. He was close against Minnesota & Iowa State.
With the schedule not letting up over the next three games (exciting state of Indiana swing upcoming!), the importance of nabbing this game against Illinois comes into greater focus post-Minnesota loss. If the Hawks can pull it off, it keeps a one-game losing streak from turning into, potentially four.
Knowing just how big of a fan McCollum was of the Hawks growing up, there’s no denying he knows just how deep the rivalry with Illinois runs. Let’s hope he can get his record against them off to a positive start with a win on Sunday.
