If you have been reading this series, you know that we started at 48 wins because that is the generally recognized replacement level. From there, we added 20 wins for the lineup, ten wins for the rotation, and five wins for the bullpen. It might seem like an arbitrary number for each, but that is where we got by adding up the players projected to spend most of the season on the 26 man roster.
That leaves us with the four bench players. However, before we get there we should run through some established
caveats. The first and most obvious one is that the Astros historically will use between 35 and 40 players on the season. There will be injuries, promotions, demotions, and trades. Two things can be true at the same time. On the one hand, Dana Brown and Joe Espada can marshal those resources effectively and squeeze out a win or two over the course of the season. On the other hand, we can never assume that. It is what I would call the law of zero. Serendipity is a thing, but it is not a thing any of us can quantify.
The second caveat is very closely related. One commenter argued that one reliever (Teng) would be much better than his projection. I agree. However, there will be players considerably worse than their projection. Obviously, this is where nearly all of the variance in final record comes from. I picked 85 wins because 85 wins is the most likely result. Yet, I would be extremely surprised if they finished 85-77 exactly. I simply view 85 wins is more likely than any other individual projection.
The bench is one place where variance exists because it is based on 250 plate appearances. Some will get more and some less. It should be noted that any player getting more will take at bats away from the regulars. Again, it is the law of zero in effect. So, remember, we are looking for two wins here. As I have done with the other positions, we will see a 90 percent, 75 percent, and 50 percent projection.
Christian Vazquez— 0.5 WAR per 250, 0.5: 90%, 0.4: 75%, 0.3: 50%
I tend to remember a lot of things, but I am not an idiot savant as far as numbers are concerned. I was surprised his career numbers were this low. He has been playing more than a decade and has 6.9 career wins. The last three seasons have not been kind, so Vazquez is settling in as a replacement level guy. That is probably superior to Cesar Salazar by maybe half a win, but the 50 percent mark is probably technically correct because I doubt he gets to 250 at bats.
Nick Allen— 0.4 WAR per 250. 0.4: 90%, 0.3: 75%, 0.2: 50%
Nick “The Stick” Allen might be the very definition of replacement level, but he gets there in a unique way. If he played every day he would probably be worth two wins at least with the glove. He would lose those wins with the bat. So, the key for Espada is limiting his exposure at the plate. He has had two plate appearances so far on the season, but has appeared in most of the games as a defensive replacement. I’m still going 50 percent because I don’t see him getting to 250 plate appearances.
Brice Matthews— 1.6 WAR per 250, 1.4: 90%, 1.2: 75%, 0.7: 50%
Matthews is probably the most volatile of all of these players. It all depends on how much Espada trusts him. If he plays him every day against lefties he will easily get to 250 plate appearances if not more. In that case, if he makes enough contact he could be worth more than a win based on his power and speed. If there is too much swing and miss then he will get sent down or relegated to occasional duty. We have seen both in the early going, so this could go either way. I am taking the 50 percent projection.
Joey Loperfido— 0.7 WAR per 250, 0.6: 90%, 0.5: 75%, 0.4: 50%
Loperfido looks like a semi-regular at this point, so I would project 400 or 450 plate appearances depending on how Espada can shuffle the deck. The 90 percent projection seems like the way to go, but like Matthews he might be more than that. I’ve always liked the cut of his gib, but the numbers are not as optimistic. Early success so far could bolster confidence and help him settle in.
If we add up those wins we get to 1.8 wins or essentially two wins. That gets us to 85-77. Keep in mind our law of zero. We could see guys like Zach Cole later in the season in addition to a bevy of arms that could appear. The law of zero has us assume zero net wins. Is that pessimistic? It might sound like it, but we have to remember that if one player is playing than another is not. So, the net result is zero. Like most Astros fans, I am praying I am wrong. I am hoping they find two or three wins in places we haven’t thought of. What do you think? Are my projections reasonable?
