Make those dinner reservations a couple of hours earlier this year, because the ‘Hoos tipoff against the Ohio State Buckeyes at 8:00 p.m. in Nashville in a non-conference yet colossal-sized basketball game on Valentine’s Day. We are getting closer and closer to Selection Sunday, and this neutral-site affair in Music City is consequential for more teams than just the two playing in it.
Ohio State (16-8, 8-6 Big Ten) finds itself with a solid in-conference record in a tough Big Ten, but has yet to find a signature
win that secures their spot in the NCAA tournament. In fact, they have done the opposite of taking advantage of their numerous opportunities in getting a coveted Quad-1 victory. They are currently 1-7 in Quad 1 games, with their sole victory coming against a sliding Northwestern team (No. 75 NET) on the road.
If the Wildcats were to drop one spot, that game turns into a quadrant two victory, and the Buckeyes would be winless in a category the selection committee values more than anything else.
The Virginia Cavaliers (20-3, 10-2 ACC) are ranked No. 18 in the NET as of Friday and are looking not only to cushion their resume with another quality win, but also to avoid being a bright spot on their opponent’s resume for the fourth time this season. Ohio State currently sits directly on the bubble; some bracketologists have them as one of the last four teams in, and some have them among the first four out.
What to expect out of Ohio State
Other than a team that is going to give the effort of one that is squarely on the bubble, what can Virginia fans expect out of Ohio State? Well, to be frank, a very solid team that doesn’t jump out to you in the majority of categories, but is very capable in all of them.
Pretty vague statement, yet true. For example, Ohio State is the definition of average in three-point shooting. They are shooting at a 34% clip, but the guys who have been attempting the bulk of their shots from behind the arc recently are Bruce Thornton and John Mobley, who both shoot nearly 40% from deep. Those two will be a big threat to the ‘Hoos, who possess the capability to take over a game.
Head coach Jake Diebler doesn’t get much production from his bench, but the starting five provides consistent scoring almost every game. Bruce Thornton, John Mobley Jr., Devin Royal, and Christoph Tilly all average double-digit points per contest, and Amare Bynum is just behind them, averaging 9.2 points. Those five account for over 85% of the Buckeyes scoring, and in six of their eight losses, at least one starter has been held to five points or less.
Keys to victory for Virginia
Limit one of the five
Well, if you followed the last paragraph, this one should be obvious. If Virginia can limit one or more of the Buckeyes’ starters, their chances of leaving Nashville with a win increase dramatically. I like Virginia’s chances of doing so as well, given their vast improvement on the defensive end.
Keep dominating the glass
Virginia has got to take advantage of Ohio State’s one true weakness. They are allowing nearly ten offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 263rd in the nation, but is still under the ‘Hoos team average of 12.4. Still, just the fact that Ohio State carries this struggle should have Virginia licking its chops for second-chance opportunities.
Prediction:
Virginia 81 Ohio State 73
