The Utah Jazz are now 1-4 and are already dealing with major injuries that have forced lineup adjustments. We’re only five games into the season, so this is a small sample size, but it’s all we have.
Even though it’s a small sample size this season, we know these players from seasons past and can make some pretty strong guesses about how certain players will contribute or hurt winning.
To build the lineups, I used information from databallr.com/wowy. It’s a great tool for exploring different lineups and
combinations. That said, let’s get started.
First, we need to look at the starting lineups. To start the season, Will Hardy chose this lineup: Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jaxson Hayes. Here’s the information on that lineup.
If you’re not familiar with Wowy, blue represents poor performance, and yellow is good for those specific metrics. Sometimes that needs context, but it’s a good gauge overall. So, when you look at this, you can see that the second line has the metrics for that lineup, and … it’s bad. Like, really bad. Scoring just 93 points per 100 possessions while allowing 135.7 is terrible. It was just one game of sample size, but it does make you wonder if they spent all of training camp working this lineup and then scrapped it after one game. I’m sure they tried other lineups, but it does make you wonder.
Suggestion for Will Hardy: please don’t use this lineup again, it doesn’t work.
The lineup they moved to put Jaren Jackson at center and insert Ace Bailey in place of Jaxson Hayes. Here’s how that looked.
Immediately better. In 43 minutes, it was mostly a net neutral, but that is a vast improvement over a -42 net rating over 100 possessions. Obviously, that lineup had some issues the Jazz worried about. Utah was clearly worried about rebounding, the biggest concern with Jaren Jackson Jr. A great sign for the Jazz has been the incredible rise of Ace Bailey. For the season, Ace Bailey is averaging 14.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in 27 minutes per game. The numbers are incredible, and they look even better on a per-36 basis: 17.2 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists. If you are skeptical of per-36, Bailey offered a glimpse of what he could do with more minutes: 19 points and 6 rebounds (though he might have had fewer rebounds because Jaxson Hayes started).
The lineup data looks just as good for Ace Bailey as the raw numbers do.
Bailey has a net rating of +17.9 this season, with both a better offense and defense when he plays. Yes, basketball is played on a court, not in algorithms, and Will Hardy deserves credit for building the systems that have helped Bailey succeed, but these numbers are hard to argue with.
Suggestion to Will Hardy: PLAY ACE BAILEY
It was just one game against the San Antonio Spurs, but it was a really impressive one. Utah was without Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. and did a great job of isolating the possessions with Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, and Ace Bailey. Yes, Josh Green and Jaxson Hayes also started and did a solid job in their roles, but I want to focus on the Jazz’s three young stars. Here’s how the numbers look for those three players. Spoiler: it’s very good.
Utah has a +3.5 net rating per 100 possessions when those three play. That’s obviously helped by Ace Bailey’s fantastic impact this season, but it’s a great sign for the Jazz’s future.
Suggestion to Will Hardy: Play this trio!
I also posted a feed post with some fun community nickname ideas for this trio, check it out!
It does make you wonder: How do Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson look, respectively?
Here is Keyonte George.
The numbers are great with George, and it makes you wonder what it would have looked like if George hadn’t been part of that first starting lineup Will Hardy used to start the season. What’s more exciting is that the offense AND the defense are better with him. He’s doing a great job of removing that unfair stigma around his defense.
Against the Spurs, Will Hardy infuriated Jazz fans by sitting Darryn Peterson late. But was it justified? Here’s how Peterson looks so far this season.
Unsurprisingly, Peterson’s offense needs improvement, though it hasn’t been disastrous. His 107.9 offensive rating while he’s on the floor should improve as he adjusts to the NBA. And the thing we know about Peterson is that offense is something he absolutely will do. The thing we didn’t know was how good he’d be defensively. It’s nice to see that the Jazz play better defensively when he’s on the floor. Also, the Jazz have a +1.7 net rating when he’s on the floor so the benching probably didn’t need to happen. Now, maybe there was exhaustion or a minute restriction from the managers that we don’t know about, but things probably look just as good as they would have if Peterson had played. But let’s take a look at Brice Sensabaugh to see his impact, just in case.
So, Utah is worse offensively and WAY worse defensively when Sensabaugh is on the floor. A -24 rating for Sensabaugh is extremely bad. You want evidence that Darryn Peterson needed to stay on the floor? This is it.
Suggestion for Will Hardy: If you are in a situation where you are choosing between Darryn Peterson and Brice Sensabaugh, CHOOSE DARRYN PETERSON!
Now, Utah will likely insert Lauri Markkanen into the starting lineup soon, since he’s day-to-day with his wrist injury. How will that affect the Jazz’s offense when Markkanen re-joins? Well, we know how the Jazz trio has looked. Here’s how Jaxson Hayes has looked.
The answer: not great.
Now, some of this could be because Hayes played in that horrific starting lineup Hardy chose for the first game of the season. He also had to mirror Victor Wembanyama in the Jazz’s latest game, so take this with a grain of salt. That said, this probably signals that the Jazz don’t have a long-term answer at starting center yet.
Now, how has Lauri Markkanen looked this season?
Unsurprisingly, the offense with Markkanen has looked great. That said, the defense has not. Now, this also merits the grain of salt every other lineup has received. Markkanen has looked better this season when he plays the 4 and it’s a good sign that Markkanen has helped the offense this much. A net rating of 4.3 is a great sign for the Jazz to get some wins soon, maybe even a win streak. If Utah can start their next game with a lineup of Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Ace Bailey, Lauri Markkanen, and Jaxson Hayes, they should look really good. Markkanen can help the offense get to another level, and the defensive contributions of Bailey, George, and Peterson should make this Jazz team really interesting.
Suggestion for Will Hardy: Start Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Ace Bailey, Lauri Markkanen, and Jaxson Hayes!
Tomorrow, I’ll look at bench units and how they should look.
