I’m done being a hater. Kansas City Chiefs rookie wide receiver Cyrus Allen looks real. The consistent drumbeat throughout training camp and his performance in the Chiefs’ first preseason game have convinced me the kid can play.
Go ahead and include me among the Cyrus Allen truthers.
But don’t include me among those getting out over my skis on what that means for his production this season. That’s a different story entirely. And it’s less about Allen and more about the situation he’s walking into.
It’s true that the Chiefs’ wide receiver room is not exactly full of known commodities, but let’s not pretend it lacks for talent.
Rashee Rice can be a top-20 receiver in the league when he’s both healthy and has his head on straight. Unfortunately, neither of those factors has proven to be reliable over the past two seasons.
Xavier Worthy has shown promise, but his second season was plagued by injuries.
Tyquan Thornton was encouraging when utilized last season, but his utilization waned as the season progressed.
That’s to say nothing of Travis Kelce, one of the greatest tight ends in the history of the league. He’ll also command his fair share of targets in what could be the final season of his illustrious career.
That’s a lot of mouths to feed, and a lot of targets to project.
This is where the math comes in for 17-game sample sizes.
Rice has averaged roughly 125 targets per 17 games in his NFL career. That would have ranked 15th among NFL pass-catchers last season. Feels about right.
Travis Kelce is probably good for at least 100 targets, even at this stage of his career. Worthy has been around that 100-target threshold when healthy.
Thornton is tougher to project, but a serious threat like him typically earns 50-75 targets. That’s roughly what Marquez Valdes-Scantling finished with annually in his Chiefs tenure, for example.
Add it all up, and that’s approximately 400 targets to the top three wide receivers, plus Kelce.
Add in approximately 75-80 targets for the running backs and another 40 for Noah Gray, and we’re already projecting more than 500 targets without including any of the other ancillary pieces of the offense.
Is now a good time to mention that Patrick Mahomes has averaged approximately 600 pass attempts per season in recent years?
Long story short, we’re left with roughly 80 targets to play with for Cyrus Allen and the rest of the receivers and tight ends. This assumes everyone stays healthy.
Only six wide receivers last season with fewer than 60 targets finished with more than 500 receiving yards. It’s hard to put up significant volume without bulk targets. Thus is life for a third or fourth wide receiver, and the likely fifth or sixth option in the offense.
It goes beyond just what we’ve seen from the Chiefs in recent years, though. Allen will also have to beat the odds as a late-round selection.
There have been 75 wide receivers selected on day 3 of the NFL Draft over the past five years, according to Pro Football Reference. Among those 75 players, 15 had more than 200 receiving yards in their rookie year. Only eight eclipsed the 400-yard plateau. Only two — Amon Ra St. Brown of the Detroit Lions and Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams — finished their rookie year with more than 600 receiving yards.
It’s hard to earn a role as a young player. It’s even harder when you enter the league with little to no draft pedigree.
The track record is slightly more encouraging for rookie wide receivers under head coach Andy Reid, but with a strong caveat we’ll get to.
The Chiefs have drafted nine wide receivers in the Andy Reid era, according to Pro Football Reference. Among those nine, more than half (5) finished their rookie campaign with at least 200 yards. A sixth (Chris Conley) finished with 199 receiving yards. Mecole Hardman (538), Tyreek Hill (593), Xavier Worthy (638) and Rashee Rice (938) each had at least 500 receiving yards as a rookie for the Chiefs.
Impressive list.
The Eagles drafted 13 wide receivers while Andy Reid was at the helm between 1999 and 2012, according to Pro Football Reference. Only four of those 13 finished their rookie campaign with at least 200 receiving yards; Reggie Brown (571), Jeremy Maclin (773), and DeSean Jackson (912) recorded 500+ receiving yards.
Now for the caveat. The vast majority of those big rookie seasons were from wide receivers selected in the first two rounds. Jeremy Maclin (19th), Freddie Mitchell (25th), Xavier Worthy (28th), Reggie Brown (35th), DeSean Jackson (49th), Skyy Moore (54th), Rashee Rice (55th), and Mecole Hardman (56th) were all top-60 selections.
Draft status matters. It leads to early opportunity, and most of those players took advantage of the opportunity granted to them as premium draft picks.
The one outlier in Reid’s tenure as a head coach was Tyreek Hill. He was the 165th overall selection, but we all know he’s a unique case for a million different reasons. He’s a special talent, and his production reflected as much as a rookie.
Allen was selected in the fifth round with the 176th overall selection. Players selected at that point in the draft aren’t even a lock to make the roster, much less to contribute in a meaningful way as a rookie. Allen already looks like a home run selection, regardless of what the production states as a rookie.
My personal projection for Allen this season? 30 receptions for 350 yards.
Those are approximately the numbers JuJu Smith-Schuster produced a year ago. Replicating that kind of production as a rookie is a heck of a starting point for a fifth-round pick.
The hype is real. The excitement is hard to contain. Let’s just keep on-field expectations realistic so we don’t walk away from Allen’s rookie season feeling disappointed with what would otherwise be a heck of a debut campaign.
What is your statistical projection for Allen this season?
