Last week was a bloodbath for pickers and projection systems. Oregon lost to Oklahoma State, the Huskies barely squeaked out a win over Utah St, Michigan bounced back from their disastrous Week 1, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together… MASS HYSTERIA!
All that considered, I will live with a 4-2 record (2-4 ATS). As always, the lines come from the FanDuel Sports Book.
Eastern Washington @ Washington (-42.5)
Forty-two-point-five points??? Did the oddsmakers see what Washington did offensively
over the last two weeks? Sure, the Huskies haven’t played FCS competition, but they should have physical advantages over Washington St and Utah St that were never apparent when they had the ball. Winning a game by six TDs obviously requires a team to score at least six TDs and the Dawgs have done nothing through two weeks to indicate that could be attainable.
QB Nate Bell has carried the offense with 260 passing yards per game. However, Eastern has struggled in the trenches and the UW defensive line should be able to get penetration and make him uncomfortable. The Eagles have only averaged 3.7 yards per carry against three FCS teams and the UW defense has been fantastic against better opposition.
The bigger question is whether the offense can start to right the ship. They have not blocked well and they continue to lose skill position players who could make up for the lack of great blocking. Rashid Williams has joined Christian Moss, Jordan Washington, Jayden Limar, and Quaid Carr on the list of walking wounded. Demond Williams has been erratic so far and his depth options are getting thinner. I expect the outcome to be a step in the right direction. I think the offensive line has the talent to play better and there is still good talent at WR. However, I don’t think there’s anything near enough attacking talent to win by 42.5.
Washington 35 – Eastern Washington 10
USC @ Rutgers (+23.5)
As well as USC has played so far, there are some structural reasons to like Rutgers here. The Trojans have to go on the road for the first time this year, it is a cross-country trip, and kickoff will be quite early for them (12:30 PT). Rutgers has not run the ball as well as they would like so far this year and will need to improve to slow this game down. They also haven’t defended very well in losses to UMass and BC. Still, I think USC can win comfortably without covering a pretty big number.
USC 37 – Rutgers 17
Virginia Tech @ Maryland (+3)
While VT is the favorite, neither team has played the kind of competition to feel confident one way or the other. Maryland has a bit more stability, including Malik Washington at QB and Mike Locksley as the HC. James Franklin has not traveled outside of Blacksburg yet with the Hokies. The game may be more important for VT for exactly that reason- they need the early win more for program momentum, while expectations are not so high for the Terps.
Virginia Tech 30 – Maryland 28
Colorado @ Northwestern (-3.5)
Remember how much hype there was around Deion Sanders and Colorado a couple years ago? The team hasn’t changed so much, but the PR machine has moved on. Julian Lewis has played well at QB for the Buffs, but the weather forecast for the game is poor. They have also struggled with penalties and special teams. At home, in bad weather, I like Northwestern’s ground-and-pound attack.
Northwestern 27 – Colorado 17
Michigan St @ Notre Dame (-29.5)
The Pat Fitzgerald era has started with promise in East Lansing, but this primetime trip to play one of the top teams in the country is not quite the same as beating Eastern Michigan. The Irish have the #1 offense in the country by SP+. They have run the ball more, but had more explosiveness through the air behind CJ Carr. The spread is big, but the Irish already beat a fairly similar team in Wisconsin by 28 at a neutral site.
Notre Dame 45 – Michigan St 14
Purdue @ UCLA (-14)
The two-TD spread speaks to the different speed of the rebuilding processes for these teams. UCLA has run the ball extremely well in Bob Chesney’s first two games, including an impressive win over Cal. Purdue showed signs of life in an OT loss to Boston College. Alas, their losing streak against P4 opponents persists. I think that will last for at least another week.
UCLA 38 – Purdue 20
